The original sin in Kenya's politics is betrayal. This was carried out by Jomo Kenyatta and his Kiambu Mafia against Jaramogi and other leaders such as Mboya. In fact, they got so arrogant that they even started excluding other Kikuyus, claiming that Uthamaki will never cross River Chania.
What they weren't prepared for was Mzee's frailty and eventual death before they could work out amongst themselves who should lead next. Njonjo did a fast one on them and ensured Moi ascended to the Presidency, expecting to control him. But as Kangata was telling Murathe the other day regarding Raila who they expect to be their puppet, once the balance of power changes, the Kingmakers are some of the first casualties as a new occupant consolidates his power. So Njonjo was thrown out.
In those times, Kikuyus were really hated due to Kenyatta's exclusion of other communities, and Moi was quite popular among them. Unfortunately, his mismanagement of government extended to all, and by 2002 was extremely unpopular.
Now fast forward to 2002 and Kibaki rides to power on a coalition of sundry opposition parties. While I think entertaining Raila's MoU to be Prime Minister was a mistake, Kibaki did himself no favours by making his government to Kikuyu centred. The Mafia was back, only this time it was Mt Kenya and not just Kiambu. Read Michela Wrong's
It's Our Turn to Eat and you'll see my point.
By 2005 going to 2007, Kikuyus were isolated in government. Of course Raila saw this and capitalised on it, but it would not have been such an issue had Kibaki led a more inclusive government. The economy had grown, but political grievances still abounded.
Then 2007 happened. According to some sources including Michela Wrong's book, violence against Kikuyus was planned whether or not Raila won. In Rift Valley, people had seen the chance to finally get their land back which they felt had been stolen by the Kikuyu diaspora with the help of Kenyatta after he stole their land back home.
Fast forward to 2013, UhuRuto came together. The proletariat Kikuyu saw this as a peace treaty, and voted the ticket to leadership both times.
Now to today. I think Uhuru misunderstood his original handshake with Ruto. Most Kikuyus are uncomfortable breaking that covenant for what they see as Uhuru's selfish reasons. Uhuru on his part, still thinks that political kingpins can be followed unquestioningly like Raila is, but is realising that it's not true.
The way 2022 goes will affect lots of politicians. Kikuyu hegemony cultivated by Jomo Kenyatta, I argue, is the reason why we have tribal voting in Kenya, which is not seen in regional countries. Most other communities saw what the Kikuyus were doing, and were told by their leaders that if they don't stand by them the Kikuyus will finish them. Kikuyus on the other hand were fed the same, that if another tribe takes power they'll be annihilated (and given the example of Moi).
In this election, Kikuyus seem poised to vote Ruto. This is more significant because, unlike Luos in 2002 who were told by Raila to vote for Kibaki, the Kikuyus are doing it in defiance of their political leader in power, Uhuru. Other tribes will notice.
The era of political leaders betraying other leaders and expecting unquestionable support from their bases is at an end. While this election will have some aspect of tribal voting, Kikuyus, I think, will be at the vanguard of tribeless politics, having started it at independence. And they're the only ones who could have ended it.