Who wins Mobmbasa Governor?

[Githunguri]

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Hassan omar/UDA?
Mike sonko/WIPER?
Abdulshit Nassir/ODM?

This Abdulswamad guy looks like a weak type...whats kamba luhya luo kikuyu registered voter population in Mombasa what is chunk of sonko support base...can UDA pitia Kati Kati?.

[Githunguri]

Mijilkenda are on which side?who controls them.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Mijilkenda are on which side?who controls them.

MijiKenda are UDA to the tune of 90%

[Githunguri]

Mijilkenda are on which side?who controls them.

MijiKenda are UDA to the tune of 90%

Details.

[RV Pundit]

Mijikenda will decide.

Mombasa has very similar tribal arithmetic to Nairobi - except the kikuyus of Mombasa are the Mijikenda.

Mijikenda 30%
Kambas 17%
Luhyas 16%
Luos 15%

The rest are others...

Raila's ODM control Mombasa because Luo+Luhya are 30 percent - and are in alliance to support ODM.
I dont know if that alliance will break like it's broken in western kenya and now unravelling in Nairobi.

Mijikenda are not united - they are 9 subtribes - without unity save for Ngala son/father/karisa time - and have donated their leadership to swahilis and arabs.
Main mijikenda are Giriama of Kilifi - and Digo of Kwale (Sonko mother is a digo - father a kwale kamba)
Joho had appointed Deputy Governor from Mijikenda - but they overlooked him for governorship
So that could lead to Mijikenda not playing ball.

Here comes Sonko....Sonko has some Kamba and Mijikenda roots....and has coastal roots.

So he is real threat if he gets majority of kambas and Mijikenda...he would be 47% before he anything.

And if people forgive the disaster of Nairobi - and blame it entirely on Uhuru harrasing him.

Sonko also offers non-Arabs/Swahili with money enough to campaign

Sonko will spread money - and so this seat is toss up. Sonko has not started campaigns yet - so hard to judge him.

But ODM should be worried - their only assured seat is in danger.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Mijikenda will decide.

Mombasa has very similar tribal arithmetic to Nairobi - except the kikuyus of Mombasa are the Mijikenda.

Mijikenda 30%
Kambas 17%
Luhyas 16%
Luos 15%

The rest are others...

Raila's ODM control Mombasa because Luo+Luhya are 30 percent - and are in alliance to support ODM.
I dont know if that alliance will break like it's broken in western kenya and now unravelling in Nairobi.

Mijikenda are not united - they are 9 subtribes - without unity save for Ngala son/father/karisa time - and have donated their leadership to swahilis and arabs.
Main mijikenda are Giriama of Kilifi - and Digo of Kwale (Sonko mother is a digo - father a kwale kamba)
Joho had appointed Deputy Governor from Mijikenda - but they overlooked him for governorship
So that could lead to Mijikenda not playing ball.

Here comes Sonko....Sonko has some Kamba and Mijikenda roots....and has coastal roots.

So he is real threat if he gets majority of kambas and Mijikenda...he would be 47% before he anything.

And if people forgive the disaster of Nairobi - and blame it entirely on Uhuru harrasing him.

Sonko also offers non-Arabs/Swahili with money enough to campaign

Sonko will spread money - and so this seat is toss up. Sonko has not started campaigns yet - so hard to judge him.

But ODM should be worried - their only assured seat is in danger.

I see you angle, but I think with Sonko in, ODM candidate just lost 15%. If native costs people in ODM smell the defeat,bogey are more likely to find solace in UDA candidate. Sonko can only take it from ODM and not UDA. Mijikenda elders and opinion shapers in line with Ruto's village combing has almost united. I think kina mvurya, jijo pevu, Dado, and Aisha Jumwa, and other coastal leaders have really tried unify Miji Kenda groups. UDA might pitia katikati now that Sonko is in the mix

[RV Pundit]

Ruto should have dropped that dude long time ago - and prompted Somali Jicho Pevu.
Sarai has charisma of a dead wood.
Opinion polls have consistently kept him at 5 percent.
He is totally completely hopeless.

I see you angle, but I think with Sonko in, ODM candidate just lost 15%. If native costs people in ODM smell the defeat,bogey are more likely to find solace in UDA candidate. Sonko can only take it from ODM and not UDA. Mijikenda elders and opinion shapers in line with Ruto's village combing has almost united. I think kina mvurya, jijo pevu, Dado, and Aisha Jumwa, and other coastal leaders have really tried unify Miji Kenda groups. UDA might pitia katikati now that Sonko is in the mix

[Githunguri]

Mombasa governor-sonko.

[Nowayhaha]

Its a toss not like 2017 where Luo,Kamba and Mijikenda were united.
Depends how they play the politics. In 2013 Joho won with 132K against Shahbal 95K. Joho and Shahbal were in the same team and the politics of Arab vs Bantu Swahili played out. Shahbal got Kambasa and Joho got Luos ,Swahilis and Mijikenda.
Nasir candidature will bring out this rivarly again. And Sonko being Mbara might get the GEMA vote which in 2017 was around 100K.
Hassan Omar should let Nassir snd Sonko even out . Safeguard The UDA votes campaign on a platform a vote for him is a vote for Ruto otherwise just like it happened in Nyali in 2013 GEMA might vote for Sonko as they voted for Awiti Bolo in Nyali in 2013.
Why Giriamas are not aggresive in Mombasa no one knows. They have substantial number of votes.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto dropped the ball in Mombasa. Hassan Sarai is hopeless. But Ruto will do well compared to Uhuru...maybe 40 percent.

Its a toss not like 2017 where Luo,Kamba and Mijikenda were united.
Depends how they play the politics. In 2013 Joho won with 132K against Shahbal 95K. Joho and Shahbal were in the same team and the politics of Arab vs Bantu Swahili played out. Shahbal got Kambasa and Joho got Luos ,Swahilis and Mijikenda.
Nasir candidature will bring out this rivarly again. And Sonko being Mbara might get the GEMA vote which in 2017 was around 100K.
Hassan Omar should let Nassir snd Sonko even out . Safeguard The UDA votes campaign on a platform a vote for him is a vote for Ruto otherwise just like it happened in Nyali in 2013 GEMA might vote for Sonko as they voted for Awiti Bolo in Nyali in 2013.
Why Giriamas are not aggresive in Mombasa no one knows. They have substantial number of votes.