Nowayaha - come for Tutorial - Leaders Versus Ground

[RV Pundit]

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Mps are good indicator - ground ikichnage - they change. MPs have high self-preservation. 60-70% comeback historical. If Ruto is unpopular in central - MPs will abandon him.

Of course smart Mps know it too early to move now. They have to milk Ruto and KK gov to the last minute.

2026/2027 hapo ni re-alignment. Mps in each region will make the moves. They will be watching regional BIG BOYS - Ruto, Raila, Uhuru, Weta, MaDVD, Kalonzos.

RiggyG has brought FUJO too early. Most mps yet to repay Loans they used to win the seats and you're telling them to follow the ground to BANKRUPTCY AND OPPOSITION AND JAIL.

To go to opposition in 2nd year? Mt kenya MPs will stick with GOV until late 2026 for early movers. Hii ujinga ya RiggyG ya sijui DEC deadline is why all MPs are lynching him.

Late movers like Wamuchumba did - will switch few days to nomination in April 2027.

[RV Pundit]

In summary - Btw Now and Late 2026 - NO leader give a damn about ground. In fact some dont even go to ground that much - until 2026 when next election cycle starts.

Gachagua trust me will LOOSE all MPS and Senators - esp if his finance are predictably BLOCKED by ARA and EACC in few coming days.  He will retain only MPs he can be able to finance weekly.

All Mt kenya MPS will troop to Statehouse. They will tell the ground - Let milk Ruto gov - and then decide in 2026/2027 vile kutaenda.

[mankind]

  Pundit I don't understand why Ruto is setting himself up for an unnecessary confrontation. If what Gachagua is being accused of is true why not do something like a parliamentary inquiry then use the recommendations for further action. Impeachment is a very divisive process.The other problem is the precedent that is being set is very dangerous for everyone. Nobody is clean in Kenya politically and once you set a precedent then the same broom will sweep majority of the political class.

  This Gachagua thing looks to me like a supremacy fight in kikuyu nation but Ruto is getting dragged into it. Remember Ruto has a problem with Nandi too and someone can easily exploit that. The president needs to be the bigger person here and diffuse this fight.Gachagua might be an asshole but in a country where tribal nations are the cornerstone of the State, one has to learn how to work with assholes.

[Nowayhaha]

Mps are not a good indicator of popularity on ground . However I agree with you on the rest smae thing I have been saying.
Mps is all about being bought , why Ruto wants to do away with Gachagua now is specifically two reasons to be able to still sway Mt Kenya voters or in his calculation worst case scenario remain with a third .
Unfortunately for Mps this came in the first term unlike last time in second term where they have to chose a side
Mps in general and especially in Mt Kenya have calculated that they need to eat as its still early and secondly have a survival chance if Gachagua is sent to political oblivion like Sonko and Waititu . They are still measuring the options and once they realise it to hostile you will see what is happening with Muranga Mps they remove themselves from the circus and you will when it becomes hotter some will be absent during the impeachment .
Ofcourse just like the Wamuchombas /Kangatas /Sakajas in last parliament once the next election in near they will troop to the party of mashinanis choice.

Now having said that Gachaguas impeachment is a big miscalculation . The ground was already boiling with anger due to economic issues now in Mt Kenya is got worse when Ruto betrayed them and brought in Raila , now coupled with impeachment for no reason at all they feel double betrayed . The memories of 2007 come back and it shows that Uhuru was right not to trust Ruto ( I dont believe in that ).
The ground will never believe another person who is not from Mt Kenya and will be more united and adamant to win 2027 like never before , Same mistake Raila did in 2007 when he mudsligned Kibaki and advocated for 41 vs 1 and kabila adui .
Ruto didnt learn from Jubilee 1 , where you maintain your winning formula and broaden your voters basket . Now GENZ happened and has decided to lose 2 birds in search of one additional .

Same thing Moi did in 2002, I think its a Rift Valley thing . Once power enterers their heads they think they can do anything . It took Raila 2 years to know you need GEMA to enter statehouse  , Ruto will be out before or by 2027 . If this goes through and I hope it does it kills the deputy President as dangling carrot . Every one will vie for Presidency.
As for Mps 60-70% of them will not make it back . Even with dierect nominations …..

[RV Pundit]

How thick-headed are folks?
Gachagua want to Kill Ruto so he can become President.
Ruto must remove Gachagua NOW.
Otherwise he is dead man walking.

After removing Gachagua - he will crush him pole pole.

Gachagua remember is suspected for killing Nyeri Gov Gakuru Wahome so he can eat with Mwalimu Kahiga.

