I invite you to study the terrain like I do.
You have millions of jobless youths.
You have millions of immigrant communities sitting ducks - most of them living in close proximity with warriors.
You have a political cause.
You have a disaster waiting if you were to ingnite that fire.
That is what I DO. I look at issue dispassionately.
I dont think police will be a match to Kalenjin nation that erupts in all its corners.
Police will have IDP situation to handle as everyone will run to the police station or churches (after Kiambaa might not be good idea) - so police will be overwhelmed.
Although the warriors are rudimentary trained in warfare - they understand the geographical terrain - are adept at night battles- are going to outnumber police almost 100 to 1...20 to 1 if you deploy all of them to guard Kalenjin nation.
There is a risk - Museveni and Kiir - might want some action in Kenya - so if guns are involved - then things go south very very fast.
Kenya police force in entirity is about 100K. Kalenjin males are about 4million - about 2 million can be mobilized as fighting force - those are 15yrs - 40yrs males.
Hutu had state backing & sponsorship. It was a state-run genocide. No competence was needed as cops looked the other way.
Kalenjin boys - without non-Gema political cover - will not stand against a forewarned GoK. Definitely no power will be attained, just some dead or displaced peasants. PEV 2022 if it occurs will not be a game-changer ala 2007 - just an unfortunate after-effect of democracy in Africa.
That satellite tallying center is a better strategy.
How do you rank Rwanda Hutus killing 0.8M Tusti in 3 months? That was pretty grim. Let not talk about the injured and the raped. or almost entire population being evicted from Rwanda. Or warrior evicting 0.65m peasant in 3 days - pretty grim. Sometimes even a panga or arrow is dangerous. Nuclear pretty awesome if you enjoy killing folks - but nobody has the guts to throw it.