You know things are bad when Itumbi,Ahmednassir start dismissing polls

[Pajero]

• Tweet

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">VOODOO OPINION POLLS!<a href="https://twitter.com/NationAfrica?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@NationAfrica</a> told us Angela Ambitho of <a href="https://twitter.com/Infotrakltd?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Infotrakltd</a>, sat in Strategy meetings with Raila Odinga&#39;s Cord.<br><br>Now, the same Nation wants us to believe a poll conducted by Infotrak is believable.<br><br>In the words of a Governor, we are not as foolish as we look. <a href="https://t.co/34iCMXYNwl">pic.twitter.com/34iCMXYNwl</a></p>&mdash; Dennis Itumbi, HSC (@OleItumbi) <a href="

VOODOO OPINION POLLS!@NationAfrica told us Angela Ambitho of @Infotrakltd, sat in Strategy meetings with Raila Odinga's Cord.

Now, the same Nation wants us to believe a poll conducted by Infotrak is believable.

In the words of a Governor, we are not as foolish as we look. pic.twitter.com/34iCMXYNwl

— -Dennis Itumbi, CBS (@OleItumbi) May 12, 2022

?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 12, 2022</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

[RV Pundit]

That is why I do MOASS: Opinion polls give you raw data; Some are bogus like Ambitho; Many never get the real things; for example; no opinion poll will show you Raila or Ruto winning 98 percent in their strongholds - yet this is very possible.

So take opinion polls but with some salt.

Then also model turnout based on the reality that some areas just dont turn up to vote at the same rate.

Coast for example turn up 20% less than Luo, Kalenjin and GEMA.

This is what has been killing Raila for sometime. That turnout give Ruto a huge edge. This time round we may not see GEMA turning out...but Kalenjin will definitely go up compared to 2017.

[Pajero]

Kisiangani too has joined the fray,ni kubaya boss,hii imeenda

[RV Pundit]

What has changed 2013 & 2017 - we had the same crap - if opinion polls were accurate - I wont do MOASS.
First resolve Deputy PORK - then we talk.
As of now - Ruto has huge edge - minimum 5 percent - just because of turnout.
Max 10 percent if Mt kenya turn up.

So model turnout, watch out for few gains KK has made, party primaries/nomination fallout and then running mate fallout.

Kisiangani too has joined the fray,ni kubaya boss,hii imeenda

[Pajero]

2017 we had no elections,read supreme court ruling.

[gout]

Anybody can tell NSIS 40 billion is working for whose interests.

[Pajero]

Yea,it worked pretty well for some people in 2013 and 2017,so why not work now again, after all it's our money.