Ruto already has intelligence that say RIggyG has actively - not once - but thrice - attempted to kill him.
You have heard of poisoning - allegations from Moses Kuria - RVHH confirms.
You have heard of NIS - Gen Z - DCIs.

  Pundit I don't understand why Ruto is setting himself up for an unnecessary confrontation. If what Gachagua is being accused of is true why not do something like a parliamentary inquiry then use the recommendations for further action. Impeachment is a very divisive process.The other problem is the precedent that is being set is very dangerous for everyone. Nobody is clean in Kenya politically and once you set a precedent then the same broom will sweep majority of the political class.

  This Gachagua thing looks to me like a supremacy fight in kikuyu nation but Ruto is getting dragged into it. Remember Ruto has a problem with Nandi too and someone can easily exploit that. The president needs to be the bigger person here and diffuse this fight.Gachagua might be an asshole but in a country where tribal nations are the cornerstone of the State, one has to learn how to work with assholes.

[RV Pundit]

Mt kenya treachery is well known since pre-colonial period.
Last election you bucked the trend of betrayal (Luos can make a song) - I think because you feared for 2007 blowout.
Even know this likely one biggest problem - Mt kenya faces - they cant go hard on Ruto for that reason
So it just murmuring and whispering - cant start war.

Ruto was always standing on shaky grounds there.
Even if he didnt do nothing to Gachagua - you guys were out - long time ago.
Ruto has been on Plan B - starting with elevation of MADVD to proper Prime Minister.
And now ODM/Raila-AU.

In short Ruto will assume he will get Zero from Kikuyus.
If he had hopes - he would have put Ndidi Nyoro - but hiyo CHAPTER CLOSED - Kikuyu vote Zero to Ruto and its fine.
He is putting Kindiki to test waters.
If Mt Kenya East follow Kikuyus to opposition - Kindiki will be fired too.

If Kindiki doesnt fly - as is likely - Ruto will go elsewhere - mostly ODM merger.

Ruto does 50-50 with reliable ODM - and we move on.

This alliance that already gave ODM of the yore - victory in 2007 - and kibaki rigged.

Ruto on his own - will definitely be the man to beat - because Kalonzo is useless - Mt kenya dont have leader they can sell in Kenya - maybe sell within themselves - otherwise Gachagua nobody can buy,  muhoho same, etc.

So hapa Mt Kenya will decide - back Kalonzo or Matiangi or their own - or even Raila - and Ruto will work on Moi like small tribes coalition - and then do a merger - as he has 2032 to flock to suitors. If you get Raila - you lose Kalonzo. Ruto will need only 10%.

Mps are not a good indicator of popularity on ground . However I agree with you on the rest smae thing I have been saying.
Mps is all about being bought , why Ruto wants to do away with Gachagua now is specifically two reasons to be able to still sway Mt Kenya voters or in his calculation worst case scenario remain with a third .
Unfortunately for Mps this came in the first term unlike last time in second term where they have to chose a side
Mps in general and especially in Mt Kenya have calculated that they need to eat as its still early and secondly have a survival chance if Gachagua is sent to political oblivion like Sonko and Waititu . They are still measuring the options and once they realise it to hostile you will see what is happening with Muranga Mps they remove themselves from the circus and you will when it becomes hotter some will be absent during the impeachment .
Ofcourse just like the Wamuchombas /Kangatas /Sakajas in last parliament once the next election in near they will troop to the party of mashinanis choice.

Now having said that Gachaguas impeachment is a big miscalculation . The ground was already boiling with anger due to economic issues now in Mt Kenya is got worse when Ruto betrayed them and brought in Raila , now coupled with impeachment for no reason at all they feel double betrayed . The memories of 2007 come back and it shows that Uhuru was right not to trust Ruto ( I dont believe in that ).
The ground will never believe another person who is not from Mt Kenya and will be more united and adamant to win 2027 like never before , Same mistake Raila did in 2007 when he mudsligned Kibaki and advocated for 41 vs 1 and kabila adui .
Ruto didnt learn from Jubilee 1 , where you maintain your winning formula and broaden your voters basket . Now GENZ happened and has decided to lose 2 birds in search of one additional .

Same thing Moi did in 2002, I think its a Rift Valley thing . Once power enterers their heads they think they can do anything . It took Raila 2 years to know you need GEMA to enter statehouse  , Ruto will be out before or by 2027 . If this goes through and I hope it does it kills the deputy President as dangling carrot . Every one will vie for Presidency.
As for Mps 60-70% of them will not make it back . Even with dierect nominations …..

