Post poll violence likely to happen.

[Githunguri]

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Chronology of events.

In the Coastal region,UDA is claiming that Uhuru stole their port and transferred it to Nairobi and Naivasha which are mainly GEMA regions. He is also telling the mijikenda and Taita that he will restore their stolen land back to them.I think he is somewhere over 40% vote now at the coast and upward.He is selling himself as the saviour who will return their stolen land.I think next he will do a deal with the Muslims at coast and tell them that he will fight against extra judicial killing.That puts him 60% at the coast.i don't understand whether Raila is noticing the ground there is almost gone.Incase Ruto was to loose and claim rigging,He has a serious network there which would paralyse activities and demonstrate while squatters take over their land from land barons.Lamu is crazy.No need to go to details.I think everyone understands what's been going on for 10 years.

In Laikipia,Narok,Kajiado...He is against large land holdings like Kedong,Rose farm,ole Pajeta,solio..These large holdings are against Samburu and Maasai grazing fields and with climati charge and drought which cause lack of grazing fields.It means Maasai and Samburu are voting Ruto 60% + to get their land back.Any attempt to steal his vote makes those three counties ungovernable.

In Kalenjin based counties Bomet Nakuru Transzoia EM West Pokot Nandi etc that's already a powder keg.Its a no brained.Lots of land issues between locals and non locals and alot of weaponry arrows and cattle rustling going on there.

In Kiambu,From Tigoni in Limuru to Kakuzi in Muranga you have land owned by few families.As long as Kabogo Kuria and matangi can mobilize people using land issues particularly squatters against kenyatta.I think they would protest.Ruto supporters in Nairobi are radicals.The person who wouldn't mobilize People against land I think it's kabogo He owns 200 acres in Tatu city/Oakland's and lots of land pale kasarini,Runda estate  which would make him go slow due to even his businesses.

In Nairobi it would be battle in the slums.As long as GEMA are 80% UDA and Luo luhya Kamba are 70% Azimio.The slums pale mathare mukuru kawangware would become ungovernable.The people outnumber the police so only political settlement can resolve the issue.

The less we talk about North eastern,The better.

BOTTOM LINE is,With the above issues,As long as UDA continue to claim that the elections will be rigged,that voters have been transferred,The media is biased,This message will be spread in every corner like bushfire and it's setting up of a crisis.A big one I say.

[RV Pundit]

When I talked of such scenarios I was accused of many many crimes - including imagining a civil war.
Anyone messing up with next election is going to start a civil war because kenya police are incapable of stopping nationwide revolt
KDF will come in - and if they split
Kenya is gone.
Kenya economy is limping....from covid and ukraine crisis
It cannot afford any more shocks

So Uhuru better sober up, ensure there is very credible elections, tell his ministers to control their mouth.
An idiot like Gicheru is giving fodder to such a war by publicly claiming they will rig.

So Azimio and desperado in gov - weigh your words - those openly claiming we will rig impunity is being noted down - let IEBC do it's job.

Kalenjn nation are going to fight if they feel Ruto has been undone unjustly and they will dig in for quite sometime.
Kenya will become broke - and civil war will emerge.
And we will join the failed states..

[RV Pundit]

If such a scenario plays out - the trigger will come from Kalenjin nation.
Most people dont quite understand how kalenjin nation work because of it's people nature.
You dont see it coming.
Kalenjin are experts in masking their emotions.

Uhuru would the cause of such civil war - because his gov has done everything possible to undermine the credibility of the next election
Thankfully Ruto is winning by huge margin.

Otherwise Matiangi is talking about sijiu police will respond to any violence - he clearly underrate Kalenjin nation.
He should ask Gen Ali how that went in 2007.

Kalenjin nation will not countenance any rigging and will fight an injustice with dogged determination - and last time kenya was luckly - this time it limping.

[Githunguri]

I think Uhuru already realized the effects of the handshake and has gone chini ya maji..He has refused to even campaign for Raila because he knows what's at stake.I think handshake was Uhuru biggest political mistake.Even if Raila was to win today,The challenge is that the land issue is already on the table and if Ruto supporters protested He will loose tracts of his land.

