Why defaulting on debts could save Kenya, Jimi Wanjigi explains

[Nowayhaha]

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https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001473030/why-defaulting-on-debt-could-save-kenya-jimi-wanjigi

[Kadudu]

Best way forward and we start afresh. Ruto can always say it was Uhuru's regime, forgetting he was sitting there pretty on his side for 10 years.

[RV Pundit]

Ufala..defaulting is nuclear option

[lelewela]

We have gone so low as a country to listen to conman like Wanjigi about economics. Next generation iko shida, kweli.

[RV Kirgit]

It might be a good idea to default.

And rename the country while at it. Kenya is a dynasty name out of Kenyatta.

[RV Pundit]

It might be a good idea to default.

And rename the country while at it. Kenya is a dynasty name out of Kenyatta.

it's tragic to default...Kenya existed before conman kamau changed his name

[RV Pundit]

Even some fools in USA entertain it

A default on America's debt would be catastrophic for working families:

8 million jobs gone.
A recession triggered.
Retirement accounts devastated.
Social Security checks delayed.

It's beyond me why MAGA House Republicans would ever think this is an appropriate threat to make.

— President Biden (@POTUS) May 16, 2023

?s=19

[Nowayhaha]

Kenya economy is made up of foreign investment .Any default will lead to capital flight and sanctions . It will finish Kenya as foreign powers might manufacture a civil war or alginate Kenya Somali style.

Default option goes well whenever there is a revolution as incoming regimes disassociates itself from previous regimes policies .
Revolutions also a sponsored and the sponsoring nation then will need to come in a support financially the new regime.
People dont know but this was partly the reason in 2014 Putin decided to reintegrate Crimea back to Russia after Western nation sponsored  Euro Maidan Revolution as Ukraine had decided to default against their Russian debt which went beyond fall of USSR.

[gout]

It is making no sense that we won't default if there is no austerity. The budget shows no austerity is on the cards and the economy is contracting.

Will Kenyans slave for mzungu and Chinese? Go without salaries, hospitals ndio tulipe madeni??

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/economy/njuguna-ndung-u-s-race-to-collect-sh1-3trn-in-two-months--4235724

[hk]

The local debt is a bigger problem than foreign debt. Treasury is unable to raise debt at the offered yield rate and simultaneously kra isn't able to collect budgeted funds. Without austerity debt will be restructured(default)

The moody’s downgrade: Moody’s has attributed downgrade to Kenya’s liquidity challenge https://t.co/ro5bzQ7R7i via @NTVKenya

— IEA Kenya (@IEAKenya) May 16, 2023

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[sema]

Treasury is unable to raise debt at the offered yield rate and simultaneously kra isn't able to collect budgeted funds.

Why is this happening? And again, I keep bringing up Ndii because he is in charge of ruto's economic plan, but no one can figure out what he is saying.

[hk]

Treasury is unable to raise debt at the offered yield rate and simultaneously kra isn't able to collect budgeted funds.

Why is this happening? And again, I keep bringing up Ndii because he is in charge of ruto's economic plan, but no one can figure out what he is saying.

It doesn't matter what ndii is saying or doing, what matters is what the market thinks of his actions and policies. Moody downgraded kenya to junk status, that's what they think of the proposed budget in terms of addressing current debt crises.

[sema]

It doesn't matter what ndii is saying or doing, what matters is what the market thinks of his actions and policies. Moody downgraded kenya to junk status, that's what they think of the proposed budget in terms of addressing current debt crises.

So, what are their options at this point?

[gout]

The budget process begins in July 2022- so the handchieth institutional technocrats had their budgeted thefts which Ndii seems unable to reverse as hungry broke hasora politicians also have their hedges. 

Well saving grace is that budgets are just plans. Without revenues they are dead. But as seen in NYS, KEMSA - the speed at which money is thrown at corrupt deals as long as they in the budget you can tell if Ruto does not instil discipline in the financial management.

Seems he is resolute- so the donors and markets if genuine should reward his efforts. 

[Georgesoros]

Go ahead and default. The Kenya will be paying the highest interest rate for a generations, is it worth it??
Just go on diet for a couple years then we be back stronger. CUT SPENDING.

[Nowayhaha]

Government has some parastatals and departments which can fetch good money . This option has been on the table for a couple of years .
It would be a win win for Kenya . Get revenue from selling and secondly streamline services in the so called former parastatal .
 

[gout]

The markets are speaking favourably. There is a window of opportunity for another Eurobond.

https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/bd/markets/capital-markets/eurobond-yields-defy-moody-s-downgrade--4243422

Treasury is unable to raise debt at the offered yield rate and simultaneously kra isn't able to collect budgeted funds.

Why is this happening? And again, I keep bringing up Ndii because he is in charge of ruto's economic plan, but no one can figure out what he is saying.

It doesn't matter what ndii is saying or doing, what matters is what the market thinks of his actions and policies. Moody downgraded kenya to junk status, that's what they think of the proposed budget in terms of addressing current debt crises.

[hk]

The markets are speaking favourably. There is a window of opportunity for another Eurobond.

The yield has eased to 15.5% that's still junk status. Mind you the bond was listed at 5%.  The frontier issues market is closed unless the yields tumble to below 10% .

[RV Pundit]

I asked Uhuru to do this in 2018 - he kept borrowing. This what Kibaki did to ensure debt never mounted. Kimunya did excellent. I pleaded to Uhuru. Imagine if we sold Safaricom when a share was 40 - gov would have gotten clean 7-8B - and retired China loans if need be.

Now the equity and debt market are equally depressed - this is no longer an option.

Only option is to cut the budget.

Government has some parastatals and departments which can fetch good money . This option has been on the table for a couple of years .
It would be a win win for Kenya . Get revenue from selling and secondly streamline services in the so called former parastatal .
 

[sema]

I've been listening to both Jimmy Wanjigi and David Ndii.

Ndii seems to have become very quiet lately on twitter. The bravado is gone, but to summarize both their views here:

Wanjigi is saying there is no way out but default.

Ndii is saying that difficult choices will to be made, but hasn't mentioned default.  I find Ndii difficult to understand because he sounds like an economics professor that can't break down economic concepts in a way that a layman would understand.

Wanjigi is much better at breaking down his arguments and he keeps things simple and precise.  He breaks his arguments down using publicly available numbers he gets from the treasury and he keeps saying it's simple mathematics and that math isn't adding up.

I'm still trying to figure out what Ndii is saying.