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Author Topic: Unga to reduce to 100shs - Azimio final vote bribery attempt  (Read 1234 times)

Offline RV Pundit

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Unga to reduce to 100shs - Azimio final vote bribery attempt
« on: July 18, 2022, 01:35:16 PM »
The subsidy will last four weeks until election date.
This will help them lose by 55 percent
Otherwise 60 percent lose is still very possible if they dont handle the cost of living esp in urban poor.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Unga to reduce to 100shs - Azimio final vote bribery attempt
« Reply #1 on: July 18, 2022, 01:37:18 PM »

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Unga to reduce to 100shs - Azimio final vote bribery attempt
« Reply #2 on: July 18, 2022, 05:15:27 PM »
ati 60% hubris itawamaliza. Unga is legit issue not bribery.. Uhuru should be very hard at work trying to bring down prices - which is real PORK job. Even Biden is running to Saudis to try contain gas prices before midterms.

People know Raila is not responsible for inflation. Despite Ruto best effort.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Unga to reduce to 100shs - Azimio final vote bribery attempt
« Reply #3 on: July 18, 2022, 05:17:26 PM »
No US president has been relected when inflation is that high.
No sane kenyan will vote for Azimio with Jubilee chair Uhuru as it chairman when Unga is 200shs.
That is why they have lowered it.

Now they need to do it for rest of the items...so they can lose by respectable 55 versus 44 - that is TRIBAL MATHS BASELINE.

Otherwise 60% is very possible - if kenyans are very angry and hungry - that is KENYA ARE ANGRY HUNGRY BASELINE - I have shared the data somewhere.

Actually the last few weeks - all twitter and facebook polls - Ruto is doing 60%.

It used to be neck to neck in June - April

But now Raila can barely get to 30%.

And some are very very large sample...80,000 votes....and Raila is not hitting 30% while Ruto is doing 60%.

I can only speculate that Manifesto nailed it and Unga is killing Raila.

Quote from: Robina on July 18, 2022, 05:15:27 PM
ati 60% hubris itawamaliza. Unga is legit issue not bribery.. Uhuru should be very hard at work trying to bring down prices - which is real PORK job. Even Biden is running to Saudis to try contain gas prices before midterms.

People know Raila is not responsible for inflation. Despite Ruto best effort.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Unga to reduce to 100shs - Azimio final vote bribery attempt
« Reply #4 on: July 18, 2022, 05:42:51 PM »
Kenyans are hungry and angry yes. They are just not angry at Raila who you conflate with Uhuru. Wishful thnking. Uhuru job is only helping Raila in Mt Kenya - which is going okay.

You see polls are there - Raila 4% edge over Ruto is the consensus of Tifa, Mizani, Radio Africa, etc. You claim they are wrong or technically incompetent. We ignore Infotrak after you accused them of being from Bondo entire company  :) But all these folks cannot err on Raila side.

Hio MOAS 55-60% even Charles Hornsby doesn't agree.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Unga to reduce to 100shs - Azimio final vote bribery attempt
« Reply #5 on: July 18, 2022, 05:55:01 PM »
IRS did two polls of 20,000 respondent. I suggest you read theirs. Then just factor turnout differential. Ruto is hammering Raila PROPER.
https://irs.co.ke/

RankAfrica also did big one of 5000 - > Ruto hammering Raila big tme.

Quote from: Robina on July 18, 2022, 05:42:51 PM
Kenyans are hungry and angry yes. They are just not angry at Raila who you conflate with Uhuru. Wishful thnking. Uhuru job is only helping Raila in Mt Kenya - which is going okay.

You see polls are there - Raila 4% edge over Ruto is the consensus of Tifa, Mizani, Radio Africa, etc. You claim they are wrong or technically incompetent. We ignore Infotrak after you accused them of being from Bondo entire company  :) But all these folks cannot err on Raila side.

