Prof Charles Hornsby declare it too close to call

[RV Pundit]

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With Places Taken, the Dance Begins
19/3/20220 Comments
 
With virtually every match-making exercise complete, the Kenyan political dance now takes on a more structured character as we head into election season proper. We now know that it is a two-horse race between William Ruto and Raila Odinga, each backed by supporting alliances, but with Raila's Azimio openly backed by Uhuru Kenyatta and the state apparatus. With the onboarding of Luhya leaders Mudavadi and Wetang'ula Ruto has strengthened his national credentials and gained a strong base in Western Province, but benefited less than he hoped nationwide. Raila's Azimio alliance has lost the Kikuyu, Embu and Meru but elsewhere has strengthened its position, recently winning over a reluctant Kalonzo Musyoka. The two alliances are now neck and neck overall, with pretty much every model giving both candidates between 7.5 m and 8.5 m votes each, leaving the end result open. A narrow victory for either party is unlikely to be a comfortable outcome for Kenya.

The model below shows my prediction as to which alliance and presidential candidate will (in my opinion, based on multiple factors) win the presidential election in each county. In most cases, the leading candidate is clear, the final result will be determined by the size of their majority.

[patel]

The battle ground is surely in ukambani..kamba votes determines winner in Nairobi and Mombasa....Ruto team should think about sponsoring kamba presidential candidate. Let sonko run for president.

[RV Pundit]

It depend on Kalonzo - if he doesnt become DPORK - then Ukambani become a battleground - for now it's Azimiated at least at elite level - but the people are not convinced.
Nairobi is one that I believe is not in Raila column - it will be battleground.
Ruto has done what Sonko did - build a poor man coalition - hustler nation resonate mostly in urban poor than anywhere else.
Otherwise for now Ruto should concentrate on Kakamega & Vihiga - I think he has Bungoma and Tranzoia.
Western will become difficult when Kikuyu is appointed DPORK - so Ruto will need to do a lot of explaining - and show what MaDVD is getting

But really the battle is in GEMA - as long as Raila isnt coming close to Ruto - there is no way he can beat Ruto

The battle ground is surely in ukambani..kamba votes determines winner in Nairobi and Mombasa....Ruto team should think about sponsoring kamba presidential candidate. Let sonko run for president.

[audacityofhope]

Prof horny declares too close to call. "Final final" Moass says Kenya Kwanza to win by 70% .....

Clearly someone here has a problem!

[RV Pundit]

Toilet.com is really missing you. You need to learn to disagree with people opinions without being disagreeable. It's like you got mentally stunted and you're a man child.

Prof horny declares too close to call. "Final final" Moass says Kenya Kwanza to win by 70% .....

Clearly someone here has a problem!

[KenyanPlato]

Like I have been telling you. The game is still wide open. Your MOAS is making assumptions based on past voting patterns. In kiambu it will come down to how well ruto get out to vote game will resonate with young voters. Most will stay in nairobi and not travel home to vote. The old over 40 years will lean heavily towards raila.

[sema]

Pundit has been telling us how much he respect's hornby's analysis and now Horsnby's analysis doesn't match his MOASS.  If this thing is close the election will be dangerous because they can now rig.  I no longer know who to believe, but the over 40's Kikuyu's are freaked out by Ruto (they say he hates Kikuyu's and will finish them). these are the people that will line up for 8 hours to vote, not the young one's

[RV Pundit]

Older Kikuyu men still smarting from moi terror are inclined to go with Raila while Ruto has youth and the womenfolk..I have seen opinion poll put Ruto consistently at above 75 percent of the decided GEMA voters.The prof hopefully will share his data..but I agree that votes will be around 7.5 to 8.5m except in my model I see Ruto coming tops...Let's see how running mate get settled and how realignments by political elite is received by ground.Ruto biggest headache is fallout from nominations and from picking dpork.Raila headache is mostly running mate and uhuru really campaigning for him beyond the lipservices.Yes the difference is merely 5 percent, riggable and prospect of 2007 now looking very likely

[Pajero]

This thing will be win in gema,that's the battle ground,ask yourself why Ruto is always there.Magic number is 30%.

[RV Pundit]

How did you arrive at 30 percent?
My MOASS has Raila at 35 percent almost - and he still loses.
The magic number for Raila to beat Ruto by 10,000 votes is 49 percent of GEMA.
Before you throw numbers around - at least pretend to do basic arithmetics.

GEMA remember will account for about 25-28 percent of the national vote depending on the turnout.
Every 10 percent of GEMA is therefore 2.5 percent of the national vote.
Every 5 of GEMA percent is therefore 1.25 of the national vote

30 percent give Raila 7.5 percent boost (roughly 1.3m votes of total expected cast votes of 16m) - hardly enough to cover for losses or gains to/of Ruto in many places -flipping(Bungoma, Tranzoia, Turkana, Vihiga, Kwale, Kakamega) to his column- compared to Uhuru 2013/2017.
And if that GEMA support comes at the price of Kalonzo DPORK - then Kambas become also very hard to consolidate - and could even become battleground.

