Mizani polls:Raila 7.9MN votes/47% Ruto7.4MN votes /46%

[Githunguri]

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Raila emerges to be the most popular presidential candidate commanding the lead with 47.5%. William Ruto comes second place with 46.6%.
Based on Mizani's previous National Polls, this indicates an  upward trajectory for Raila and downward trend for Ruto.#MizaniPresidentialPolls pic.twitter.com/HZN5YtaZaT

— Mizani Africa (@Mizaniafrica) June 10, 2022

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[RV Pundit]

Generally better than infocrap;
I doubt few figures like Kakamega- .
The opinion polls as always have huge margin of error compare to MOASS;
The plus turnout will give+- 2% difference .
Ruto's UDA zone are more reliable turnout wise.

[KenyanPlato]

Generally better than infocrap;
I doubt few figures like Kakamega- .
The opinion polls as always have huge margin of error compare to MOASS;
The plus turnout will give+- 2% difference .
Ruto's UDA zone are more reliable turnout wise.

Kimsop you are losing Bigly

[RV Pundit]

There are people we cannot lose to - Raila is one of them. That is my own grandfather methali.

Kimsop you are losing Bigly

[KenyanPlato]

[KenyanPlato]

There are people we cannot lose to - Raila is one of them. That is my own grandfather methali.

Kimsop you are losing Bigly

Raila never lost. He is defacto co president now

[RV Pundit]

Who want president in diapers;

Raila never lost. He is defacto co president now

[Nowayhaha]

The numbers they give Raila in Central . While even Jubilee and Azimio candidates fear puting his photo in their posters

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-10-why-mt-kenya-leaders-wont-use-raila-photo-on-posters-ngunjiri/

[RV Pundit]

Even in Kalenjin or Luo land - they will give wild figures; when voting day come; people vote 99 percent one way; no opinion poll in kenya has been able to capture that; Their margin of error is 10 percent; That is why they cannot predict the winner or lose; Way too inaccurate.
For example if you check Siaya - they give Ruto 10 percent - come election day - Ruto will get 1 percent
Elgeyo Markwet that will deliver 95 percent - they give Ruto even 60 percent.

You have to take them with plentiful salt.

The numbers they give Raila in Central . While even Jubilee and Azimio candidates fear puting his photo in their posters

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-10-why-mt-kenya-leaders-wont-use-raila-photo-on-posters-ngunjiri/

[Tactician]

From a slam dank election win 3 months ago to relying on margins of error. That's what is called momentum. And still two months to go.

Even in Kalenjin or Luo land - they will give wild figures; when voting day come; people vote 99 percent one way; no opinion poll in kenya has been able to capture that; Their margin of error is 10 percent; That is why they cannot predict the winner or lose; Way too inaccurate.
For example if you check Siaya - they give Ruto 10 percent - come election day - Ruto will get 1 percent
Elgeyo Markwet that will deliver 95 percent - they give Ruto even 60 percent.

You have to take them with plentiful salt.

The numbers they give Raila in Central . While even Jubilee and Azimio candidates fear puting his photo in their posters

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-10-why-mt-kenya-leaders-wont-use-raila-photo-on-posters-ngunjiri/

[Nowayhaha]

No difference from Opinion polls of 2007,2013 and 2017 ....Still Raila lost the elections.

From a slam dank election win 3 months ago to relying on margins of error. That's what is called momentum. And still two months to go.

Even in Kalenjin or Luo land - they will give wild figures; when voting day come; people vote 99 percent one way; no opinion poll in kenya has been able to capture that; Their margin of error is 10 percent; That is why they cannot predict the winner or lose; Way too inaccurate.
For example if you check Siaya - they give Ruto 10 percent - come election day - Ruto will get 1 percent
Elgeyo Markwet that will deliver 95 percent - they give Ruto even 60 percent.

You have to take them with plentiful salt.

The numbers they give Raila in Central . While even Jubilee and Azimio candidates fear puting his photo in their posters

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-10-why-mt-kenya-leaders-wont-use-raila-photo-on-posters-ngunjiri/

[RV Pundit]

We've been through this for 20yrs now!
We have had the same arguments for donkey years!
Momentos! Perfecto!Valid dreams!
This election is repeat of 2017 almost.
Expect the same 45 versus 55 percent.
There is really nothing different.
Raila is with Kalonzo - and is trying to gain Mt Kenya
Ruto is has retain Mt kenya - and is trying to gain NASA strongholds mostly in Western/Coast to cancel any gain Raila will make.
Rest of the country - will vote as usual 50-50.

Ruto will win this easy. He start with 14 counties in RV; adds 8 counties in Mt kenya; and he only need 2 more to win;
Bungoma is in.
Now entire coast, NEP, name it; he wont miss those two.

Tribal re-alignment with a bit of kachumbari - very easy to predict.