Secondly...the moment Ruto wins a vote in a  certain region let's say coast..the government functionaries there be it chief DO county commissioner will go slow on Uhuru because he will be going home and they will be left exposed.Most sane people in GOK will either claim their hands are tied..as for me I would RESIGN and take the next flight.

Mucheru thinks he can please Raila.He doesn't know politics has NO MORALS.The words he utter and his decisions in the next two months can mess him up badly.He doesn't have a political base or financial muscle to navigate if he were taken to ICC.

I think the biggest looser in this  game is Uhuru.He has lost his political support.His businesses are on the line.He is exposed.I think we still have time.Let him make peace with Ruto and retire.

[RV Pundit]

He was retiring; Like Kibaki; he didnt have to have a dog in this fight; he has received bad advice;now instead of retiring peacefully; he is having lose bowel movements; for either Raila or Ruto win; Kenyattas are in for tough 5yrs.

His best move now - let IEBC run things - ask his ministers to pull out of politics - and stop verbal diarhoea that they will rig - those are VERY DANGEROUS WORDS.

Ruto and his kalenjin nation are going to put all cards on the table in the coming months - and he should be ready - for this not usual afternoon battle of stones - this will be a messy war. Kikuyu nation are also likely to start a civil war btw poor and rich - or finish mau mau vs homeguard - and it will become messy and bloody.

From now on - people will see a different Ruto - the one who is not afraid of anything - the one kalenjin call the brave one- and kenyatta had better prepare - for Uhuru has poked Ruto and kalenjin nation eyes for 5yrs - hoping to get an angry response to use it to win back GEMA - but has gotten nothing - now he is about to get it.

Ruto in next two months - will hit Kenyattas and Mois directly - he will likely play rough politics in coast and matusa on land - Gachagua will play rough politics of Mau Mau - homeguard- where is our land - and Raila will get attacked more viciously with usual propaganda.

Politics proper is just starting. You will be writting to ICC everyday.

I think Uhuru already realized the effects of the handshake and has gone chini ya maji..He has refused to even campaign for Raila because he knows what's at stake.I think handshake was Uhuru biggest political mistake.Even if Raila was to win today,The challenge is that the land issue is already on the table and if Ruto supporters protested He will loose tracts of his land.

Secondly...the moment Ruto wins a vote in a  certain region let's say coast..the government functionaries there be it chief DO county commissioner will go slow on Uhuru because he will be going home and they will be left exposed.Most sane people in GOK will either claim their hands are tied..as for me I would RESIGN and take the next flight.

Mucheru thinks he can please Raila.He doesn't know politics has NO MORALS.The words he utter and his decisions in the next two months can mess him up badly.He doesn't have a political base or financial muscle to navigate if he were taken to ICC.

I think the biggest looser in this  game is Uhuru.He has lost his political support.His businesses are on the line.He is exposed.I think we still have time.Let him make peace with Ruto and retire.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Hey guys, don't scare me with eerie scenarios. We only have one choice; Ruto to win decisively and usual minor protests from Odinga opposition team. Uhuru knows you don't steal votes from Kalenjins and survive. I think he will make sure the elections are fair and just. Coast is 70% Ruto, Western is 65% and Kamatusa is all in because of land, water, and pastoralism issues. Gema is 70% in, so there is no way Raila have a path. Ruto is genius having taken bulk of NASA votes while maintaining nearly the whole of RVGEMA. Hustler nation is tribeless.... united in pursuit of happiness, thriving economy, land maters, and the fall of dynasties with a thud!

[RV Pundit]

Yes it's improbable Ruto can lose this one. Unless election was to be totally messed up and supreme court - who has CJ who seem unhinged - was to be part of it. That is scenario that can lead to civil war. Otherwise I dont think Uhuru has the energy and resources to engage in next two months. Politics is just starting. He has made himself a subject - and he will be hit in coast for land and port business - in central for land - in Kamatusa - for land and related. Raila should except the usual vicious propaganda in GEMA against him. Politics is just I believe starting....by 9th - it will be akin to war....so people can troop to vote.

