Charles Horsnby - predict narrow win of 51 versus 49

[RV Pundit]

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8.3M with 51 percent for Ruto - MOAS has Ruto at 52 percent at 8.5m
8 million with 49 percent for Raila  - MOAS has Raila at 47 percent with 7.5m

I think Charles well thought out model main problem is not factoring other useless candidates who will take 1 percent off.
I think we maybe differ on the turnout....

Again the big assumption is Raila scores 31 percent - versus 71 percent for Ruto - IN GEMA - in Charles - and mine is about the same - predicting about same 30-70 percent.

But evidence so far suggest Raila is taking water in Mt kenya and it's become even more slippery. But there is still expectation that Uhuru and Mama Ngina will make the money work - and somehow turn the tide.

Generally stuff to watch
1) Running mate
2) GEMA
3) Ukambani
4) Luhyas.

Read more here....

https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2022/03/28/predicting-winners-and-losers-in-the-august-2022-poll-the-numbers-game/https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2022/03/28/predicting-winners-and-losers-in-the-august-2022-poll-the-numbers-game/
The Elephant - Speaking truth to power.

[Pajero]

This is good,we are marching on,by the time we reach August it will be 54% Raila,45% Ruto.30% remains the magic number in gema nation.

[RV Pundit]

This is not opinion poll - this prediction of August - it's has no undecided voters. For example opinion polls will show Raila in 10s but MOAS will factor Uhuru playing hard to get 30 percent.

This is good,we are marching on,by the time we reach August it will be 54% Raila,45% Ruto.30% remains the magic number in gema nation.

[Githunguri]

Raila wins at 54%-56%

[Sivel]

Really doubt his assumption that Raila has Ukambani locked. Ukambani and Coast will be battlegrounds, especially if Kalonzo is not made running mate.

As for Kikuyu land, the psychology of the voters will determine turnout. Ruto's supporters are mainly women and youth. They support him out of a sense of fairness to the man without whom their son Uhuru (then) would never have won; and to stick it to Uhuru who has really made them suffer.
Raila's Central Kenya voters will mostly be old men (who are few) fearing the return of times under Moi. The rest will be those who continue to follow Uhuru to the end because they are already emotionally invested in him.
Of the two groups, Ruto's voters are more likely to turn out. Ruto will end up with a higher percentage because his supporters in Central are more motivated, plus he's a mobiliser who will ensure they turn out.

[RV Pundit]

Let wait for BBI on Thursday. Seem Uhuru promised Kalonzo BBI. Otherwise if Kalonzo doesnt get DPORK - then half kambas will vote Ruto.

If Raila picks Kikuyu like PK or Martha - he will not gain any new votes - both have made two boneheaded decision twice in a row and voter trust on their judgement is very low - that leaves really Munya as Raila best bet if he wants Mt kenya. Then Uhuru can pour money and state rigging machinery to get 30% of GEMA - doable - but will come at heavy cost - every vote will cost serious money - otherwise if Uhuru spilling the beans was suppose to turn GEMA - it's done the opposite.

BBI on Thursday will remove one uncertainty. If BBI is allowed - Raila get traction - Ruto will be in danger. Actually Kenya will be in danger because it would show supreme court has been taken hostage - and Ruto folks will change strategy to focus on coming war (see charles conclusion) - because no way that same compromised supreme court will be allowed to resolve presidential dispute - it will be resolved extra-judicially - in the streets and maize plantations.

Then we wait for running mate. And we would be able to call the election with precision.

BBI will be one key determinant for bloodshed in 2022 or not. The next is Uhuru behaviour until 9th August. Kenya is on it's tenterhooks.



Read more at: https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2022/03/28/predicting-winners-and-losers-in-the-august-2022-poll-the-numbers-game/
The Elephant - Speaking truth to power.

Really doubt his assumption that Raila has Ukambani locked. Ukambani and Coast will be battlegrounds, especially if Kalonzo is not made running mate.

As for Kikuyu land, the psychology of the voters will determine turnout. Ruto's supporters are mainly women and youth. They support him out of a sense of fairness to the man without whom their son Uhuru (then) would never have won; and to stick it to Uhuru who has really made them suffer.
Raila's Central Kenya voters will mostly be old men (who are few) fearing the return of times under Moi. The rest will be those who continue to follow Uhuru to the end because they are already emotionally invested in him.
Of the two groups, Ruto's voters are more likely to turn out. Ruto will end up with a higher percentage because his supporters in Central are more motivated, plus he's a mobiliser who will ensure they turn out.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

I go with my guts. Ruto, with no anti-gema rhetoric to rally troops around JaCon will win in so many areas like never seen. In coastal areas except for Mombasa, Ruto will win. In Ukambani, Raila will not get the usual 97%. In Western, Raila will not get the usual 80%+. In the Kamatusa areas, DP will outperform Moi, Uhuru, and Kibaki by far. All in all, DP will win over 56%. There is also a chance that the whole of Kenya, except Nyanza, might vote for DP to punish the handshake government that has brought so much pain to all Kenyans.