[Nowayhaha]

When you see pundit talking from both ends of his mouth , just know Ruto has problems and he has realized it only that he doesnt want to acknowledge as he is mshindani tu .
One end he is saying MPs are an indicator of poluraity next thing he says its all about enjoying money and loans the the other end Mps will start switching grounds when next elections are near .
So which is which Pundit . Doesnt this confirm what we have all been saying all these years that MPs will vote with their stomachs in parliament and really their vote does not translate to popularity on ground .
Good example is the recent Taxation bill didnt the Mps vote to pass it then kilipoumana on ground were the first to apologize . Seems you cant remember what even happened 3 Months ago . Kiarie , Ichungwa , Sudi etc Just like them you want to be the proverbial ostrich  .
 

  Pundit I don't understand why Ruto is setting himself up for an unnecessary confrontation. If what Gachagua is being accused of is true why not do something like a parliamentary inquiry then use the recommendations for further action. Impeachment is a very divisive process.The other problem is the precedent that is being set is very dangerous for everyone. Nobody is clean in Kenya politically and once you set a precedent then the same broom will sweep majority of the political class.

  This Gachagua thing looks to me like a supremacy fight in kikuyu nation but Ruto is getting dragged into it. Remember Ruto has a problem with Nandi too and someone can easily exploit that. The president needs to be the bigger person here and diffuse this fight.Gachagua might be an asshole but in a country where tribal nations are the cornerstone of the State, one has to learn how to work with assholes.

[RV Pundit]

Political neophytes being advised by Wambugu with IQ like yours dont get this ground game.
Politics is TIMING.
Yes Mt kenya ground will definitely become slippery.
Ruto already knew that.
Infact I read from the Economist last year - a nice analysis - on Ruto game plan.

Mt kenya MPS will generally continue to support Ruto and give wide berth to RiggyG

Hapo 2026 - if Ruto would have failed to recover ground - they will join RiggyG-Uhuru thing

When you see pundit talking from both ends of his mouth , just know Ruto has problems and he has realized it only that he doesnt want to acknowledge as he is mshindani tu .
One end he is saying MPs are an indicator of poluraity next thing he says its all about enjoying money and loans the the other end Mps will start switching grounds when next elections are near .
So which is which Pundit . Doesnt this confirm what we have all been saying all these years that MPs will vote with their stomachs in parliament and really their vote does not translate to popularity on ground .
Good example is the recent Taxation bill didnt the Mps vote to pass it then kilipoumana on ground were the first to apologize . Seems you cant remember what even happened 3 Months ago . Kiarie , Ichungwa , Sudi etc Just like them you want to be the proverbial ostrich  .
 

[mankind]

How thick-headed are folks?
Gachagua want to Kill Ruto so he can become President.
Ruto must remove Gachagua NOW.
Otherwise he is dead man walking.

After removing Gachagua - he will crush him pole pole.

Gachagua remember is suspected for killing Nyeri Gov Gakuru Wahome so he can eat with Mwalimu Kahiga.

Ruto already has intelligence that say RIggyG has actively - not once - but thrice - attempted to kill him.
You have heard of poisoning - allegations from Moses Kuria - RVHH confirms.
You have heard of NIS - Gen Z - DCIs.

  Pundit I don't understand why Ruto is setting himself up for an unnecessary confrontation. If what Gachagua is being accused of is true why not do something like a parliamentary inquiry then use the recommendations for further action. Impeachment is a very divisive process.The other problem is the precedent that is being set is very dangerous for everyone. Nobody is clean in Kenya politically and once you set a precedent then the same broom will sweep majority of the political class.

  This Gachagua thing looks to me like a supremacy fight in kikuyu nation but Ruto is getting dragged into it. Remember Ruto has a problem with Nandi too and someone can easily exploit that. The president needs to be the bigger person here and diffuse this fight.Gachagua might be an asshole but in a country where tribal nations are the cornerstone of the State, one has to learn how to work with assholes.

   I think some of those allegations are sensationalism. There's no way you can kill Ruto without so many things blowing up. The only way to do it would be with the military which is almost impossible or with the support of a big superpower behind it. If Ruto survived Uhuru madharau, you bet he can take care of himself as president. I agree Gachagua and other elements might have tried to undermine the government using the gen Z craziness. There was not much that was wrong with the finance bill but lots of misinformation.
 
  As I said earlier this Gachagua thing started as a supremacy battle in kikuyu nation and Ruto should not be drawn into it. Remember the kikuyu elite were against Ruto but the common folks supported him. This is the group that has not accepted him as president and will take advantage of the fallout.

[RV Pundit]

Again I dont have 411 - like RVHH - and folks near Ruto.
I dont know if true or false - but definitely knowing Gachagua - pugnaciousness i wont put it past him
We also have Ken Michungu - saying during height of Gen Z - RiggyG told 5 Cs in his office that Ruto should resign
And let him take charge.