Raila main handicap is Uhuru - he cannot be in his element - because Uhuru is the project manager - so hapo he will concentrate on attacking Ruto - if he tries to link Ruto to Moi regime - Gideon Moi will be unhappy - if he tries to go for usual in coast - Kenyattas will be there.

So Raila likely to go for Ruto characterization and try to do kabila mbili propaganda.

Hey guys, don't scare me with eerie scenarios. We only have one choice; Ruto to win decisively and usual minor protests from Odinga opposition team. Uhuru knows you don't steal votes from Kalenjins and survive. I think he will make sure the elections are fair and just. Coast is 70% Ruto, Western is 65% and Kamatusa is all in because of land, water, and pastoralism issues. Gema is 70% in, so there is no way Raila have a path. Ruto is genius having taken bulk of NASA votes while maintaining nearly the whole of RVGEMA. Hustler nation is tribeless.... united in pursuit of happiness, thriving economy, land maters, and the fall of dynasties with a thud!

[RV Pundit]

Yes it's improbable Ruto can lose this one. Unless election was to be totally messed up and supreme court - who has CJ who seem unhinged - was to be part of it. That is scenario that can lead to civil war. Otherwise I dont think Uhuru has the energy and resources to engage in next two months. Politics is just starting. He has made himself a subject - and he will be hit in coast for land and port business - in central for land - in Kamatusa - for land and related. Raila should except the usual vicious propaganda in GEMA against him. Politics is just I believe starting....by 9th - it will be akin to war....so people can troop to vote.

Raila main handicap is Uhuru - he cannot be in his element - because Uhuru is the project manager - so hapo he will concentrate on attacking Ruto - if he tries to link Ruto to Moi regime - Gideon Moi will be unhappy - if he tries to go for usual in coast - Kenyattas will be there.

So Raila likely to go for Ruto characterization (Corruption/PEV) and try to do kabila mbili propaganda. Ruto will go for State capture, Land capture, Dynasty v Poor , and Old versus Young - in GEMA Raila usual menu. That I believe is the real politics we shall seen.

Of course Ruto can prove me wrong by continuing with clean politics.

[Githunguri]

He was retiring; Like Kibaki; he didnt have to have a dog in this fight; he has received bad advice;now instead of retiring peacefully; he is having lose bowel movements; for either Raila or Ruto win; Kenyattas are in for tough 5yrs.

His best move now - let IEBC run things - ask his ministers to pull out of politics - and stop verbal diarhoea that they will rig - those are VERY DANGEROUS WORDS.

Ruto and his kalenjin nation are going to put all cards on the table in the coming months - and he should be ready - for this not usual afternoon battle of stones - this will be a messy war. Kikuyu nation are also likely to start a civil war btw poor and rich - or finish mau mau vs homeguard - and it will become messy and bloody.

From now on - people will see a different Ruto - the one who is not afraid of anything - the one kalenjin call the brave one- and kenyatta had better prepare - for Uhuru has poked Ruto and kalenjin nation eyes for 5yrs - hoping to get an angry response to use it to win back GEMA - but has gotten nothing - now he is about to get it.

Ruto in next two months - will hit Kenyattas and Mois directly - he will likely play rough politics in coast and matusa on land - Gachagua will play rough politics of Mau Mau - homeguard- where is our land - and Raila will get attacked more viciously with usual propaganda.

Politics proper is just starting. You will be writting to ICC everyday.

I think Uhuru already realized the effects of the handshake and has gone chini ya maji..He has refused to even campaign for Raila because he knows what's at stake.I think handshake was Uhuru biggest political mistake.Even if Raila was to win today,The challenge is that the land issue is already on the table and if Ruto supporters protested He will loose tracts of his land.

Secondly...the moment Ruto wins a vote in a  certain region let's say coast..the government functionaries there be it chief DO county commissioner will go slow on Uhuru because he will be going home and they will be left exposed.Most sane people in GOK will either claim their hands are tied..as for me I would RESIGN and take the next flight.