[Nowayhaha]

There is noway Ruto can perform worse than Uhurus 54% in 2017.
Uhuru was a poor candidate for Jubilee in Coast, Western and Lower Eastern.
Coast -Land Issues and anti Gema Sentiments
Western -Mudavadis betrayal (Mademoni debacle) and Anti Gema competition.
Lower Eastern-Kalonzos betrayal after ICC shuttle diplomacy and Kibakis 2008 Election defence and also sibling Rivalry.

Now add to the fact he has managed to Keep Jubilee base of GEMA , Rift Valley and North Eastern intact. This is a walk in a park for him.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

There is noway Ruto can perform worse than Uhurus 54% in 2017.
Uhuru was a poor candidate for Jubilee in Coast, Western and Lower Eastern.
Coast -Land Issues and anti Gema Sentiments
Western -Mudavadis betrayal (Mademoni debacle) and Anti Gema competition.
Lower Eastern-Kalonzos betrayal after ICC shuttle diplomacy and Kibakis 2008 Election defence and also sibling Rivalry.

Now add to the fact he has managed to Keep Jubilee base of GEMA , Rift Valley, and North Eastern intact. This is a walk in a park for him.

I agree with your analysis. I have seen a lot of comments from Luo folks on Facebook and other forums saying the same thing. Most sane folks do not see Rails's path to the presidency after dismantling NASA/CORD vehicles. You can only dismantle such coalition if you have Mt Kenya vote locked. Rails may not hit 6M votes....

[sema]

BBI will be one key determinant for bloodshed in 2022 or not. The next is Uhuru behaviour until 9th August. Kenya is on it's tenterhooks

What's going on with this BBI and why is it a key determinant?

They support him out of a sense of fairness to the man without whom their son Uhuru (then) would never have won;

No. It's not out of their sense of fairness.  UHuru has destroyed the economy and young people that needs jobs are the most desperate followed by women that need to put food on the table for their kids.  It's not about fairness. It's always about money.

[RV Pundit]

Dj Simple simon
Supreme court resolve presidential disputes - you do not want a compromised supreme court - because like in 2007 ODM refused to go there - and kenyans killed each other  - at such scale it got everyone scared of another Rwanda.
You know if 5 high court judges and 7 court of appeal judges have condemned BBI - as being hopeless.
Only a very compromised supreme court would breathe life to a dead corpse and allow the constitution to be violently dismantled.
And there is no way it will come out unscathed - it will be confirmed 2007 as useless - No way Ruto will go back three months late to them.
Now if Ruto was to lose -  very narrowly - he would refuse to go or even go - and refuse the verdict of supreme court.
That will spark 2007 bloodshed - this time it's could degenerate into civil war.

This is why Ufool should stay out of the contest  - he really has no point making himself a subject of it - but he is busy compromising every institution that was build in post 2007 - to avoid another meltdown.

Two key institution now that will save us - IEBC and Supreme Court - they need to be on top of things - they need to be beyond refuge - because any little compromise in a contest that is potential very close - is dangerous.

What's going on with this BBI and why is it a key determinant?

[Nowayhaha]

It will add PM and 2 DPM seats. Giving a chance for Kalonzo to save face after being downgraded from DP candidate which is an imminent revolt awaiting Azimio in Lower Eastern. Also Raila wants BBI to bait GEMA by pretending to incorporate them in the line up. PK like the hyena he is has been silivating for BBI instead of working hard.
Without BBI No dwingling of carrots and you will have Railas Azimio perfoming badly in Lower Eastern and being a non factor in GEMA.

BBI will be one key determinant for bloodshed in 2022 or not. The next is Uhuru behaviour until 9th August. Kenya is on it's tenterhooks

What's going on with this BBI and why is it a key determinant?

[RV Pundit]

Most important - it will overhaul 2010 constitution - it's almost for me a declaration of war - except the trigger. It's akin to Sudan passing Sharia law forcing South Sudanese to fight or litany of example where constitution is usurped and people decide to fight.

So BBI is very very dangerous because the timming near an election where potential of conflict are so high.

It will add PM and 2 DPM seats. Giving a chance for Kalonzo to save face after being downgraded from DP candidate which is an imminent revolt awaiting Azimio in Lower Eastern. Also Raila wants BBI to bait GEMA by pretending to incorporate them in the line up. PK like the hyena he is has been silivating for BBI instead of working hard.
Without BBI No dwingling of carrots and you will have Railas Azimio perfoming badly in Lower Eastern and being a non factor in GEMA.

