Ruto has broad based national coalition. Kiambu is flip in the radar. Kiambu has 1.2m votes - and we expect to see very low turnout. Kakamega has 850K, Bungoma nearly the same. Nakuru is pretty much wrapped - as RV diaspora seem to have permanently cut the umbical cord with Central - after Uhuru betrayed them.
So I dont buy that Kiambu is critical. Maybe for Raila. I dont see how Kiambu DPORK can be appointed to replace Uhuru. That would make the Two Kabila problem Ruto faces even more daunting.
So just forget about Kiambu getting anything - when Uhuru is just finishing. They need timeout.
Nairobi is behemoth and I think it's pretty much has everyone now....
The top 10 counties
47 NAIROBI CITY Kikiyu 29%,Akamba 17%,Luo 16%,Luhya 15%, 139560 2250853 2390413
22 KIAMBU Gikuyu 81%, Akamba 6%,Luhya & Others 13% 54668 1180920 1235588
32 NAKURU Gikuyu 52%,Kalenjin 37%;others 18% 58436 949618 1008054
37 KAKAMEGA Luhya 93% ,Luo,Gikuyu &others 7% - Luhya subtribes -Kabras,Wanga,Itsoho-ldakho,Bunyore,Marama,Kisia 53055 743736 796791
12 MERU Meru 94%,Gikuyu,Akamba 2% - Meru subtribes (Imenti (50%), Tigania, Igembe) 45083 702480 747563
16 MACHAKOS Akamba 91%,Gikuyu 5% & others 4% 37454 620254 657708
1 MOMBASA Mijikenda 30%,Luo 16%,Luhya 15%,Akamba 17%,others 20% 37911 580223 618134
21 MURANGA Gikuyu 94%,Akamba & others 5% 22082 587126 609208
39 BUNGOMA Luhya 83%, Kalenjin 12%,Teso & others 5% - Luhya subtribes (Bukusu, Tachoni) 49186 559850 609036
45 KISII Gusii 97%, Luo & others 3% -Gusii clans-Kitutu , Mugirango, Majoge, Wanjare , Bassi, and Nyaribari. 54089 546580 600669
42 KISUMU Luo 89%,Luhya 6%,others 5% - Luo clans (Jo-Kano,Jo-kisumu,Jo-Nyakach,Jo-Seme) 41716 539210 580926
Gachagua and Alice are not from Kiambu. Nyeri and Muranga is Ruto locked . He needs a united Kiambu to back him and With Kiambu and Nakuru and sharing Nairobi he will be ahead.
Kiambu politics is a little bit different. Ruto needs to pacify any competition there.Kibaki knows too well what happened in 1997 and 2002.