Hio MOAS 55-60% even Charles Hornsby doesn't agree.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Unga to reduce to 100shs - Azimio final vote bribery attempt
« Reply #6 on: July 18, 2022, 06:05:41 PM »
He will get there. He started from 50-50; then went 51; 49; now he is 52 versus 48; this week he could be 53;47; next week 54; 46; then last week he will be 55:44 otherwise he will LOSE.
Quote from: Robina on July 18, 2022, 05:42:51 PM
Hio MOAS 55-60% even Charles Hornsby doesn't agree.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Unga to reduce to 100shs - Azimio final vote bribery attempt
« Reply #7 on: July 18, 2022, 06:27:35 PM »
IRS i saw their Ruto 51% poll but have never heard of them before. I wonder what happened to Ipsos.

Basically this time we are short of credible polls. Even RV Pundit has never been more conflicted.

Quote from: RV Pundit on July 18, 2022, 05:55:01 PM
IRS did two polls of 20,000 respondent. I suggest you read theirs. Then just factor turnout differential. Ruto is hammering Raila PROPER.
https://irs.co.ke/

RankAfrica also did big one of 5000 - > Ruto hammering Raila big tme.
♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Unga to reduce to 100shs - Azimio final vote bribery attempt
« Reply #8 on: July 18, 2022, 06:31:38 PM »
On the contrary we have more polls than before. IPSOS =TIFA because Tom Wolf. Then InfoTrack is Raila crap. Mizani is new kid in the block and I like their aggressive polling of lower seats. I wish we get more Mizani in the future.

I think IPSOS I have heard will do one poll.

IRS are good - they look legit - and they do very heavy samples. I dont understand why these other ones do small samples when telephone interviews are very cheap.

Quote from: Robina on July 18, 2022, 06:27:35 PM
IRS i saw their Ruto 51% poll but have never heard of them before. I wonder what happened to Ipsos.

Basically this time we are short of credible polls. Even RV Pundit has never been more conflicted.

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Unga to reduce to 100shs - Azimio final vote bribery attempt
« Reply #9 on: July 18, 2022, 06:43:03 PM »
Small problem - Treasury better pay up. I am not sure how they will pay for it. Maybe from Contingency Funds?

Offline gout

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Re: Unga to reduce to 100shs - Azimio final vote bribery attempt
« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2022, 12:23:23 PM »
They are resorting to threatening retailers with a million fine. It may be counterproductive.

Will people refuse to buy at 230 and wait for a week?? What will the retailers do with old stock if it goes past a week?

These uncertainties need a thorough think through.

The 2017 one having started in May benefitted from normal grains imports supply chain. Right now there are no grains globally.
Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one ~ Thomas Paine

Offline RV Pundit

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Re: Unga to reduce to 100shs - Azimio final vote bribery attempt
« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2022, 12:32:07 PM »
Nobody will care about threats this late in the regime of Uhuru.
First the legality of this scheme without parliamentary and budget office approval means millers could lose their money when Ruto wins.
So unless gov is literally going with money to buy Unga...most millers will pretend they dont have the maize.
This will make the bad situation worse...because they will stop production...relieve workers for election....repair machinery.
The law of supply and demand....many people will hoard Unga any cheap Unga and sell it on backstreet.

Uhuru as usual will his ulevi and lack of planning will not pull this off.
It will be a huge mess.

Quote from: gout on July 19, 2022, 12:23:23 PM
They are resorting to threatening retailers with a million fine. It may be counterproductive.

Will people refuse to buy at 230 and wait for a week?? What will the retailers do with old stock if it goes past a week?

These uncertainties need a thorough think through.

The 2017 one having started in May benefitted from normal grains imports supply chain. Right now there are no grains globally.

Offline Nefertiti

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Re: Unga to reduce to 100shs - Azimio final vote bribery attempt
« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2022, 07:04:56 PM »
they have the cash - just need to dish it out to millers asap. Drop to 100 will deflate Ruto noises

Kenya bags Sh28 billion loan from IMF to cushion Ukraine war effect on economy
https://nation.africa/kenya/business/kenya-bags-sh28-billion-loan-from-imf-to-cushion-ukraine-war-effect-on-economy-3884412

♫♫ They say all good boys go to heaven... but bad boys bring heaven to you ~ song by Julia Michaels
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