BBI will be one key determinant for bloodshed in 2022 or not. The next is Uhuru behaviour until 9th August. Kenya is on it's tenterhooks

What's going on with this BBI and why is it a key determinant?

[sema]

Haven't followed it closely  but I had assumed it was dead and buried so why are they going back to it?

[Sivel]

It is both. The sense of fairness is there because Kikuyus do not agree with Uhuru betraying him. It's called Kihooto in Kikuyu, a very strong self concept that one should keep to their end of the bargain.

On the economy issue, my personal belief is that were it not for the handshake, Uhuru would still be popular among Kikuyus. He began messing the economy in his first term, though it was less noticeable since we still had the momentum from Kibaki's time. Ndii was all over shouting himself hoarse about it but was ignored.
However, to Uhuru's supporters, Raila was a far bigger bogeyman than his economic delinquency. When he shook Raila's hand, the bogeyman effect vanished, and people started looking at Uhuru's policies more objectively. To his credit, he did try to create another bogeyman in Ruto by using the media and anticorruption agencies. But by then it was too late, and people could see through his scheme. He has been trying this gambit for 3 years now; Sagana four times, and lately State House. And his footsoldiers. It has not been working.

BBI will be one key determinant for bloodshed in 2022 or not. The next is Uhuru behaviour until 9th August. Kenya is on it's tenterhooks

What's going on with this BBI and why is it a key determinant?

They support him out of a sense of fairness to the man without whom their son Uhuru (then) would never have won;

No. It's not out of their sense of fairness.  UHuru has destroyed the economy and young people that needs jobs are the most desperate followed by women that need to put food on the table for their kids.  It's not about fairness. It's always about money.

[RV Pundit]

I think Mt Kenya leaders and people have previously "betrayed" Jaramogi, Raila and even Kalonzo. Kalonzo did the text-book loyalty kiss-arse of kibaki clean - and yet he never really was ever considered a  leader. Kambas felt the Kihooto (sp) never really applied to them -despite Kibaki signing MOU with Kalonzo.

So I think there is a lot in Ruto character - his handwork, his hitting of Raila very hard, his effective campaigning and of course fighting with GEMA for 3 elections - his reliability as person - his resourcefulness - his availability - his leadership that GEMA people and it's leaders have come to admire (or fear - as Uhuru & cabal are clearly terrified by Ruto's incredible talents) - just like Kalenjin did come to understand that Ruto was the real deal - someone who takes leadership seriously - someone reliable - someone decisive - someone who has not time for small-mindness - and 10 subtribes of Kalenjin have never been united - some Kipisgis leaders have tried to cast Ruto as Nandi but no sucess.


GEMA never really consumated their marriage with Jaramogi in 60s or Raila in 2000s - and neither gave much currency to Kalonzo fecklessness.

So all in all - Ruto has earned the voters and admiration of GEMA and National voters by being always the adult in the room, by being present, by available, by providing leadership and by taking seriously his job.
 
 

It is both. The sense of fairness is there because Kikuyus do not agree with Uhuru betraying him. It's called Kihooto in Kikuyu, a very strong self concept that one should keep to their end of the bargain.

On the economy issue, my personal belief is that were it not for the handshake, Uhuru would still be popular among Kikuyus. He began messing the economy in his first term, though it was less noticeable since we still had the momentum from Kibaki's time. Ndii was all over shouting himself hoarse about it but was ignored.
However, to Uhuru's supporters, Raila was a far bigger bogeyman than his economic delinquency. When he shook Raila's hand, the bogeyman effect vanished, and people started looking at Uhuru's policies more objectively. To his credit, he did try to create another bogeyman in Ruto by using the media and anticorruption agencies. But by then it was too late, and people could see through his scheme. He has been trying this gambit for 3 years now; Sagana four times, and lately State House. And his footsoldiers. It has not been working.

BBI will be one key determinant for bloodshed in 2022 or not. The next is Uhuru behaviour until 9th August. Kenya is on it's tenterhooks

What's going on with this BBI and why is it a key determinant?

They support him out of a sense of fairness to the man without whom their son Uhuru (then) would never have won;

No. It's not out of their sense of fairness.  UHuru has destroyed the economy and young people that needs jobs are the most desperate followed by women that need to put food on the table for their kids.  It's not about fairness. It's always about money.

[Sivel]

On BBI, I agree with those who think that it is not a tool to help Azimio but Uhuru. The PM and DPM posts are very weak and can easily be dismissed by the President, so I doubt Uhuru would be gunning for such.
However, just like Moi in 1992, Uhuru will use BBI to justify himself running again, since it's a "new constitution". We might not even have a referendum, he could just sign the Bill and declare there's no need for one (and if dissatisfied, you can go to the Courts he now controls and intimidates).
I hope the Supreme Court justices don't let Kenya down by saving a lame duck president. In 2017 they were very reckless, nullifying a contested election for flimsy reasons. This time, the risk will be civil war, and possibly a class war. Most of those guys are more brilliant than Uhuru whose only claim to fame is his father's name. Why destroy the country because of Kenya's equivalent of the Romanovs?