Anyway Ruto has decided. Its his political fate. Not mine.

We crossed the Rubicon.
RiggyG is gone.
I dont see how Ruto can pull back now.

Post RiggyG - we see if Ruto can repair relationship with Mt Kenya - or he goes elsewhere.

   I think some of those allegations are sensationalism. There's no way you can kill Ruto without so many things blowing up. The only way to do it would be with the military which is almost impossible or with the support of a big superpower behind it. If Ruto survived Uhuru madharau, you bet he can take care of himself as president. I agree Gachagua and other elements might have tried to undermine the government using the gen Z craziness. There was not much that was wrong with the finance bill but lots of misinformation.
 
  As I said earlier this Gachagua thing started as a supremacy battle in kikuyu nation and Ruto should not be drawn into it. Remember the kikuyu elite were against Ruto but the common folks supported him. This is the group that has not accepted him as president and will take advantage of the fallout.

[Nowayhaha]

Now it has gone to Pre Colonial treachery and use of Violence as means of coercing to get votes . Mind you these are different generations and different constitutional dispensation.
Mt Kenya voted for Ruto because he stood with them in 2013 and 2017 and most importantly Uhuru betrayed him by working and supporting Raila .
Rutos made a mistake in his early days of presidency by miscalculating on economic policy and using his cronies to loot he realized it to late and tried to correct that using politics by bringing Raila in Govt  , something he had been against and the reason he won Presidency as he looked like a person who could stand on principle and stop the politics of deceit .

Why blame Mt Kenya for impeachment of Gachagua if the main reason it to avert Mt Kenya breaking away or Dividing them .

When you look at things as they are you will realize indeed Ruto is making another mistake . Not has he lost Mt Kenya but made them to always support their own and with this constitution it will be hard to beat them .

Ruto should just have learnt from Jubilee 1 make your Bridesmaid happy until next election . Remember how Uhuru was always with Ruto , there was a time he handed over Presidency to him when he went to Hague . This made him the darling to Rift Valley and come 2017 they were singing songs for Uhuru more than even Mt Kenya . Once he won his second term even before Supreme Court had affirmed his election he came out gun blazing saying he is the President . Now Ruto is doing that hoping to win second term . Good luck with that he will be posjtion 3 come 2027 , simply because of Miscalculation , Moi miscalculated in 2002 and it cost him same with Ruto .

Mt kenya treachery is well known since pre-colonial period.
Last election you bucked the trend of betrayal (Luos can make a song) - I think because you feared for 2007 blowout.
Even know this likely one biggest problem - Mt kenya faces - they cant go hard on Ruto for that reason
So it just murmuring and whispering - cant start war.

Ruto was always standing on shaky grounds there.
Even if he didnt do nothing to Gachagua - you guys were out - long time ago.
Ruto has been on Plan B - starting with elevation of MADVD to proper Prime Minister.
And now ODM/Raila-AU.

In short Ruto will assume he will get Zero from Kikuyus.
If he had hopes - he would have put Ndidi Nyoro - but hiyo CHAPTER CLOSED - Kikuyu vote Zero to Ruto and its fine.
He is putting Kindiki to test waters.
If Mt Kenya East follow Kikuyus to opposition - Kindiki will be fired too.

If Kindiki doesnt fly - as is likely - Ruto will go elsewhere - mostly ODM merger.

Ruto does 50-50 with reliable ODM - and we move on.

This alliance that already gave ODM of the yore - victory in 2007 - and kibaki rigged.

Ruto on his own - will definitely be the man to beat - because Kalonzo is useless - Mt kenya dont have leader they can sell in Kenya - maybe sell within themselves - otherwise Gachagua nobody can buy,  muhoho same, etc.

So hapa Mt Kenya will decide - back Kalonzo or Matiangi or their own - or even Raila - and Ruto will work on Moi like small tribes coalition - and then do a merger - as he has 2032 to flock to suitors. If you get Raila - you lose Kalonzo. Ruto will need only 10%.

Mps are not a good indicator of popularity on ground . However I agree with you on the rest smae thing I have been saying.
Mps is all about being bought , why Ruto wants to do away with Gachagua now is specifically two reasons to be able to still sway Mt Kenya voters or in his calculation worst case scenario remain with a third .
Unfortunately for Mps this came in the first term unlike last time in second term where they have to chose a side
Mps in general and especially in Mt Kenya have calculated that they need to eat as its still early and secondly have a survival chance if Gachagua is sent to political oblivion like Sonko and Waititu . They are still measuring the options and once they realise it to hostile you will see what is happening with Muranga Mps they remove themselves from the circus and you will when it becomes hotter some will be absent during the impeachment .
Ofcourse just like the Wamuchombas /Kangatas /Sakajas in last parliament once the next election in near they will troop to the party of mashinanis choice.

