These things are easy to predict
Let keep it Mps
In 2013 - URP had 72 mps plus TNA 85 mps - ODM had 96Mp - all mps+women rep.
I predicted Jubilee would improve from combined 160Mps to close to 190Mps
ODM would sink from 96 to now about 70Mps.
I think Jubilee now has about 140 elected const Mp - about 26/30 women Mps - plus nominated Mps
It about 190-200Mps if you include KANU and allied parties. NASA crew have about 130Mps - with ODM 70, Kalonzo 20, maDVD 12 and Weta 5 - and allied parties.
Now looking at the map - Ruto strategic decisions - his wide national appeal - Raila's weaken ODM as compromise with AZIMIO parties and in attempt to run away from Orange
- now donning blue gear - ODM will leak!
I am predicting UDA including Kenya Kwanza will improve - by retaining Jubilee 190Mps - to almost 225.
All Ruto need to do is retain UDA's former Jubilee zone, work on western to get 20 mps, and then take advantage of Azimio gazillion parties in Ukambani, Coast, Gusii and such.
I dont see how Azimio crew can agree on joint candidate for any other seats apart from PORK. Even today in Kilifi - PAA have refused to attend a rally.
ODM this time round will LEAK even in Luo Nyanza. The decision not go for nomination but use fake opinion polls is postponing a problem
Raila has made strategic decision to kill ODM and try to get power. If it backfires; ODM is dead meat; Raila is dead; Ruto enjoy the biggest mandate ever in modern history of kenya.
In fact even that 40 Mps - might be a tall order for ODM. They may end up with 30 mps