Mucheru thinks he can please Raila.He doesn't know politics has NO MORALS.The words he utter and his decisions in the next two months can mess him up badly.He doesn't have a political base or financial muscle to navigate if he were taken to ICC.

I think the biggest looser in this  game is Uhuru.He has lost his political support.His businesses are on the line.He is exposed.I think we still have time.Let him make peace with Ruto and retire.

Gachagua is LETHAL RUTHLESS.He may even decide to sponsor squatters the so called mau mau children to invade large tracts of land  and tell them its their birth right.that would be revolutionary in GEMA and would seal kenyatta fate in GEMA.I think in such an event Raila would get 5% vote in Kiambu.

BUT the question is,Will Uhuru Kenyatta sit down pretty,clap and hand over power to people who want to forcefully take over his LAND and BANKRUPT his businesses in the next 20 years like Moi did to the likes of Matiba?

I was drinking in some club..Murathe was behind me and said that if ruto becomes president.He would go to exile.For some people in GOV..It's do or die.

We have reached a POINT of no return in Kenyan politics because its just two months from elections.Its quite DANGEROUS looking at the political rhetoric.

[RV Pundit]

Gachagua and Moses Kuria are very lethal in GEMA. They will definitely unleash. Gachagua will work on Kenyatta. Kuria will work on Raila.
At some point - Uhuru will be smoked out and will be forced to join the campaign - I dont see him sitting pretty.
Power unfortunately is taken. It's never given.
It's upon Uhuru to realize at some point that he has lost and he can negotiate a safe passage.
Moi in 2002 dug in - despite NSIS telling him kibaki was winning - he totally refused to listen.
It took US summon to white house - and MOU with Kibaki - for Moi to climb down and start dismantling his forces.
Kenyatta needs to negotiate MOU before it's too late.
He is a lameduck - nobody will listen to him - not even NASA where Raila is busy replacing his ministers while he is alive.
Now what is Oparanya status - minister of finance - or Yatani
Matiagi or kalonzo
So the lameduck phase is almost complete - in gov circles - Kibicho will find himself powerless.
Because folks are busy aligning to either Ruto or Raila.

As for Murathe and Uhuru - Ruto and Gachagua are vicious - but if they raise the white flag - disappear completely from politics - they will leave them alone.
Murathe know they threw Gachagua to prison, tried to bankrupt him, blocked his money - his crime - supporting Ruto.

And Gachagua is very lethal - and will go for them - he will want to crush them so he becomes the only muthamaki.

So it almost given Gachagua will want to avenge - by similarly bankrupting them.

Gachagua is LETHAL RUTHLESS.He may even decide to sponsor squatters the so called mau mau children to invade large tracts of land  and tell them its their birth right.that would be revolutionary in GEMA and would seal kenyatta fate in GEMA.I think in such an event Raila would get 5% vote in Kiambu.

BUT the question is,Will Uhuru Kenyatta sit down pretty,clap and hand over power to people who want to forcefully take over his LAND and BANKRUPT his businesses in the next 20 years like Moi did to the likes of Matiba?

I was drinking in some club..Murathe was behind me and said that if ruto becomes president.He would go to exile.For some people in GOV..It's do or die.

We have reached a POINT of no return in Kenyan politics because its just two months from elections.Its quite DANGEROUS looking at the political rhetoric.

[Githunguri]

Kikuyus don't like Kuria.You've started overthinking.Kuria needs switch his mind..from Raila to Land issues in Kiambu which would earn him votes.

[RV Pundit]

Kuria politics has always been Raila. He is very effective when attacking Raila and ODM. That I believe will be his role.
And it depend on what he wants;
If he want governorship yes; though I think Wamatangi has that one;
He is playing double chance; has a deal with Ruto; for a minister or two;

He can play both - attack Raila and attack Uhuru -  yes land in Kiambu is hot potato - because few guys basically took all white highlands - leaving everyone on the edges.