Now having said that Gachaguas impeachment is a big miscalculation . The ground was already boiling with anger due to economic issues now in Mt Kenya is got worse when Ruto betrayed them and brought in Raila , now coupled with impeachment for no reason at all they feel double betrayed . The memories of 2007 come back and it shows that Uhuru was right not to trust Ruto ( I dont believe in that ).
The ground will never believe another person who is not from Mt Kenya and will be more united and adamant to win 2027 like never before , Same mistake Raila did in 2007 when he mudsligned Kibaki and advocated for 41 vs 1 and kabila adui .
Ruto didnt learn from Jubilee 1 , where you maintain your winning formula and broaden your voters basket . Now GENZ happened and has decided to lose 2 birds in search of one additional .

Same thing Moi did in 2002, I think its a Rift Valley thing . Once power enterers their heads they think they can do anything . It took Raila 2 years to know you need GEMA to enter statehouse  , Ruto will be out before or by 2027 . If this goes through and I hope it does it kills the deputy President as dangling carrot . Every one will vie for Presidency.
As for Mps 60-70% of them will not make it back . Even with dierect nominations …..

[RV Pundit]

Mt kenya cannot win Nairobi governorship with 35% of the population;
Leave alone Kenya
I dont know if you know that kikuyu population is now 15% hapo.
It almost equal to Kalenjin and Luhya..14/15%.
In fact Luhyas could be more now.
You combine Luhya+Kalenjin - give maDVD DPORK - you already hit 30% - against GEMA 22% (and falling)

As years go - by - kikuyu population is dropping - new tribes like Somalis are coming up.

Update yourself and realize next insular kikuyu winning president in kenya wont be in this lifetime.

Try Nairobi kwanza.

Now it has gone to Pre Colonial treachery and use of Violence as means of coercing to get votes . Mind you these are different generations and different constitutional dispensation.
Mt Kenya voted for Ruto because he stood with them in 2013 and 2017 and most importantly Uhuru betrayed him by working and supporting Raila .
Rutos made a mistake in his early days of presidency by miscalculating on economic policy and using his cronies to loot he realized it to late and tried to correct that using politics by bringing Raila in Govt  , something he had been against and the reason he won Presidency as he looked like a person who could stand on principle and stop the politics of deceit .

Why blame Mt Kenya for impeachment of Gachagua if the main reason it to avert Mt Kenya breaking away or Dividing them .

When you look at things as they are you will realize indeed Ruto is making another mistake . Not has he lost Mt Kenya but made them to always support their own and with this constitution it will be hard to beat them .

Ruto should just have learnt from Jubilee 1 make your Bridesmaid happy until next election . Remember how Uhuru was always with Ruto , there was a time he handed over Presidency to him when he went to Hague . This made him the darling to Rift Valley and come 2017 they were singing songs for Uhuru more than even Mt Kenya . Once he won his second term even before Supreme Court had affirmed his election he came out gun blazing saying he is the President . Now Ruto is doing that hoping to win second term . Good luck with that he will be posjtion 3 come 2027 , simply because of Miscalculation , Moi miscalculated in 2002 and it cost him same with Ruto .

Mt kenya treachery is well known since pre-colonial period.
Last election you bucked the trend of betrayal (Luos can make a song) - I think because you feared for 2007 blowout.
Even know this likely one biggest problem - Mt kenya faces - they cant go hard on Ruto for that reason
So it just murmuring and whispering - cant start war.

Ruto was always standing on shaky grounds there.
Even if he didnt do nothing to Gachagua - you guys were out - long time ago.
Ruto has been on Plan B - starting with elevation of MADVD to proper Prime Minister.
And now ODM/Raila-AU.

In short Ruto will assume he will get Zero from Kikuyus.
If he had hopes - he would have put Ndidi Nyoro - but hiyo CHAPTER CLOSED - Kikuyu vote Zero to Ruto and its fine.
He is putting Kindiki to test waters.
If Mt Kenya East follow Kikuyus to opposition - Kindiki will be fired too.

If Kindiki doesnt fly - as is likely - Ruto will go elsewhere - mostly ODM merger.

Ruto does 50-50 with reliable ODM - and we move on.

This alliance that already gave ODM of the yore - victory in 2007 - and kibaki rigged.

Ruto on his own - will definitely be the man to beat - because Kalonzo is useless - Mt kenya dont have leader they can sell in Kenya - maybe sell within themselves - otherwise Gachagua nobody can buy,  muhoho same, etc.

