They have almost defaulted like Zambia and Ethiopia; we are still long way to get there.
Similarities - we are all locked out of the eurobond or commercial debt market
Kenya gov can probably still borrow from external commercial banks - but interest will be a killer.
We also have IMF program existing and generally in good books with west now
Our domestic debt market is liquid.
Kshs is under pressure
Big difference is really we got a new gov that is aware of what need to be done.
1) We need to really cut down the budget - 300B is great because we had set to borrow 250b externally - that looks unlikely as the external debt market look volatile - so that takes of the pressure
2) We need to get dollars from bilateral creditors including Chinese.
3) KRA need to collect the 2.4 trillion - from 2.1 trillion. That is an extra 300B. Or about 15% up. We are 10% up in the first 5 months - so still achievable.
CBK should religiously guard it dollars - and not intervene.
Ghana is gone - have defaulted both in domestic and external market - and that takes decade plus to repair.
We still have 2023 - breather. In 2024 is when we have to pay 3 billion dollars for Eurobond in hard currency.
Ruto should watch macro-economic very seriously - and try see what import substitution can be done
In short we could also be gone if
How different is Ghana from the situation we are in right now?
Topic: Ghana defaults (Read 1281 times)