MOASS explanatory notes

[RV Pundit]

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MOASS makes two projection..Turn out and % of votes I expect every presidential candidate to take.I normally slightly differ with opinion polls as I believe they get it wrong in multi ethnic counties or region.Tribe remain king.I will shortly release moass explaining why I picked those random numbers for each county.

[RV Pundit]

Opinions pollster according to their weight..Tifa, Radio Africa,Mizani and with lots of salt Ambitho infotrak.There are other random ones...but those have been consistent

[RV Pundit]

Elected leaders defections and alignment Charles Hornsby has been doing a great job in his blog.This week should be Iebc deadline for those intending to run on parties.

[RV Pundit]

All key tribal and sub tribal leaders have aligned themselves except a few.. should be done by week.

[RV Pundit]

MOASS has 2009 census tribal breakdown that should be steady except in major urban areas as Kenya urbanize...at 4 percent rate annually.Should largely affect Nairobi and Mombasa metro

[RV Pundit]

Social media forums..couple of big ones in each county or community especially Facebook groups.Majority have 100k members unlike nipatie 20 members.You get good feel of the politics of you ignore a few trolls

[RV Pundit]

Finally campaign rallies, attendance, heckling, enthusiasm, hostility is small factor but now both parties are clearly manipulating images and videos.

[RV Pundit]

Turn out projection is really about history, candidate, and the issues.We have good indicator from new registration but historical turnout and key issues important...it goes without saying that kalenjin followed by Luos will turn up in large numbers..mt Kenya is going to be suppressed.The rest will play around their usual percentages as generally they don't have a dog in this fight.I see a 5 percent drop in turnout unless the cost of living counties to be a nightmare

[RV Pundit]

Finally we will look at each county figures and understand why they will vote that way

[Nefertiti]

Finally campaign rallies, attendance, heckling, enthusiasm, hostility is small factor but now both parties are clearly manipulating images and videos.

i hope you don't use Itumbi fake videos for rally attendance.

Watch from 4:42

Itumbi caught red-handed sharing fake photos of Ruto Jacaranda rally

[RV Pundit]

Both sides have done that.
Opinion polls are going to the next focus for manipulation - in bid to create a fake momentum.

Finally campaign rallies, attendance, heckling, enthusiasm, hostility is small factor but now both parties are clearly manipulating images and videos.

i hope you don't use Itumbi fake videos for rally attendance.

Watch from 4:42

Itumbi caught red-handed sharing fake photos of Ruto Jacaranda rally

[RV Pundit]

Here we go

Final MOAS explanatory - Coast region of 5 counties - I expect Ruto to significantly improve in Kwale and slightly do better than Uhuru did in more populous Kilifi & Mombasa.Azimio now has edge in Kilifi. Lamu & Tana river tiny registered will be 50-50 battle btw KK & Azimio pic.twitter.com/vDMQmyrLWz

— Pundit (@rvpundit) March 17, 2022

[RV Pundit]

Explanatory notes for COAST

[Nefertiti]

Radio Africa is better than you & Mizani. Raila leads in 6 provinces.. Ruto has mere RV & Central

This is what they were whining about at UDA ndc

[RV Pundit]

Radio Africa is better than you & Mizani. Raila leads in 6 provinces.. Ruto has mere RV & Central

This is what they were whining about at UDA ndc

what Radio Africa track record.. gazette ya moi protege kiprono.MoAss has never been wrong by anything more than a percent