So hapa Mt Kenya will decide - back Kalonzo or Matiangi or their own - or even Raila - and Ruto will work on Moi like small tribes coalition - and then do a merger - as he has 2032 to flock to suitors. If you get Raila - you lose Kalonzo. Ruto will need only 10%.

Mps are not a good indicator of popularity on ground . However I agree with you on the rest smae thing I have been saying.
Mps is all about being bought , why Ruto wants to do away with Gachagua now is specifically two reasons to be able to still sway Mt Kenya voters or in his calculation worst case scenario remain with a third .
Unfortunately for Mps this came in the first term unlike last time in second term where they have to chose a side
Mps in general and especially in Mt Kenya have calculated that they need to eat as its still early and secondly have a survival chance if Gachagua is sent to political oblivion like Sonko and Waititu . They are still measuring the options and once they realise it to hostile you will see what is happening with Muranga Mps they remove themselves from the circus and you will when it becomes hotter some will be absent during the impeachment .
Ofcourse just like the Wamuchombas /Kangatas /Sakajas in last parliament once the next election in near they will troop to the party of mashinanis choice.

Now having said that Gachaguas impeachment is a big miscalculation . The ground was already boiling with anger due to economic issues now in Mt Kenya is got worse when Ruto betrayed them and brought in Raila , now coupled with impeachment for no reason at all they feel double betrayed . The memories of 2007 come back and it shows that Uhuru was right not to trust Ruto ( I dont believe in that ).
The ground will never believe another person who is not from Mt Kenya and will be more united and adamant to win 2027 like never before , Same mistake Raila did in 2007 when he mudsligned Kibaki and advocated for 41 vs 1 and kabila adui .
Ruto didnt learn from Jubilee 1 , where you maintain your winning formula and broaden your voters basket . Now GENZ happened and has decided to lose 2 birds in search of one additional .

Same thing Moi did in 2002, I think its a Rift Valley thing . Once power enterers their heads they think they can do anything . It took Raila 2 years to know you need GEMA to enter statehouse  , Ruto will be out before or by 2027 . If this goes through and I hope it does it kills the deputy President as dangling carrot . Every one will vie for Presidency.
As for Mps 60-70% of them will not make it back . Even with dierect nominations …..

[Nowayhaha]

You are right there is no way that can be done and think you can Govern Kenya . Hiyo ni porojo.
You also are right once Ruto  started working with Raila , Gachagua opposed for more or less similar reasons Ruto did under Uhuru and seems his relationship with Ruto went south . When Genz happened he tried to take advantage its presume he sponsored the state goons but NIS says the opposite . Once Raila was brought to cut eaze Genz threat , Ruto decided to use the numbers to cut Gachagua to size before he gets a clout which might  affect Rutos grasp on Mt Kenya . A mistake which he will pay dearly by becoming No 3 in 2027 .

How thick-headed are folks?
Gachagua want to Kill Ruto so he can become President.
Ruto must remove Gachagua NOW.
Otherwise he is dead man walking.

After removing Gachagua - he will crush him pole pole.

Gachagua remember is suspected for killing Nyeri Gov Gakuru Wahome so he can eat with Mwalimu Kahiga.

Ruto already has intelligence that say RIggyG has actively - not once - but thrice - attempted to kill him.
You have heard of poisoning - allegations from Moses Kuria - RVHH confirms.
You have heard of NIS - Gen Z - DCIs.

  Pundit I don't understand why Ruto is setting himself up for an unnecessary confrontation. If what Gachagua is being accused of is true why not do something like a parliamentary inquiry then use the recommendations for further action. Impeachment is a very divisive process.The other problem is the precedent that is being set is very dangerous for everyone. Nobody is clean in Kenya politically and once you set a precedent then the same broom will sweep majority of the political class.

  This Gachagua thing looks to me like a supremacy fight in kikuyu nation but Ruto is getting dragged into it. Remember Ruto has a problem with Nandi too and someone can easily exploit that. The president needs to be the bigger person here and diffuse this fight.Gachagua might be an asshole but in a country where tribal nations are the cornerstone of the State, one has to learn how to work with assholes.

   I think some of those allegations are sensationalism. There's no way you can kill Ruto without so many things blowing up. The only way to do it would be with the military which is almost impossible or with the support of a big superpower behind it. If Ruto survived Uhuru madharau, you bet he can take care of himself as president. I agree Gachagua and other elements might have tried to undermine the government using the gen Z craziness. There was not much that was wrong with the finance bill but lots of misinformation.
 
  As I said earlier this Gachagua thing started as a supremacy battle in kikuyu nation and Ruto should not be drawn into it. Remember the kikuyu elite were against Ruto but the common folks supported him. This is the group that has not accepted him as president and will take advantage of the fallout.