[KenyanPlato]

This will be an election that will be the hardest to predict. No 9ne is sure what will happen. As for now I think raila has the narrowest path to victory. He needs wetangula back in fold and to do at least over 25% in Central. Plus he needs unmotivated uda in nairobi and central. Kalonzo is going to again poop on raila campaigns. He has gone quite and is not working to consolidate his base. He may have a side deal with ruto. Anyway elections in Africa are useless. No meaningful policy change comes out of it. Just shuffling of decks. Usually two parties with almost same support jostling for power. We are what developed empires become in latter stages before decline

[Sivel]

The difference between them and Ruto is they made deals with Kikuyu elites who pay lip service to Kihooto. Ruto ensured the ordinary proletariat Kikuyu was part of the deal, which Uhuru inadvertently consummated in public by proclaiming yake kumi ya Ruto kumi. Like the rest, Ruto has been betrayed by the elites, but he appealed to the people, who agreed with him.
There was this article that said the difference between Ruto and Raila was who they appealed to after betrayal.

https://arkanuddin.medium.com/raila-vs-raila-5974b2630266

I think Mt Kenya leaders and people have previously "betrayed" Jaramogi, Raila and even Kalonzo. Kalonzo did the text-book loyalty kiss-arse of kibaki clean - and yet he never really was ever considered a  leader. Kambas felt the Kihooto (sp) never really applied to them -despite Kibaki signing MOU with Kalonzo.

So I think there is a lot in Ruto character - his handwork, his hitting of Raila very hard, his effective campaigning and of course fighting with GEMA for 3 elections - his reliability as person - his resourcefulness - his availability - his leadership that GEMA have come to admire - just like Kalenjin did come to understand that Ruto was the real deal - someone who takes leadership seriously - someone reliable - someone decisive.

GEMA never really consumated their marriage with Jaramogi in 60s or Raila in 2000s - and neither gave much currency to Kalonzo fecklessness.
 
 

It is both. The sense of fairness is there because Kikuyus do not agree with Uhuru betraying him. It's called Kihooto in Kikuyu, a very strong self concept that one should keep to their end of the bargain.

On the economy issue, my personal belief is that were it not for the handshake, Uhuru would still be popular among Kikuyus. He began messing the economy in his first term, though it was less noticeable since we still had the momentum from Kibaki's time. Ndii was all over shouting himself hoarse about it but was ignored.
However, to Uhuru's supporters, Raila was a far bigger bogeyman than his economic delinquency. When he shook Raila's hand, the bogeyman effect vanished, and people started looking at Uhuru's policies more objectively. To his credit, he did try to create another bogeyman in Ruto by using the media and anticorruption agencies. But by then it was too late, and people could see through his scheme. He has been trying this gambit for 3 years now; Sagana four times, and lately State House. And his footsoldiers. It has not been working.

BBI will be one key determinant for bloodshed in 2022 or not. The next is Uhuru behaviour until 9th August. Kenya is on it's tenterhooks

What's going on with this BBI and why is it a key determinant?

They support him out of a sense of fairness to the man without whom their son Uhuru (then) would never have won;

No. It's not out of their sense of fairness.  UHuru has destroyed the economy and young people that needs jobs are the most desperate followed by women that need to put food on the table for their kids.  It's not about fairness. It's always about money.

[RV Pundit]

I am only worried about Martha and Njoki - those can easily be intimidated - I would be damned if someone like Lenaola, Smokin, Ibrahim, Ouko would sell their country - this would be the ultimate betrayal of Kenya - of hard won 2010 constitution - and it would certainly begin the descend of kenya.

It would take a really mad court to overturn the work of 5 high court and 7 court of appeal judges. Kenya would essentially be hopeless as Uhuru and Gideon state capture would be complete. Only war at that point would be viable option.

On BBI, I agree with those who think that it is not a tool to help Azimio but Uhuru. The PM and DPM posts are very weak and can easily be dismissed by the President, so I doubt Uhuru would be gunning for such.
However, just like Moi in 1992, Uhuru will use BBI to justify himself running again, since it's a "new constitution". We might not even have a referendum, he could just sign the Bill and declare there's no need for one (and if dissatisfied, you can go to the Courts he now controls and intimidates).
I hope the Supreme Court justices don't let Kenya down by saving a lame duck president. In 2017 they were very reckless, nullifying a contested election for flimsy reasons. This time, the risk will be civil war, and possibly a class war. Most of those guys are more brilliant than Uhuru whose only claim to fame is his father's name. Why destroy the country because of Kenya's equivalent of the Romanovs?