Uhuru to pick Raila DPORK

[RV Pundit]

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The rest are PRs. That narrows the battle to Mt Kenya and Gideon Moi. Kalonzo has no chance.

https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/how-raila-will-choose-azimio-running-mate-3785122

[RV Pundit]

No Raila No Kalonzo
https://fb.watch/crIvrPn6Y-/

[Githunguri]

There is another thread on this topic
unataka tufanye nini?Go  find something to do..everytime uhuru raila ruto kalonzo..its too boring now.
Yesterday I saw you online almost 11:30 yesternight..today morning uko hapa,its Sunday afternoon you are still here regurgitating the same story.

Get a life.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

No Kalonzo, No Raila will soon lead to No Raila no peace when Ojinga is defeated. Based on a massive number of Kamba comments I see a situation where 500, 000 extra Kikuyu votes go to Azimio and 800,000 extra Kamba votes go to Kenya Kwanza. Raila's best chance of hitting 45% aka losing is Kalonzo. A Gema candidate will take him under 43% worst losing!

[RV Pundit]

Kalonzo should cross over to Ruto and take anything on offer because at least it guaranteed and he will be treated with much respect.Uhuru doesn't care about winning for it's sake...he won't have ditched Ruto..he wants a proxy who will protect his interest..so don't be surprised if he pull even Gideon moi or some nondescript Kikuyu poodle.For now I see him picking peter Kenneth or Gideon...Martha is too mercurial to be trusted.Kenneth n Gideon understand what mega looting is and will good conduit for Kenyatta.For now PK is likely favourite.If not Lee The moi bastard.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Kalonzo should cross over to Ruto and take anything on offer because at least it guaranteed and he will be treated with much respect.Uhuru doesn't care about winning for it's sake...he won't have ditched Ruto..he wants a proxy who will protect his interest..so don't be surprised if he pull even Gideon moi or some nondescript Kikuyu poodle.For now I see him picking peter Kenneth or Gideon...Martha is too mercurial to be trusted.Kenneth n Gideon understand what mega looting is and will good conduit for Kenyatta.For now PK is likely favourite.If not Lee The moi bastard.

I think Gideon Moi is out. Lee Moi, Martha, Peter K, and Munya maybe!

[RV Pundit]

Munya is out.Yes Gideon would be if uhuru wants to kill jakom.Martha is too unpredictable..hii ni kama lee or mureithi kibaki nephew or pk

[Nefertiti]

PK or Karua.

I see you are still desperate about Gideon.. akin to Ruto picking Obado. At least you gave up Muhoho.

[RV Pundit]

It appears Raila want Karua.
Uhuru definitely wishes it was Gideon or another Kenyatta - but will take PK - or Lee or Mureithi.
Kalonzo wants Kalonzo.

The way I see Uhuru will decide - he has Raila by his balls.

When it come to Gideon and PK - I dont see any difference - maybe I am desperate but surely HOW DO YOU HOPE PK WILL EXCITE GEMA NATION - Karua has about the same chance - because frankly they've gotten wrong on two elections - first betraying GEMA nation in 2013 - before trying to comeback - and getting punished - now again joining AZIMIO - that most GEMA dont like

Gideon Moi at least can get Tugen votes
Now DPORK fallout from Kamba nation will be epic - Ruto should prepare to receive a million plus free votes
At least maDVD and Luhya nation expectation were managed long time ago - they expect not to get DPORK.

Ruto will likely pick Kikuyu(Ndidi Nyoro or Gachagua) unless Raila pick Kalonzo - then he will go for Kindike.

Mt Kenya East and Ukambani are about evently matched (3 counties versus 3)- and it will avoid Kikuyu-Kalenjin propaganda that Raila is going to unleash if he picks Kalonzo - and most Kikuyus would see the need to repay support of Meru+Embus.

PK or Karua.

I see you are still desperate about Gideon.. akin to Ruto picking Obado. At least you gave up Muhoho.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Don't give up on Kimani, the unopposed Kikuyu MP

[RV Pundit]

Your friend has no chance. He is a kikuyu who comes from Kiambu which just had presidency - having had it before. The OPTICS are terrible.

Ruto biggest headache now - is Kalenjin-Kikuyu pingpong - he would be at 70 percent of the vote - because most kenyans can clearly see he is more qualified than Raila - but some feel - it's time for another tribe - this what stopping him sweeping Luhya or Gusii or Coast or Ukambani - I estimate about half there will vote Raila just because they are tired of Kalenjin-Kikuyu

Don't give up on Kimani, the unopposed Kikuyu MP

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Your friend has no chance. He is a kikuyu who comes from Kiambu. The OPTICS are terrible.

Don't give up on Kimani, the unopposed Kikuyu MP

Kikuyu is kikuyu, wether in Murang'a or Nyeri. Uhuru won 99%, so as Kibaki yet they came from different areas and backgrounds!

[RV Pundit]

Only if Kikuyus really really wanted it. But you have Uhuru and his crew trying to split the vote. And you have possibly low turnout as he wont be PORK.