If Ruto promises that land distribution to include Kiambu - and Muranga - it will have open a powderkeg.

Kikuyus don't like Kuria.You've started overthinking.Kuria needs switch his mind..from Raila to Land issues in Kiambu which would earn him votes.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Gachagua and Moses Kuria are very lethal in GEMA. They will definitely unleash. Gachagua will work on Kenyatta. Kuria will work on Raila.
At some point - Uhuru will be smoked out and will be forced to join the campaign - I dont see him sitting pretty.
Power unfortunately is taken. It's never given.
It's upon Uhuru to realize at some point that he has lost and he can negotiate a safe passage.
Moi in 2002 dug in - despite NSIS telling him kibaki was winning - he totally refused to listen.
It took US summon to white house - and MOU with Kibaki - for Moi to climb down and start dismantling his forces.
Kenyatta needs to negotiate MOU before it's too late.
He is a lameduck - nobody will listen to him - not even NASA where Raila is busy replacing his ministers while he is alive.
Now what is Oparanya status - minister of finance - or Yatani
Matiagi or kalonzo
So the lameduck phase is almost complete - in gov circles - Kibicho will find himself powerless.
Because folks are busy aligning to either Ruto or Raila.

As for Murathe and Uhuru - Ruto and Gachagua are vicious - but if they raise the white flag - disappear completely from politics - they will leave them alone.
Murathe know they threw Gachagua to prison, tried to bankrupt him, blocked his money - his crime - supporting Ruto.

And Gachagua is very lethal - and will go for them - he will want to crush them so he becomes the only muthamaki.

So it almost given Gachagua will want to avenge - by similarly bankrupting them.

Gachagua is LETHAL RUTHLESS.He may even decide to sponsor squatters the so called mau mau children to invade large tracts of land  and tell them its their birth right.that would be revolutionary in GEMA and would seal kenyatta fate in GEMA.I think in such an event Raila would get 5% vote in Kiambu.

BUT the question is,Will Uhuru Kenyatta sit down pretty,clap and hand over power to people who want to forcefully take over his LAND and BANKRUPT his businesses in the next 20 years like Moi did to the likes of Matiba?

I was drinking in some club..Murathe was behind me and said that if ruto becomes president.He would go to exile.For some people in GOV..It's do or die.

We have reached a POINT of no return in Kenyan politics because its just two months from elections.Its quite DANGEROUS looking at the political rhetoric.

Uhuru tried to bankrupt Ruto for 3 straight years. Ruto now is aiming at shaving 50 billion in 90 days from them Kenyatta empire. Gachagua will probably take to 75 billion!

[RV Pundit]

Only the naive like Kadudu thinks politics is soft game - it's cuthroat competition for power and money - it about finishing your opponent completely or they will finish you.

Those that survive like Ruto, Raila and Sonko - do so because they are very sly - and hard to nail down - otherwise if someone get you proper - it will be miserable life of being broke and dealing with court cases - if not being dead.

That is why most of these people invest in high level personal security - will never walk anywhere without bodyguards - armoured cars - and even bullet proof jackets sometimes.

Here is the day Gachagua unloaded on Murathe

Is It In Your Diary / CaLendar To / For Deputising In Anything(Besides, NaturaLLy, What Many Have Insinuated About Here) In The New Dispensation?! Then We Can Perhaps Organise For A DueL / Debate To Determine Who's Better In Such Matters?! 🤔 pic.twitter.com/kkk9ncqIul

— Timothy Njora (@NjoraTimothy) June 4, 2022

Uhuru tried to bankrupt Ruto for 3 straight years. Ruto now is aiming at shaving 50 billion in 90 days from them Kenyatta empire. Gachagua will probably take to 75 billion!

[Githunguri]

Only the naive like Kadudu thinks politics is soft game - it's cuthroat competition for power and money - it about finishing your opponent completely or they will finish you.

Those that survive like Ruto, Raila and Sonko - do so because they are very sly - and hard to nail down - otherwise if someone get you proper - it will be miserable life of being broke and dealing with court cases - if not being dead.