From a slam dank election win 3 months ago to relying on margins of error. That's what is called momentum. And still two months to go.

[Tactician]

One difference from those 3 elections. Rao lost momentum in all those 3 as we approached elections. This time its the reverse. He's gaining as we approach. Long campaigns a ala rao 97, 13, 17 and wsr 22 are detrimental to the campaigner. Loses the fuzz as competitor gathers steam.

And fyi, Tom wolf's opinion polls in all 3 were proved right.

No difference from Opinion polls of 2007,2013 and 2017 ....Still Raila lost the elections.

From a slam dank election win 3 months ago to relying on margins of error. That's what is called momentum. And still two months to go.

Even in Kalenjin or Luo land - they will give wild figures; when voting day come; people vote 99 percent one way; no opinion poll in kenya has been able to capture that; Their margin of error is 10 percent; That is why they cannot predict the winner or lose; Way too inaccurate.
For example if you check Siaya - they give Ruto 10 percent - come election day - Ruto will get 1 percent
Elgeyo Markwet that will deliver 95 percent - they give Ruto even 60 percent.

You have to take them with plentiful salt.

The numbers they give Raila in Central . While even Jubilee and Azimio candidates fear puting his photo in their posters

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2022-06-10-why-mt-kenya-leaders-wont-use-raila-photo-on-posters-ngunjiri/

[RV Pundit]

Pray what is momentum.
UhuRuto in 2013 and 2017 nailed their ticket and their numbers almost one year to go.
In fact in 2017 - they didnt even add anything - they just consumated Jubilee of 2013 - in 2016 and waited for disorganized Raila to arrive at the start line...as always unprepared.

Raila as always was scrambling a coalition the last minute.

Is that last minute scrambling what you call a momentum.

Momentum is NARC wave of 2002 and Hustler Nation Wave. ODM wave of 2005-2007 can pass for momentum.

Kalonzo Kilimbi dance is not momentum - check the figures of Ukambani.

One difference from those 3 elections. Rao lost momentum in all those 3 as we approached elections. This time its the reverse. He's gaining as we approach. Long campaigns a ala rao 97, 13, 17 and wsr 22 are detrimental to the campaigner. Loses the fuzz as competitor gathers steam.

And fyi, Tom wolf's opinion polls in all 3 were proved right.

[Tactician]

Big difference. No mt kenya candidate. Expect turnout to drop in mt kenya. Guess to whose advantage/disadvantage

We've been through this for 20yrs now!
We have had the same arguments for donkey years!
Momentos! Perfecto!Valid dreams!
This election is repeat of 2017 almost.
Expect the same 45 versus 55 percent.
There is really nothing different.
Raila is with Kalonzo - and is trying to gain Mt Kenya
Ruto is has retain Mt kenya - and is trying to gain NASA strongholds mostly in Western/Coast to cancel any gain Raila will make.
Rest of the country - will vote as usual 50-50.

Ruto will win this easy. He start with 14 counties in RV; adds 8 counties in Mt kenya; and he only need 2 more to win;
Bungoma is in.
Now entire coast, NEP, name it; he wont miss those two.

Tribal re-alignment with a bit of kachumbari - very easy to predict.

From a slam dank election win 3 months ago to relying on margins of error. That's what is called momentum. And still two months to go.

[Nowayhaha]

Internet never forgets

https://www.africanews.com/2017/07/24/conflicting-polls-place-kenya-s-main-presidential-candidates-in-the-lead/

[RV Pundit]

Yes turnout will drop in GEMA but Kalenjin will increase turnout - but nothing changes - because Raila has dropped points; he need 10 percent if you believe 2017 was not rigged;

Kalenjin turnout was low of 78-80s - they are going back to 90 percent almost. Of course Kalenjin are about half of GEMA - so Ruto will lose 1 percent there - but I believe he competitive in more counties than Uhuru ever was.

Where does Raila manufacture a 10 percent deficit when he is leaking all over the country. This election is repeat of 2017.

Big difference. No mt kenya candidate. Expect turnout to drop in mt kenya. Guess to whose advantage/disadvantage

[RV Pundit]

Tactician - there has been almost no change in Ruto numbers since 2018.
They have remain solid...at 50 percent of the decided voters plus.

He has solid momentum called the Hustler Nation.

Raila is just doing the usual scrambling together of a coalition - trying to make it jelly - before realizing it's a little too late.

Meanwhile Ruto is just busy crossing the Ts and Is.
Making sure he protect his votes
And working on turnout game.

[Nowayhaha]

https://www.cfr.org/blog/polls-tighten-run-kenyas-presidential-election

[Nowayhaha]

Tom Wolf disputes opiniin polls and this is as latest as last month.

https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2022/05/24/why-opinion-polls-may-not-always-predict-election-outcomes-in-kenya/