So I dont see how Ruto will pick Kiambu kikuyu....Non-GEMA votes are critical for Ruto....because he aint getting 100% support with 90% turnout in GEMA...maybe 75-80% going by opinion polls with 15% drop in turnout...and you dont want to incite the non-gema voters by making it look ridicolous.

Ndidi Nyoro is from Muranga - who feel it's their time too.
Next would be Kindiki - who come from Meru - and can deal with Meru issues.

Finally Nyeri man is for most Kikuyu an equal to RUto -  ndidi or ichungwa or kindiki will not tell Ruto anything.

So if GEMA want someone who can protect their interest - Gachagua is their best choice - and that is why I think he is doing well in opinion polls for running mate.

Kikuyu is kikuyu, wether in Murang'a or Nyeri. Uhuru won 99%, so as Kibaki yet they came from different areas and backgrounds!

[Nefertiti]

Yeah looks like Karua. She is good fighter - can spit venom seriously. She is just poor strategist. I believe PK softness messed his odds. Meru numbers mess Munya.

I don't know how you still manage to entertain ideas like Uhuru playing Raila.. to impose Gideon. Giddy will be brief Interior CS to deal with warriors. Reduce cries of tunaonewa.

Kalonzo & Mutuas are intra-Kamba war.. no space for Ruto or even Raila there. Provided they remain fully on board. What stop Kamba MPs from eating Ruto or Muthama cash like you claim in Gema & Luhya?

It appears Raila want Karua.
Uhuru definitely wishes it was Gideon or another Kenyatta - but will take PK - or Lee or Mureithi.
Kalonzo wants Kalonzo.

The way I see Uhuru will decide - he has Raila by his balls.

When it come to Gideon and PK - I dont see any difference - maybe I am desperate but surely HOW DO YOU HOPE PK WILL EXCITE GEMA NATION - Karua has about the same chance - because frankly they've gotten wrong on two elections - first betraying GEMA nation in 2013 - before trying to comeback - and getting punished - now again joining AZIMIO - that most GEMA dont like

Gideon Moi at least can get Tugen votes
Now DPORK fallout from Kamba nation will be epic - Ruto should prepare to receive a million plus free votes
At least maDVD and Luhya nation expectation were managed long time ago - they expect not to get DPORK.

Ruto will likely pick Kikuyu(Ndidi Nyoro or Gachagua) unless Raila pick Kalonzo - then he will go for Kindike.

Mt Kenya East and Ukambani are about evently matched (3 counties versus 3)- and it will avoid Kikuyu-Kalenjin propaganda that Raila is going to unleash if he picks Kalonzo - and most Kikuyus would see the need to repay support of Meru+Embus.

[RV Pundit]

Martha only excite old folks; GEMA nation is now excited by likes of Ndidi Nyoros - young hustlers from poor background - fighting contemporary issues.

Martha and PK - miscalculation of 2013 - means they start with huge trust deficit - who can trust the judgement of someone who got 43,000 votes nationwide? That explain why both were still beaten in 2017 despite scaling down to run for governorship. It's hard to WIN BACK TRUST OF KENYA voters...but to get it twice wrong...hapo you're done. To many in GEMA - they dont even remember the last time Martha was anything...it hazy as Kibaki running gov.

If I was advising Raila - I'd stick with Kalonzo- and go hard on KABILA MBILI propaganda.

Anyway as for Ukambani - utashangaa - things are happening below the ground (PAY ATTENTION TO OPINION POLLS/SOCIAL MEDIA/UDA PARTY SUPPPORT) - Ruto is doing 40-60 with Kalonzo in Azimio. If he doesnt get Azimio - hapa Ruto goes 80 percent of Ukambani.

Yeah looks like Karua. She is good fighter - can spit venom seriously. She is just poor strategist. I believe PK softness messed his odds. Meru numbers mess Munya.

I don't know how you still manage to entertain ideas like Uhuru playing Raila.. to impose Gideon. Giddy will be brief Interior CS to deal with warriors. Reduce cries of tunaonewa.

Kalonzo & Mutuas are intra-Kamba war.. no space for Ruto or even Raila there. Provided they remain fully on board. What stop Kamba MPs from eating Ruto or Muthama cash like you claim in Gema & Luhya?

[Nowayhaha]

You are right , If Ruto wants to solidly get GEMA votes he needs to pick DP feom Kiambu. 
Muranga , Nyeri ,Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru Tharaka Nithi and behind Ruto 90 % . Rutos problem is in Kiambu and Nyandarua (Influenced by Kiambu ) .If he can get someone brave who can fight Uhuru the better. Uhuru wont be able to do a 2002 where he got a substantial number of votew against Kibaki.

Your friend has no chance. He is a kikuyu who comes from Kiambu. The OPTICS are terrible.

Don't give up on Kimani, the unopposed Kikuyu MP

Kikuyu is kikuyu, wether in Murang'a or Nyeri. Uhuru won 99%, so as Kibaki yet they came from different areas and backgrounds!

