Mizani polls:Raila 7.9MN votes/47% Ruto7.4MN votes /46%

[Nowayhaha]

Another one from Tom Wolf in April

https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2022/04/01/the-political-polling-season-is-upon-us-what-you-need-to-know-part-i/

[Tactician]

Twas just some few weeks ago when you opined that its impossible for rao to get 20% in mt kenya. Truth will sink in slowly. Two more months to go.

Tactician - there has been almost no change in Ruto numbers since 2018.
They have remain solid...at 50 percent of the decided voters plus.

He has solid momentum called the Hustler Nation.

Raila is just doing the usual scrambling together of a coalition - trying to make it jelly - before realizing it's a little too late.

Meanwhile Ruto is just busy crossing the Ts and Is.
Making sure he protect his votes
And working on turnout game.

[Githunguri]

I think the best we can do is all UDA AND AZIMIO people not to post opinion polls on this forum because we cannot have a situation where you agree with a opinion poll which is favourable to you and rubbish one that is against you.That is the greatest height of impunity and kalenjin nationalism in this forum which cannot be tolerated.

[RV Pundit]

20% in Mt kenya ni ngumu sana. Most of you (nearly all of you) dont know how to read these numbers;  check MOASS which will be out soon; for proper numbers; 

Quick assignment - Focus on Mt kenya - look for 2013 and 2017 - find out how much Uhuru and Raila were polling strictly in Mt kenya.

Let discuss that. If opinion poll tell you Ruto is polling 10 percent in Luo Nyanza; and you know he will get 1 percent; or that Raila will get 15 percent of Kericho or Nandi or Bomet; you know he will get 2 percent;

Why would you believe it when they tell you Raila will get 25 percent of Mt kenya - their margin of error is almost 10 percent - meaning Raila will get 15 or well 35 percent.

I can almost tell you that apart from Meru and Kiambu - Nakuru (for obvious reasons of 20 percent non-kikuyu/kalenjin) - Raila will NOT get 20 percent in any other Mt kenya county. For Raila to improve from 1-2 percent to 15 percent sio Mchezo. It takes time for people to trust you enough to change their political stand...ask Ruto who has been tirelessly campaigning for 30ys..what sometimes a thankless job it may be..until you crack it open...like Bungoma now.

Twas just some few weeks ago when you opined that its impossible for rao to get 20% in mt kenya. Truth will sink in slowly. Two more months to go.

[RV Pundit]

Tactician please for heaven sake tafuta kazi ingine. These numbers these numbers; I am the PROFESSORI of them. I always try to get 100% right - in every county - it takes a lot of my thinking - modeling - understanding local issues - history - knowing kenya siasa inside out.
https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=5258.msg39567#msg39567

Nobody can come this close to predict kenya election - with such high level precision.

I have been getting better every election or referendum - and the lesson I have learnt - DO NOT LISTEN to anybody. The ones I get wrong I am normaly swayed by popular opinion - instead of my rigorous methods.

[RV Pundit]

I got about 5 last time with unacceptable ?15% difference;
I got another 10 - with difference of 5-10%.
This time my intention is to reduce the error rate to zero ( - to half the error rate.

I predicted the re-run with precision of 98 percent for Uhuru - and predicted Raila would beat Turkana boy despite not running - it was a bull-eye

In 2010 referendum I got 33 versus 67 - it came down to 31 versus 68; all opinion polls had ruto at 15-25 percent - most at 20 percent to 80 percent - come election day = ohoo we are suprised Ruto did extremely well.

2013 - I predicted clean win of Jubilee of 51-52 - with no run -off as everyone waited for a run-off.

My final final MOASS is cooking - and after final register is out of  19th June - I will take few days to finalize and it will be out.

[Tactician]

Keep modelling 2022 using 2017. Mt Kenya will pull a shocker

Tactician please for heaven sake tafuta kazi ingine. These numbers these numbers; I am the PROFESSORI of them. I always try to get 100% right - in every county - it takes a lot of my thinking - modeling - understanding local issues - history - knowing kenya siasa inside out.
https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=5258.msg39567#msg39567

Nobody can come this close to predict kenya election - with such high level precision.

I have been getting better every election or referendum - and the lesson I have learnt - DO NOT LISTEN to anybody. The ones I get wrong I am normaly swayed by popular opinion - instead of my rigorous methods.

[RV Pundit]

How did I model 2017? Or 2013? What did I use? I watch many indicators - and Mt kenya is least likely to cause shocker - Ukambani ndio inasumbua.

Keep modelling 2022 using 2017. Mt Kenya will pull a shocker

[Nefertiti]

says a Kalenjin...

The numbers they give Raila in Central . While even Jubilee and Azimio candidates fear puting his photo in their posters

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-10-why-mt-kenya-leaders-wont-use-raila-photo-on-posters-ngunjiri/

[Nefertiti]

Uhuru should be wary of Kalenjin coup in KDF as angry Ruto lash out.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Uhuru should be wary of Kalenjin coup in KDF as angry Ruto lash out.

45% of KDF and 55% of Kenya police are Kalenjins. Uhuru and his project have nowhere to turn to! You rig, Kenya is kaput; you play fair, Ruto wins hands down! A rock and hard place it is!

[Nowayhaha]

Delusioned. I can bet you will be one of the many will retire come Aug 09.

says a Kalenjin...

The numbers they give Raila in Central . While even Jubilee and Azimio candidates fear puting his photo in their posters

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-10-why-mt-kenya-leaders-wont-use-raila-photo-on-posters-ngunjiri/

[RV Pundit]

That is the dilemma they are facing; they attempt to rig; Kalenjin will definitely unleash their demons and if mismanaged kenya descend into a civil war; they dont rig; Ruto beat them; that is if they can even manage to rig; because Ruto knows all their moves; and will protect UDA vote; and even out-rig Raila who is likely to be so disorganized he wont have any parraelle systems or will remember to deploy agents.

Like they say power is never given - it's taken. Ruto is taking it by force. They were expecting Ruto will talk nicely and negotiate for it - but Ruto is taking it either way.
 

45% of KDF and 55% of Kenya police are Kalenjins. Uhuru and his project have nowhere to turn to! You rig, Kenya is kaput; you play fair, Ruto wins hands down! A rock and hard place it is!

[RV Pundit]

Naona Jubilee are starting to say the police have gone rogue. That is expected - security forces - will go rogue on a dying regime. Next is for prov administration to tell Kibicho to go drying.

Jubilee SG Kioni accuses police of favouring DP Ruto's camp https://nation.africa

Uhuru should be wary of Kalenjin coup in KDF as angry Ruto lash out.