Riggy is done - Judiciary knows realpolitik - he cant work with Ruto - thursday or so - the conservatory orders will be set aside - and Kindiki will be sworn in.
RiggyG without answering how he navigated politics while impeached and permanently barred will go nowhere. He will certainly try to form a new party. Jubilee/Kenyattas will attack him.
AU/ODM is long play. AU we got Feb - and Raila will knick that. But If I was Ruto - I would not give ODM any more ground - without them agreeing to STRONG COUPLING with UDA - that means negotiation on proper merger and them getting out opposition.
Short play is to keep GEMA in somewhat functional - at least the 80 out 89 Mps/Senators - will want to continue being in GOK.
Kindiki - will have to work hard to justify being DPORK - he can at least work hard in Mt kenya East - and if he loses - he get fired.
Kiunjuri & RV diaspora are ones really worried about yet another war with RV - and they are going to be willing to listen to Ruto.
Central Proper/Kikuyu - are beating the drums of war from their comfort in Muranga/Kiambu/Nyeri - Ruto should cut that off - leave it for Muhoho Kenyatta - RiggyG is done kaput.
Wait first for Riggy fate to be sealed in court. If he is rescued expect big problems as he declare victory with vindication.
Second, Raila AU outcome. If he lose expect problems. For one if Ruto is to be endorsed with ODM getting DPORK, they will demand UDA dissolve into original home ODM as a guarantee at a minimum.
It will be a mountain to accommodate ODM and keep GEMA crumbs.
