Would the economy had tanked if Ruto had been in charge in 2nd term

[RV Pundit]

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Most folks think Ruto would be politically struggling now with collapsed economy - like Uhuru & his project are now.

Why has the economy collapsed
1) COVID-19 definitely took some sails off it.
2) Uhuru incompetence - the total lack of implementation of BIG 4 - and chasing of BBI mirage.

Ruto had run as incumbent in 2017 - and won - and did it by increasing Jubilee voters by 5 percent - almost beating Raila by 2 million votes. Most of voters came from doubling of paved rural access roads and electricity connections.

So I believe Ruto if Uhuru had allowed him to drive Jubilee would have delivered.

Ruto has always delivered - even when things are totaly screwed like Jubilee nomination of 2017 - Ruto would have delivered Big 4 - and economy would not have tanked - even with Corona.

What was big 4 - everyone in kenya would now be having free medical cover(NHIF) - nearly everyone in Nairobi would be owning a nice little affordable house - if 0.5M had been built - Nairobi has 4.5M with average household size of 3 people - meaning mere 1 million houses required - so 0.5m would pretty much have covered everyone.

With food - there would have been surplus food now - now milk shortages.

Manufacturing - will be off to some good start

Even with COVID-19 - Ruto would have made well reasoned choices - and would have listen to the people

Unfortunately Mlevi took Ruto from driving seat - and gave ill prepared Matiangi the job.

The job the president does cannot be done by civil servants - it requires CONSUMATE POLITICAL OPERATIVE

[Nowayhaha]

The divison in Government has cost Uhuru and secondly buyimg opposition meant Uhuru could steal however much he wanted.
Ruto should make sure in his govt there is unity and a robust oppoaition. That way he has to perform to win the next elections.

[RV Pundit]

I think some misguided fools in Uhuru gov thought Matiangi would measure up and do the job.
The first meeting he called fellow minister snubbed him - they sent CAS.
The second meeting they send PSes.
He didnt bother to call the 3rd meeting. It's really difficult to supervise colleagues.

The job of PORK requires a consumate politician who can unlock all the many arms of gov - executive, parliament, judiciary, 4th estate, 5th estate and of course the people.

Ruto knows how to do this - he knows how engage and keep MPS happy, he knows how get lazy executive to perform, he knows to negotiate with judiciary, he knows how engage the media and keep the as partners, he spend half the time in office, half the time with the people.

It's a lot of hardwork - Ruto used to be in office by 5am - latest 6 am - by mid-day he is out in the field - and be back for many meetings until late night.

You dont just bark orders - and think you can transform the society. It takes a lot of hard, organized and effective work.

The divison in Government has cost Uhuru and secondly buyimg opposition meant Uhuru could steal however much he wanted.
Ruto should make sure in his govt there is unity and a robust oppoaition. That way he has to perform to win the next elections.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Yes, DP would have delivered bigly.Jubilee by now would be one big party they that would expand the winning of 2017 by as much as 10-15%. All that was needed was to implement the big four successfully hands-on to ensure it deliberately employs about 4 million people. I remember DP was so pumped up about the big four like a kid. I thought it would be expensive but he knew the returns, especially employment would outweigh the cost in the short-term but not in the long term. When Uhuru shook hands and uttered BBI first, DP went into depression!

[RV Pundit]

Uhuru has failed Kenyans. He need to be quartered and his Northland city donated to all victims of his misrule.

Yes, DP would have delivered bigly.Jubilee by now would be one big party they that would expand the winning of 2017 by as much as 10-15%. All that was needed was to implement the big four successfully hands-on to ensure it deliberately employs about 4 million people. I remember DP was so pumped up about the big four like a kid. I thought it would be expensive but he knew the returns, especially employment would outweigh the cost in the short-term but not in the long term. When Uhuru shook hands and uttered BBI first, DP went into depression!

[Omollo]

Strange that you say that. When Masinde and I told you to demand Putin-Medvedev and that if they accept you know they are serious and if they refuse you bail out, do you recall what you replied?

I'm not sure Ruto would've delivered. The damage to the Kenyan economy was done and completed in the 1st term. The subsequent mistakes merely aggravated a horrible situation. The theft of public resources was Uhuru's first and foremost priority and he did a good job of it.

Ruto too was part of the looting spree. They shared the Eurobond on 50:50 basis. Even when the Kenyattas started lending money to the Kenya government they did rope in Ruto at first before they got greedy and took all.

Meetings and such Pundit wouldn't help. Waking up at 4 to to go to work kuchapa kazi is for show and quite cosmetic. A butcher known for selling rotten meat can wake up at 4am and  prepare to sell meat. He'll still fail because most of the customers return and reclaim their cash never to return.