[Nowayhaha]

Mudavadi who could not sway Luhya votes in 2002 , Mudavadi who only got afew thousands in 2013 when he stood for Presidency ,
How many votes he brought to Kenya Kwanza in 2022 . Even in his County couldnt make Ruto beat Raila .
The Somalis you are yapping about voted for Kibaki and Uhuru en mass . Ruto could not match what Kibaki and Uhuru did , Raila for the first time since vying in 2007 won the Somali votes , How come Somalis were voting for GEMA candidates and couldnt do the same for Ruto .
There you now see why your likes are failing in Kenyan Governance .

Mt kenya cannot win Nairobi governorship with 35% of the population;
Leave alone Kenya
I dont know if you know that kikuyu population is now 15% hapo.
It almost equal to Kalenjin and Luhya..14/15%.
In fact Luhyas could be more now.
You combine Luhya+Kalenjin - give maDVD DPORK - you already hit 30% - against GEMA 22% (and falling)

As years go - by - kikuyu population is dropping - new tribes like Somalis are coming up.

Update yourself and realize next insular kikuyu winning president in kenya wont be in this lifetime.

Try Nairobi kwanza.

Now it has gone to Pre Colonial treachery and use of Violence as means of coercing to get votes . Mind you these are different generations and different constitutional dispensation.
Mt Kenya voted for Ruto because he stood with them in 2013 and 2017 and most importantly Uhuru betrayed him by working and supporting Raila .
Rutos made a mistake in his early days of presidency by miscalculating on economic policy and using his cronies to loot he realized it to late and tried to correct that using politics by bringing Raila in Govt  , something he had been against and the reason he won Presidency as he looked like a person who could stand on principle and stop the politics of deceit .

Why blame Mt Kenya for impeachment of Gachagua if the main reason it to avert Mt Kenya breaking away or Dividing them .

When you look at things as they are you will realize indeed Ruto is making another mistake . Not has he lost Mt Kenya but made them to always support their own and with this constitution it will be hard to beat them .

Ruto should just have learnt from Jubilee 1 make your Bridesmaid happy until next election . Remember how Uhuru was always with Ruto , there was a time he handed over Presidency to him when he went to Hague . This made him the darling to Rift Valley and come 2017 they were singing songs for Uhuru more than even Mt Kenya . Once he won his second term even before Supreme Court had affirmed his election he came out gun blazing saying he is the President . Now Ruto is doing that hoping to win second term . Good luck with that he will be posjtion 3 come 2027 , simply because of Miscalculation , Moi miscalculated in 2002 and it cost him same with Ruto .

Mt kenya treachery is well known since pre-colonial period.
Last election you bucked the trend of betrayal (Luos can make a song) - I think because you feared for 2007 blowout.
Even know this likely one biggest problem - Mt kenya faces - they cant go hard on Ruto for that reason
So it just murmuring and whispering - cant start war.

Ruto was always standing on shaky grounds there.
Even if he didnt do nothing to Gachagua - you guys were out - long time ago.
Ruto has been on Plan B - starting with elevation of MADVD to proper Prime Minister.
And now ODM/Raila-AU.

In short Ruto will assume he will get Zero from Kikuyus.
If he had hopes - he would have put Ndidi Nyoro - but hiyo CHAPTER CLOSED - Kikuyu vote Zero to Ruto and its fine.
He is putting Kindiki to test waters.
If Mt Kenya East follow Kikuyus to opposition - Kindiki will be fired too.

If Kindiki doesnt fly - as is likely - Ruto will go elsewhere - mostly ODM merger.

Ruto does 50-50 with reliable ODM - and we move on.

This alliance that already gave ODM of the yore - victory in 2007 - and kibaki rigged.

Ruto on his own - will definitely be the man to beat - because Kalonzo is useless - Mt kenya dont have leader they can sell in Kenya - maybe sell within themselves - otherwise Gachagua nobody can buy,  muhoho same, etc.

So hapa Mt Kenya will decide - back Kalonzo or Matiangi or their own - or even Raila - and Ruto will work on Moi like small tribes coalition - and then do a merger - as he has 2032 to flock to suitors. If you get Raila - you lose Kalonzo. Ruto will need only 10%.