This thing will be win in gema,that's the battle ground,ask yourself why Ruto is always there.Magic number is 30%.

[Tactician]

@RVPundit - please share link/source of Hornsby's prediction.  Somehow I can't access his site - is it down?

[Githunguri]

Very good analysis but fact is that Ruto will only get 50% or less Kikuyu vote.I am always on the ground and I can guarantee this.Raila win is between 56%-60%.

[RV Pundit]

http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog

@RVPundit - please share link/source of Hornsby's prediction.  Somehow I can't access his site - is it down?

[Githunguri]

Pundit has been telling us how much he respect's hornby's analysis and now Horsnby's analysis doesn't match his MOASS.  If this thing is close the election will be dangerous because they can now rig.  I no longer know who to believe, but the over 40's Kikuyu's are freaked out by Ruto (they say he hates Kikuyu's and will finish them). these are the people that will line up for 8 hours to vote, not the young one's

Not over 40 but over 30 year old Kikuyu.Any Kikuyu who saw and heard William Ruto political activity since 2007 most likely won't vote for him.If a kalenjin cannot listen to us Kikuyu let them wait for August 09 from 5pm

[RV Pundit]

Nobody can listen to an idiot like you.
We know how to listen the ground
We have opinion polls
We see leaders defecting to UDA
UDA nomination will be bloodbath
We see Ruto mobbed by crowds
We go to social media and see facebook comments - or twitter.
We go to bars and listen
Sometimes have family in GEMA and listen to them.
We know how to see things without being Kikuyu or Bukusu

Not over 40 but over 30 year old Kikuyu.Any Kikuyu who saw and heard William Ruto polical activity since 2007 most likely won't vote for him.If a kalenjin cannot listen to us Kikuyu let them wait for August 09 from 5pm

[gout]

Even the older kikuyu men will not go with baba by august. There will come a spin which will remind them of Raila who has grown in their heads for years. Either they stay away or turn to ruto. They are already struggling to explain why not circumcision while they are charging 10,000 being a circumcision season of boys. The 1969 oath?

Ruto's sins are YK2, PEV, mwizi and being 'bad' DPORK which have been deconstructed.
How Moi's economic terror is being blamed on ruto is quite an epic propaganda win given Gideon who is holding the loot and ufool the moi orphan are ones driving it.

Older Kikuyu men still smarting from moi terror are inclined to go with Raila while Ruto has youth and the womenfolk..I have seen opinion poll put Ruto consistently at above 75 percent of the decided GEMA voters.The prof hopefully will share his data..but I agree that votes will be around 7.5 to 8.5m except in my model I see Ruto coming tops...Let's see how running mate get settled and how realignments by political elite is received by ground.Ruto biggest headache is fallout from nominations and from picking dpork.Raila headache is mostly running mate and uhuru really campaigning for him beyond the lipservices.Yes the difference is merely 5 percent, riggable and prospect of 2007 now looking very likely

[RV Pundit]

Yeah it dilemma - because it's not easy choice to decide btw Raila and Ruto - so the older men who remember (Moi=Kalenjin) terror are in fix. This mostly kikuyu men - otherwise when it come to Meru/Embu they are ambivalent on Moi terror. I think Ruto represent the Kalenjin elite - Gideon Moi is just a joker - and represent Moi the family. So Ruto bring dread of Kalenjin terror - the same way Raila represent Luo arrogance and terror.

Even the older kikuyu men will not go with baba by august. There will come a spin which will remind them of Raila who has grown in their heads for years. Either they stay away or turn to ruto. They are already struggling to explain why not circumcision while they are charging 10,000 being a circumcision season of boys. The 1969 oath?

Ruto's sins are YK2, PEV, mwizi and being 'bad' DPORK which have been deconstructed.
How Moi's economic terror is being blamed on ruto is quite an epic propaganda win given Gideon who is holding the loot and ufool the moi orphan are ones driving it.

Older Kikuyu men still smarting from moi terror are inclined to go with Raila while Ruto has youth and the womenfolk..I have seen opinion poll put Ruto consistently at above 75 percent of the decided GEMA voters.The prof hopefully will share his data..but I agree that votes will be around 7.5 to 8.5m except in my model I see Ruto coming tops...Let's see how running mate get settled and how realignments by political elite is received by ground.Ruto biggest headache is fallout from nominations and from picking dpork.Raila headache is mostly running mate and uhuru really campaigning for him beyond the lipservices.Yes the difference is merely 5 percent, riggable and prospect of 2007 now looking very likely

[sema]

[Nefertiti]

yes I believe Raila older Gema supporters have better turnout than Ruto younger base.

Meru very unlikely to be "large majority Ruto"

Like I have been telling you. The game is still wide open. Your MOAS is making assumptions based on past voting patterns. In kiambu it will come down to how well ruto get out to vote game will resonate with young voters. Most will stay in nairobi and not travel home to vote. The old over 40 years will lean heavily towards raila.

[Nefertiti]

How will Kikuyus prevent/escape PEV?