I don't see the Trump ticket as a winner. JD Vance is a MAGA nutcase who supports universal abortion ban and heavy-handed deportations. His ex-Marine and poverty background appeal is rednecks who are already hardcore Rethugs. Besides the blaster what does Trump offer really? He lost the trade war against China, upended almost all US global obligations -- TPP, Iran deal, WHO, Paris Accord - and rioted upon defeat!
Kamala Harris has obvious minority stranglehold. Incumbency and Obama take away the fear of the unknown black or newbie. She is Hillary Clinton without the baggage. Independents will love her. She's likely to pick a rustbelt governor - Trump can forget Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Trump without the 2016 maverick appeal would have a hard time against anyone but senile Joe.