Mps are not a good indicator of popularity on ground . However I agree with you on the rest smae thing I have been saying.
Mps is all about being bought , why Ruto wants to do away with Gachagua now is specifically two reasons to be able to still sway Mt Kenya voters or in his calculation worst case scenario remain with a third .
Unfortunately for Mps this came in the first term unlike last time in second term where they have to chose a side
Mps in general and especially in Mt Kenya have calculated that they need to eat as its still early and secondly have a survival chance if Gachagua is sent to political oblivion like Sonko and Waititu . They are still measuring the options and once they realise it to hostile you will see what is happening with Muranga Mps they remove themselves from the circus and you will when it becomes hotter some will be absent during the impeachment .
Ofcourse just like the Wamuchombas /Kangatas /Sakajas in last parliament once the next election in near they will troop to the party of mashinanis choice.

Now having said that Gachaguas impeachment is a big miscalculation . The ground was already boiling with anger due to economic issues now in Mt Kenya is got worse when Ruto betrayed them and brought in Raila , now coupled with impeachment for no reason at all they feel double betrayed . The memories of 2007 come back and it shows that Uhuru was right not to trust Ruto ( I dont believe in that ).
The ground will never believe another person who is not from Mt Kenya and will be more united and adamant to win 2027 like never before , Same mistake Raila did in 2007 when he mudsligned Kibaki and advocated for 41 vs 1 and kabila adui .
Ruto didnt learn from Jubilee 1 , where you maintain your winning formula and broaden your voters basket . Now GENZ happened and has decided to lose 2 birds in search of one additional .

Same thing Moi did in 2002, I think its a Rift Valley thing . Once power enterers their heads they think they can do anything . It took Raila 2 years to know you need GEMA to enter statehouse  , Ruto will be out before or by 2027 . If this goes through and I hope it does it kills the deputy President as dangling carrot . Every one will vie for Presidency.
As for Mps 60-70% of them will not make it back . Even with dierect nominations …..

[sema]

blah, blah, blah, blah, blah...

Just like no one could predict the protests of June 2024...2027 remains an open book and anyone counting on the tribal vote will be shocked including ruto.

[Fairandbalanced]

Stop jumped the gun, Nyeri Mpigs have started retreating, the ground is too hot. If they were to listen to the people, this motion should not have been brought, there are way more pressing issues in Kenya like Adani. On tribal presidency, I see Kambas, Kisii, and other smaller tribes making inroads in this new dispensation. Do not be surprised if the next president is Kambas or Kisii, as for Kalenjins, Ruto has really ruined it for them, we will never see another Kalenjin leadership in our lifetime. I feel sorry for Kale kids cause they have suffered just as much as other Kenyans, they should join the other GenZs to remove this government that is universally hated… https://x.com/itskipronoh/status/1841882223382863976?s=46&t=3-3-_ehcZbukDCK7hNe5LA

[RV Pundit]

Stop jumped the gun, Nyeri Mpigs have started retreating, the ground is too hot. If they were to listen to the people, this motion should not have been brought, there are way more pressing issues in Kenya like Adani. On tribal presidency, I see Kambas, Kisii, and other smaller tribes making inroads in this new dispensation. Do not be surprised if the next president is Kambas or Kisii, as for Kalenjins, Ruto has really ruined it for them, we will never see another Kalenjin leadership in our lifetime. I feel sorry for Kale kids cause they have suffered just as much as other Kenyans, they should join the other GenZs to remove this government that is universally hated… https://x.com/itskipronoh/status/1841882223382863976?s=46&t=3-3-_ehcZbukDCK7hNe5LA

gema yote plus kambas plus gusii ni 30% of Kenya. 70% is out there. You idiots are desperate.

[Fairandbalanced]

Kales have only 1.5m votes, Luhyas historically vote at best 50:50, Luos are notorious for low turnouts even for Raila, winning with this group is going to be a huge undertaking but I digress, I believe we are going to a new dispensation of tribe less Moraras of this world, how long it takes to get there is beyond me but we are very close. At this point, Kikuyus would vote for a rat if it goes against Ruto.

[Fairandbalanced]

Ruto ruined it for kales big time but I will wait until the AU elections

[RV Pundit]

Kales we know how to play politics.
Moi became VP for 10yrs
Moi lasted 25yrs as president
We were in oppostion 5yrs tu.
Cameback with ODM raila swaahaaaaaaaaa.
Uhuru our trojan horse fwaaaaaaaaha.
Uhuru tried ujinga - Ruto beat him butwwaaaaaaaa
Now we have Nairobi - 11 counties where we are governor or deputy govenor - and presidency MWAAAAAAAAha.
We will never let go of hii kitu
Ruto will continue unitl he get tired foofofoooo.

Hehehe - RiggyG wacha nayo - he is dead man walking - for trying to overthrow sitting president

And go behind Kindiki please.

or you will SUFFER.

Kalenjin ni DAWA Yenu...mumezoea Jaluo...lakini sisi dawa yenu

Ruto ruined it for kales big time but I will wait until the AU elections