Bungoma and Tranzoia is shoe-in.
Tranzoia-Jubilee did almost 40 percent in 2013 & 45 in 2017- Kalenjin (30)+GEMA(10) core is 40 percent- so Weta bukusu are bringing in 30 percent.
Bungoma - Kalenjin+Kikuyu comfortably bring in 15 percent - Ruto hard work on another 15 percent upto 2017 - and didnt stop - so another 15 percent - so Ruto core - 45 percent - Weta just need to bring 25 percent.
Kakamega and Vihiga possible - opinion polls are way off there.
The same way they were off in 2017 - where Jubilee improved from almost zero to 25 percent - even 30 percent in Bungoma.
Naturally maDVD+Weta should improve that 20-30 percent plus Ruto hard work btw 2017-2022 - that would be worth anything 35 percent.
So these guys are being asked to just bring 35 percent of new votes.Surely they can do this.
In 2013 - madvd got 30 percent of Kakamega - and 50 percent of home county Vihiga.
Ruto in 2017 - improved in kakamega from 2.6 percent in 2013 - to almost 20-25 percent;
And Ruto didnt stop investing
So he was already 35 percent without maDVD/Weta
And they bring their 30-35 percent/
And they get 70 percent.
Surely if maDVD cannot add 30 percent and Weta 30 percent - they should just GO HOME.Ruto would be wasting power.
Based on grassroot mobilization still going on in Bungoma, Kakamega, Transnzoia, and Vihiga, they will likely hit 70% mark. Busia will be 60/40 in favor of Azimio because of too many luos there!