Uhuru didn't fail for being late or absent from work. After all noth Jomo & Kibaki were known for getting drunk and sleeping it off.  Does Ruto have the persona and stamina for formal work: yes. But how productive would it be if the system is already rotten, the finances gone and looting established as official policy

[Omollo]

You have a very soft spot for Bill Ruto so I'll treat everything you say with a gunia of pure Himalayan salt.

Upon what basis would Ruto have expanded the Jubilee vote. If he were to take over and deliver it would mean an inevitable war against the Kikuyu Mafia. They know it and hence are rushing to Raila hoping he wins dies and their man "liberates" them again for the 3rd time.

Yours is wishful thinking. Whoever wins this sham election needs to look for Omollo to help him the 1st 50 days. All that should be done must be done and completed within 50 days. He needs a massive propaganda system to drown everyone else;  a special vocabulary and a register of words to aid him. He must know the day he stops or slows down is the day he's gone for good. He can only stop after 5 years.

Raila can't  and Ruto can't

Yes, DP would have delivered bigly.Jubilee by now would be one big party they that would expand the winning of 2017 by as much as 10-15%. All that was needed was to implement the big four successfully hands-on to ensure it deliberately employs about 4 million people. I remember DP was so pumped up about the big four like a kid. I thought it would be expensive but he knew the returns, especially employment would outweigh the cost in the short-term but not in the long term. When Uhuru shook hands and uttered BBI first, DP went into depression!

[hk]

Big 4 is classic liberal tax and spend policy that would have saddled the government with even more debt and little return https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/financial-standard/article/2001291859/the-price-kenyans-will-pay-for-uhurus-big-four-agenda . The economy started taking on water way back in 2016 after capping of interest rates and huge budget deficits. The only economic growth was coming from government spending. There was no organic private sector growth, to keep the economy growing the government started borrowing more to rollover debt. Covid exacerbated the situation but the seeds of economic woes today were planted in the jubilee 1st administration. Without course correction the economy would have been in doldrums today with or without ruto.  sri Lanka or Mozambique are defaulting cause of debt accrued more than 5yrs ago, fiscal profligacy consequences takes time to kick in.
Most kenyans have houses only the urban poor need houses. The problem isn't lack of houses its low incomes. Manufacturing the problem is capital, know how, regulations & taxation and utility cost.  Food, its all about low agriculture productivity.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto has explained it - if you listen to him in Chattam house - and big 4 is the big basis of his next manifesto.

Housing - was not comin from debt - it was coming from forced saving -housing levy- a billion annually from kenyans annually - saving up to pay deposit for the houses - gov was not going to borrow anything - gov has free land - it was dolling out tax incentives to developers.
We had 25B dollars committment. That money would have employed 2-4 million people doing mjengo work. Big chinese construction companies would be here.

Same for others - healthcare - same thing - NHIF is a joke - that 500shs was set in 1990s - salaried people need to pay up - 2000 - and some even 20,000K - for primary healthcare.

NSSF - same thing - still 200 paid in 1990s - it better to scrap it - because surely what is 200shs per month as pension.

Bottomline - we can stop debt - by either selling assets - or saving money - we have to force all people to save money so they can buy houses, get medical care, get pension and gov can borrow those savings.

Big 4 is classic liberal tax and spend policy that would have saddled the government with even more debt and little return https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/business/financial-standard/article/2001291859/the-price-kenyans-will-pay-for-uhurus-big-four-agenda . The economy started taking on water way back in 2016 after capping of interest rates and huge budget deficits. The only economic growth was coming from government spending. There was no organic private sector growth, to keep the economy growing the government started borrowing more to rollover debt. Covid exacerbated the situation but the seeds of economic woes today were planted in the jubilee 1st administration. Without course correction the economy would have been in doldrums today with or without ruto.  sri Lanka or Mozambique are defaulting cause of debt accrued more than 5yrs ago, fiscal profligacy consequences takes time to kick in.
Most kenyans have houses only the urban poor need houses. The problem isn't lack of houses its low incomes. Manufacturing the problem is capital, know how, regulations & taxation and utility cost.  Food, its all about low agriculture productivity.

[Nefertiti]

  hk nails it.

Ruto SGR nonsense was the principal cause of Zamunda present mess. Plus the rest... we flogged that horse to death in Jubilee 1. We opined the Uhuruto manifesto was a harebrained copy-paste of Kibakinomics. The rest - about 5am and Ruto ethics - is laughable ignorance. Are Kenyans suddenly wizened? Nope. Ruto is simply your best demagogue today - that is what the gullible lot are being sold in bottom-up. Ruto is the classic snake-oil salesman. While Raila is the new incumbent: he gets the machinery - must contend with the proverbial "sirikali ni mbaya" bug inculcated since mzungu.

