Okay finally found a way for Raila to win 2022

[RV Pundit]

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I really struggled with this one -  I had to make Raila beat Ruto in all counties except the 14 in Rift Valley.
I gave him Kalonzo 2017 figures almost for NASA.
I gave him win in all the western counties
I gave Raila win in all GEMA counties - save for Nakuru & Laikipia

After a lot of hard work - I finally got Raila winning by a whisker 50 percent !

Percentage   Total votes   
William Ruto   49   7,651,996   
Raila Odinga   50   7,893,990   
Others   1   157,030   
Turn out   75      
GAP      241,994   

[RV Pundit]

This is was not easy

County Code   County Name   Areas
1   MOMBASA   Raila
2   KWALE   Raila
3   KILIFI   Raila
4   TANA RIVER   Raila
5   LAMU   Raila
6   TAITA TAVETA   Raila
7   GARISSA   Raila
8   WAJIR   Raila
9   MANDERA   Raila
10   MARSABIT   Raila
11   ISIOLO   Raila
12   MERU   Raila
13   THARAKA NITHI   Raila
14   EMBU   Raila
15   KITUI   Raila
16   MACHAKOS   Raila
17   MAKUENI   Raila
18   NYANDARUA   Raila
19   NYERI   Raila
20   KIRINYAGA   Raila
21   MURANGA   Raila
22   KIAMBU   Raila
23   TURKANA   Ruto
24   WEST POKOT   Ruto
25   SAMBURU   Ruto
26   TRANS NZOIA   Ruto
27   UASIN GISHU   Ruto
28   ELGEYO/MARAKWET   Ruto
29   NANDI   Ruto
30   BARINGO   Ruto
31   LAIKIPIA   Ruto
32   NAKURU   Ruto
33   NAROK   Ruto
34   KAJIADO   Ruto
35   KERICHO   Ruto
36   BOMET   Ruto
37   KAKAMEGA   Raila
38   VIHIGA   Raila
39   BUNGOMA   Raila
40   BUSIA   Raila
41   SIAYA   Raila
42   KISUMU   Raila
43   HOMA BAY   Raila
44   MIGORI   Raila
45   KISII   Raila
46   NYAMIRA   Raila
47   NAIROBI CITY   Raila
      
   Percentage   
William Ruto   49   
Raila Odinga   50   
Others   1   
Turn out   75   
GAP      

[RV Pundit]

Raila has to win everywhere - all these counties- to beat Ruto by 1 percent.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto just need to nail homeground of RV -

[RV Pundit]

Conclusion; Raila win is POSSIBLE JUST IMPROBABLE IMPLAUSIBLE

He has perform miracles literally - beat Ruto in GEMA, Win Kalonzo & win in Western against maDVD+Ruto+Weta, then carry COAST+NEP

All Ruto need to do is win Rift Valley with high turnout  - and get what Jubilee got in 2017 in other areas   outside GEMA - and he still beat JAKOM

[RV Pundit]

Realistically now - if he gets Kalonzo - he will end up at 2017 - 45% against 55% - with a gap of 1.5Million votes.

[Pajero]

Let me make it easy for you,you are going the long way for nothing.Uhuru got 8.2 million votes in 2017.out of this,direct GEMA votes were about 5.5 million.Assume Uhuru sways 40% of this GEMA vote on his side,(2.2 million).

Raila got 6.8 million,Assume Mudavadi and Weta go with 0.8million,leaving Raila with 6 million(assuming Kalonzo stays put).Add the 2.2m uhuru GEMA votes to Railas 6 M votes and you get 8.2M votes.

Come over to Ruto,he remains with 6 million votes(after uhurus 2.2M GEMA votes).Add him the 0.8M MDVD and Weta western votes and he maximizes at 6.8M votes.

There is no way Ruto can beat Raila,wachana na MOA,s this is the real one.

