BBI failed last time for the same reasons you have given. Handshake deceived Raila and by the time even Uhuru decided to bu the idea and protect his wealth it was too late. Ruto wanted to deceive him again using different tricks , so far he has refused .
BBI failed because Government was involved and wasnt keen in a referendum at begining
Secondly the miscalculated with the Courts.
Now about ODM , Raila is ODM and ODM is Raila.
On IEBC , If you have studied Railas journey you would know that he always want to be part an parcel of the Elections Body . He was the sole FORD member talking of constitution of ECK back in 1992 , he was instrumental in IPPG which then Moi gave in and they had a say in the representation of ECK by 2002. He tried the same Karua showed him the middle finger in 2007 .In 2013 as Prime Minister in Grand coalition he single handedly picked the members . In 2017 he fought tooth and nail to have IEBC reconstituted , In 2017 he had a hand in ensuring the 4 sleepers were part of IEBC . Raila will cause havoc or sell his soul to have a say in 2027 IEBC.
With Ruto on the dire need of rescuing the economy it will depend on how he handles him. I opine Ruto should use the courts and not force to cut Raila into shape . One thing Raila respects is the courts and international communities . He goes against the courts he becomes a pariah and the international community deciphers him .
Nowayhaha - Ngai!, Ati BBI??? Baba atarudia BBI na Reggae na Canaan na Court cases referendum, plus dealing with ODM possible rebellion and normal ODM nomination mess, and GOK is not bankrolling him this time around. Lol Somebody tell Baba that 60 months is not a long time away, and certainly not the time to try the same failed projects. Even within ODM, there will certainly be Raila fatigue sooner than later.
Njamba is right , Raila is planning for another BBI and constituency boundaries has to be done this period.
There will be lots of protests until he gets his wishes .
Ruto has handled him well so far. If he starts listening to the likes of Pundit he will be in a big hole.