I have received a sizeable number of questions regarding the turn-out and the untallied votes, and, so, I opt to respond it here with a wider audience 😀
I also had similar questions, since IEBC seemed to be reading from different scripts 😝
Prior to going to my calculations, please take some few minutes and listen to this clip and pay keen attention to min 8:23 and then to min 24:42
Simply,
1. In Min 8:23, Chebukati mentions a turn-out of 65.4%, but 16 minutes later, he makes a correction of the turn-out and puts it as 64.6% and then gives the absolute turn-out of 14,164,561
2. Another important information he gives is that the figure is against the functional kits (around between mins 8 and 10), and manual Voters were excluded and as such, the turn-out would increase after including those who voted manually.
Now, digest the above and then we continue, and we start with the known to the unknown
A. There were a total of 238 Poling Stations which IEBC authorised to vote manually.
B. Of these, 84 were in Kibwezi West (Makueni County), and 154 were in Malava, Matungu, Mumias East and West in Kakamega County
C. Eldas Constituency in Wajir County voted on 10th August due to insecurity, a day after other counties. The Constituency has 72 Poling Stations
D. Digaage Primary School in Garsen, Tana River County voted on 10th August due to logistical challenges
E. From (A) to (D), then we know that 238 Poling Stations voted manually and another 73 voted on 10th August.
F. Thus, a total of 311 Poling Stations were excluded from the denominator as of COB of 9th August 2022.
I hope you have digested the above 🤣. Let then proceed
G. For Eldas Constituency and Digaage Poling Station, we know the registered voters, and they are 24,497 ie. 23,359 in Eldas and 1,138 for Digaage Primary School (1&2)
H. However, the registered voters for the 238 Poling Stations wasn't given, nor were the names made available. But we can estimate!
I. How do we estimate, it's very easy! Kibwezi has 206 Poling Stations with 91,554 registered voters and so the average per Poling Station is 444.4 (I will thus use 445), the the 4 Constituencies of Kakamega have 542 Poling Stations with 272,232 registered voters hence an average of 502.3 (I will use 503). Note this is an estimate, and hence the actuals could have a slight difference!!
K. Using points (B) and (I), then, the estimated total registered in the 238 Poling Stations was 115,262
L. Adding (G) and (K), then, the total votes excluded from the reported kits was 139,759.
M. This, thus means that the total potential voters who were to be identified through KIEMS Kit on 9th August was about 21,980,699 which now becomes my denominator
😝😝....take another deep breath, and let's continue
N. Using Point (A), Chebukati gave a turn-out of 14,164,561 which now translates to 64.441% (this is 0.159% less than the 64.6% that Chebukati gave. This difference is possible since as explained in Point (I), I used an estimate of registered voters since I didn't have the actuals 😊.
O. The final turn-out as per Form 34C was 14,326,641 (64.77%) which is 162,080 higher than the 14,164,561 described above; and this was as expected
P. The 162,080 could then be assumed to the the Manual Voters and those who voted in Eldas Constituency and Digaage Primary School
NOTE:
1. I have used the above clip as my source of information, and other Press Statements issued by IEBC on 9th and 10th August
2. Since as explained above there is a step I have used estimation, then there could be a slight variation with the actuals especially under Step
3. In conclusion, the said 140,028 missing in the final tally isn't occurring in my analysis.
4. It will be interesting to see how IEBC will explain their data, as the official custodian of voting data especially on 64.6% vs. 65.4%. Mine will just be to compare their work out and mine 🤣
#DataSpeaks
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