[Nefertiti]

RV Pundit can sell us his MOAS lab report that ignores reality. Not bottom-up and such miracles 

[RV Pundit]

Jubilee 1.0 is dead and buried.. anybody going back to blame it I consider not serious.The verdict was long delivered on 2017.The idea that economy was already bad is not supported by facts.Facts are jubilee 2.0 has out borrowed with absolutely nothing to show for it.1.0 went to infrastructure bar eurobond.This one has gone to recurrent expenditure.. sickening and it already more than we borrowed in jubilee 1.0..by factor of 3.SGR even if uhuru ate big will last centuries and it best investment we have made so far..laying solid foundation for a modern kenya

[RV Pundit]

Ruto gov is promising infrastructure plus bottom up stimulation of the economy.. investment plus consumption.This time round infrastructure will come from savings..not debts.Prepare for forced saving schemes.Ndii has asked for half budget to do his magic of economy( risky venture)..Ruto will get half to complete electrification, paved rural roads and dams.. development or maendeleo that changes life in a fundamental way.Boosting smes is all good but Corona or drought can eliminate all gains.. meanwhile SGR will stand tall for 200yrs

[gout]

Sri Lanka has imploded out of organic agriculture nonsense and lowering taxes which is equivalent of ufool's handchieth war on corruption, subsidies for popularity and sloth.

I am also confident that with sugoi hotshot on the reins, we wont have been here. Most of these are commonsensical and confidence games.

[gout]

What risky venture? Application of more fertilizer is a sure bet in farmers productivity. There is no other magic with ukraine agriculture. Just six times more fertilizers at probably similar cost. Figures are 6-10 billion per season.

There are several refresher courses by Ndii on this bottoms up. Data shows we solved diarrhea and cholera by simple hand washing hands behaviour change. Nearly zero govt investment. Huge savings on household budgets for medical bills.

https://nation.africa/kenya/blogs-opinion/opinion/forget-about-mega-projects-and-address-everyday-woes-430904

There is no justification for inflated mega infrastructure till we tilt the debt GDP ratio.
https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2019/03/18/the-dam-has-broken-time-to-call-jubilee-plunder-what-it-is/

Ruto gov is promising infrastructure plus bottom up stimulation of the economy.. investment plus consumption.This time round infrastructure will come from savings..not debts.Prepare for forced saving schemes.Ndii has asked for half budget to do his magic of economy( risky venture)..Ruto will get half to complete electrification, paved rural roads and dams.. development or maendeleo that changes life in a fundamental way.Boosting smes is all good but Corona or drought can eliminate all gains.. meanwhile SGR will stand tall for 200yrs

[hk]

Kenya debt https://www.centralbank.go.ke/public-debt/  budget deficit https://tradingeconomics.com/kenya/government-budget . This clearly shows the fiscal irresponsibility started immediately after 2013 and continues till today. After 2018 economy entered a vicious debt cycle, the prudent thing wasn't to undertake big 4 but to embark on fiscal responsible policies.
sri lanka defaulted cause it loaded on foreign dominated debt to finance huge infrastructure binge that it couldn't pay as it had depleted forex reserves.  Vat tax cuts of 15% to 8% were not the cause of default.
Ukraine is a major fertilizer manufacturer with arable land, so high usage is to be expected. The bottomline is to make sure farmers can increase productivity without being subsidized by the public. Subsidy means the public taxes are being used to support inefficient producer.. Free market prices would force increase in productivity coupled with more capital investment, not everything needs direct government intervention.

[Georgesoros]

You seem to ignore the factors that are beyond Kenya's control.
Nobody predicted COVID, and then immediately after that - war.
And now inflation.
Cheap money is ending, so expect a lot of turbulence in the developing world

[RV Pundit]

Precisely

Sri Lanka has imploded out of organic agriculture nonsense and lowering taxes which is equivalent of ufool's handchieth war on corruption, subsidies for popularity and sloth.

I am also confident that with sugoi hotshot on the reins, we wont have been here. Most of these are commonsensical and confidence games.

[RV Pundit]

Yes part of it due to external factors but kenya has always been resilient and breezed through most of it.
Some of it sheer incompetence like fuel shortage - Ug or TZ dont have that.
Uhuru simply cannot run anything.

You seem to ignore the factors that are beyond Kenya's control.
Nobody predicted COVID, and then immediately after that - war.
And now inflationCheap money is ending, so expect a lot of turbulence in the developing world

[sema]

COVID changed things so this is hard to answer because we don't know if Ruto would have gone the Magafuli way and said no lockdown or if he would have locked down and for how long.

However, I keep saying that Ruto remains untested and he would be taking over a poor, African country, not a country like Germany with highly skilled, highly productive people.  Africans are Africans (low IQ's, low productivity, low education, tribalism, backwardness, etc).

So, my question is how badly has the economy tanked? because that is what ruto is going to inherit.