[RV Pundit]

Lots of false assumption.
Like assuming that of 8.2M votes GEMA total votes were 5.5M.
5.5m was about the total registered gema votes - roughly 28 percent - higher than their population quota.
Those that actually turned and voted were about 4.6m - about half of Uhuru votes - roughly 28 percent.
Now for Uhuru to take 2.2m - you're saying Uhuru will take half of GEMA votes.
That is improbable but even if we give it to Jakom - and give him to Kalonzo he still wont win.
The reason is obvious Luhya votes is bigger than Kambas votes.
If you assume that Raila will lose half of what he got to maDVD+Weta - then you're talking more than a million votes - if you assume Luhya total votes are 2million plus - but their turnout normally aint good.
So again you see keep Kalonzo,
Lose MaDVD+Weta
Gain in Mt Kenya - a little from lameduck who has been abandoned.
Zero sum game - you're back to 45 percent.
Unless of course you win half of GEMA - 2.2m votes you're talking about.
Then it becomes very close call.
Though Kalenjin have edge of nearly 0.4m votes over Luos.
The rest is essentially win here; lose here;

So Raila path to victory is to
1) Get Kalonzon onboard - and pray Kambas dont revolt due to fatigue. That is the bare minimum before we talk
2) Pray for half of GEMA votes. All evidence suggest that is mountain to climb....as more and more leaders are leaving uhuru jubilee.
3) Pray that western kenya doesnt become a disaster....given maDVD+Weta are getting their groove back.

Let me make it easy for you,you are going the long way for nothing.Uhuru got 8.2 million votes in 2017.out of this,direct GEMA votes were about 5.5 million.Assume Uhuru sways 40% of this GEMA vote on his side,(2.2 million).

Raila got 6.8 million,Assume Mudavadi and Weta go with 0.8million,leaving Raila with 6 million(assuming Kalonzo stays put).Add the 2.2m uhuru GEMA votes to Railas 6 M votes and you get 8.2M votes.

Come over to Ruto,he remains with 6 million votes(after uhurus 2.2M GEMA votes).Add him the 0.8M MDVD and Weta western votes and he maximizes at 6.8M votes.

There is no way Ruto can beat Raila,wachana na MOA,s this is the real one.

[patel]

Raila has no path to presidency this time around no matter how you massage the numbers or do acrobats. Kama haiko, haiko.

[RV Pundit]

Let him first sign Kamba nation.

Raila has no path to presidency this time around no matter how you massage the numbers or do acrobats. Kama haiko, haiko.

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Bomori, Kaibar biik kabisa! Iman ng'alechu?

[RV Pundit]

Momi komosin!

Bomori, Kaibar biik kabisa! Iman ng'alechu?

[Nowayhaha]

Kenyan election not unless so.ething happens to Ruto .Its a done deal . Ruto will be the President .

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

Raila has no path to presidency this time around no matter how you massage the numbers or do acrobats. Kama haiko, haiko.

You are very correct, sir!

[audacityofhope]

What makes leaders in various fields effective, is being able to explain complex issues in simple terms. And you just did @Pajero. You are a genius! Now let them not take serious what you just posted, at their own peril.

Let me make it easy for you,you are going the long way for nothing.Uhuru got 8.2 million votes in 2017.out of this,direct GEMA votes were about 5.5 million.Assume Uhuru sways 40% of this GEMA vote on his side,(2.2 million).

Raila got 6.8 million,Assume Mudavadi and Weta go with 0.8million,leaving Raila with 6 million(assuming Kalonzo stays put).Add the 2.2m uhuru GEMA votes to Railas 6 M votes and you get 8.2M votes.

Come over to Ruto,he remains with 6 million votes(after uhurus 2.2M GEMA votes).Add him the 0.8M MDVD and Weta western votes and he maximizes at 6.8M votes.

There is no way Ruto can beat Raila,wachana na MOA,s this is the real one.

[RV Pundit]

Lame as always. There is no space limit for you to explain how Raila will win 2022. It simply doesnt exist.

What makes leaders in various fields effective, is being able to explain complex issues in simple terms. And you just did @Pajero. You are a genius! Now let them not take serious what you just posted, at their own peril.