[Njuri Ncheke]

I think Ruto has now the upper hand, having firmly told everyone else DP is central or upper eastern
https://www.tuko.co.ke/politics/451678-kenyan-newspapers-april-19-william-ruto-assembles-kenya-kwanza-lineup-ahead-august-polls/
he has managed to outmanoeuvre gatheca who had appeared to have the last card on this issue. Gatheca fault has been keeping many azimio candidates guessing and now this is his waterloo.
Ruto is a genius he takes it effortless
How does Ruto do this? Its simple he didn't keep his team guessing,so Merus wouldn't be angry at him for picking a Kikuyu or vice versa they will be content on the opposite gatheca will attract more hate for making Munya a pawn and then wasting him.

[RV Pundit]

Yes it comes with character.
Ruto has never been the guy who hides his cards.
He is confident on his game...and doesnt like being wishy washy.
He long made decision on DPORK...it has to be Mt Kenya.
MaDVD was told upfront.
In opposite camp - Raila is pure con - and Uhuru is mini con - they have been lying to 30 people promising each DPORK and BBI positions.
They lied to Kalonzo that BBI will pass.
BBI didnt pass. Kalonzo now wants DPORK or nothing.
You can bet they lied to PK, Munya, Martha - now they dont even have plan B.
All Ruto folks have plan B - most of them apart from Kithire Kindiki - have already gotten UDA certificate to run for MP seats.

In Ruto corner - only Gachagua can hurt Ruto if not picked - the rest cannot.

I think Ruto has now the upper hand, having firmly told everyone else DP is central or upper eastern
https://www.tuko.co.ke/politics/451678-kenyan-newspapers-april-19-william-ruto-assembles-kenya-kwanza-lineup-ahead-august-polls/
he has managed to outmanoeuvre gatheca who had appeared to have the last card on this issue. Gatheca fault has been keeping many azimio candidates guessing and now this is his waterloo.
Ruto is a genius he takes it effortless
How does Ruto do this? Its simple he didn't keep his team guessing,so Merus wouldn't be angry at him for picking a Kikuyu or vice versa they will be content on the opposite gatheca will attract more hate for making Munya a pawn and then wasting him.

[RV Pundit]

What is adverse impact on other GEMA and Non-GEMA of picking yet another Kikuyu from Kiambu to deputize Ruto.
Ruto may gain maybe another 200K votes in larger Kiambu - but will definitely lose the propaganda war nationwide.
It will be very bad optics...Ruto is already contending with propaganda that PORK seem reserved to Kalenjin and Kikuyu.

For me Ruto best choice will have to come from Muranga or Mt Kenya East.

Muranga feel this their moment - if you understand that Kikuyu is three sub-tribe nation.

I think Kiambu numbers are inflated because of Nairobi - most of people living in Ruiru and Thika Town - accounting for half Kiambu votes - are not from Kiambu - they are mostly GEMA from Muranga, Nyeri, Merus, and non GEMAS.

So dont get carried away - Ruiru, Juja, Thika, Kikuyu, Kabete, Kiambaa, Kiambu Town - are not rural Kiambu (Githuguris, Gatundus, Limuru, Lari)

Those 3 (Thika,Juja,Ruiru) - account for nearly half - Kiambu votes - and they are not native kiambuans - but admixture of GEMA & Non-GEMA.  They are going to flow with GEMA thinking. Uhuru will be competitive in the hinterlands of Njamaa - Githuguri-Gatundu-Lari -Limuru-Kikuyu - where native Kiambuans will listen to Kenyatta vibe.

Roughly speaking - about 0.5-6M are native Kiambus - about 0.3-0.4M are other GEMAs - about 0.2M (Non-gema - kambas,Luo& Luhya)

022 KIAMBU 111 GATUNDU SOUTH 75,858 140
022 KIAMBU 112 GATUNDU NORTH 67,598 126
022 KIAMBU 113 JUJA 114,761 184
022 KIAMBU 114 THIKA TOWN 147,323 230
022 KIAMBU 115 RUIRU 159,337 240
022 KIAMBU 116 GITHUNGURI 99,384 174
022 KIAMBU 117 KIAMBU 80,730 132
022 KIAMBU 118 KIAMBAA 95,413 154
022 KIAMBU 119 KABETE 85,446 139
022 KIAMBU 120 KIKUYU 91,157 149
022 KIAMBU 121 LIMURU 87,258 153
022 KIAMBU 122 LARI 76,655 142

You are right , If Ruto wants to solidly get GEMA votes he needs to pick DP feom Kiambu. 
Muranga , Nyeri ,Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru Tharaka Nithi and behind Ruto 90 % . Rutos problem is in Kiambu and Nyandarua (Influenced by Kiambu ) .If he can get someone brave who can fight Uhuru the better. Uhuru wont be able to do a 2002 where he got a substantial number of votew against Kibaki.

[Githunguri]

Am looking at it from this perspective,


Can Martha Karua or Kalonzo musyoka protect uhuru when he fallls out with Raila?


Uhuru needs somebody who is on his speed dial and its not those two.