That is why most of these people invest in high level personal security - will never walk anywhere without bodyguards - armoured cars - and even bullet proof jackets sometimes.

Here is the day Gachagua unloaded on Murathe

Is It In Your Diary / CaLendar To / For Deputising In Anything(Besides, NaturaLLy, What Many Have Insinuated About Here) In The New Dispensation?! Then We Can Perhaps Organise For A DueL / Debate To Determine Who's Better In Such Matters?! 🤔 pic.twitter.com/kkk9ncqIul

— Timothy Njora (@NjoraTimothy) June 4, 2022

Uhuru tried to bankrupt Ruto for 3 straight years. Ruto now is aiming at shaving 50 billion in 90 days from them Kenyatta empire. Gachagua will probably take to 75 billion!

That is exactly why Uhuru will and must destroy Ruto politically.

[RV Pundit]

You're 5yrs late. He has tried it all. He has failed. Ruto now is going to go macho to macho with him in two months. If it money; Ruto will pour; if it playing rough; ruto will play rough;  There is almost nothing he can do to Ruto except maybe try to assisinate him. Maybe try to rig - but that is also becoming very very hard because Ruto is all eyes - all ears.

Uhuru has failed not because he didnt try - but because Ruto is very sly cat - who is always step ahead of Uhuru.

Politically there is nothing he can do - he has played the last card - by buying Kalonzo - maybe he come back for Mutua and Kingi - by giving them a billion Shs each - otherwise he is afraid to go to the ground - where Ruto runs it.

That is exactly why Uhuru will and must destroy Ruto politically.

[sema]

Why couldn't uhuru with all his intelligence networks finish ruto who is knows is totally corrupt?

Also, I hear Murathe owns a boutique hotel in Spain. I think he started shifting his money out of Kenya years ago.

[RV Pundit]

How to get someone who is very smart like Ruto with sophisticated money laundering network that he learnt in 90s under Moi? Whatever Ruto owns - he own legally - and is normally over-leveraged. Weston has KCB loan of 1B plus. Every of his business or farms - they have huge bank loans - mostly from likes of KCB or those that have gov shares. He simply calls KCB and ask for 2B loan - knowing his property is 1B - simply order CEO kwani hiyo ni pesa yako ama ni sirikali . You go for his property - KCB loses 2B - he already banked 1B elsewhere - so essentially Weston or his farms are owned by Banks. The rest is washed through sophisticated network - if not handled exclusively as cash.

Why couldn't uhuru with all his intelligence networks finish ruto who is knows is totally corrupt?

Also, I hear Murathe owns a boutique hotel in Spain. I think he started shifting his money out of Kenya years ago.

[Githunguri]

Ruto told tenants in Nairobi that he will negotiate with landlords to ensure they own properties after 15 years of renting....

BREAKDOWN.

Majority tenants in Nairobi are Luo Kisii and Luhya  who are over 1MN.Most of these people are Jua Kali who are employed in Mjengo,Boda,changaa,hawkers,thieves,sewer and exhaustes,Maids,watchmen...majority of their landlords are Kikuyu because kikuyu land had spread all the way to Ngong.The moment you make such kind of statements,you mobilize these people to vote for you because they won't pay RENT.thats how it's interpreted by the ignorant voters who are majority.such statements can lead to dangerous class warfare against landlords and then mutate to ethnic warfare.

You can imagine how such a political statement is interpreted in a place like Mombasa where let's say we have Arab landlords or uasin ngishu.

Very DANGEROUS.

Politics is becoming more savage as we head to the elections.

[audacityofhope]

Mdu wa Githuguri, mbona you are dwelling on this issue across threads as if your life depends on it? Politicians especially of the Ruto type promise some different at every rally they hold. Are you a landlord in the skyscraper?? And you are still stuck analyzing this one and Ruto has probably already moved onto another promise! You are giving Pundit a run for his money in over-posting/multiple threads, and me here on the other hand is thinking maybe your handle has been hijacked