MOAS Scenario - Raila winning only possible under two scenarios

[RV Pundit]

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1) If he secures Kalonzo(OKA) crew - he add himself 1.3M votes - moves to 46 percent - that assumes 35 percent support in most GEMA (a stretch)

   Percentage   Total votes
William Ruto   53   8,577,693
Raila Odinga   39   6,299,301
Kalonzo Musyoka+GM   8   1,309,663
Turn out   77   

2)Ruto would be at 53 percent - with a million more votes.

3) Where would Raila get a million extra votes?  Remember Western - I have put Raila at 80 percent in Vihiga, 35 percent in Vihiga & Bungoma and 45 percent in Kakamega - with Ruto edging him in Kakamega by whisker (55 percent) - winning both Vihiga and Bungoma by 65 percent.

Coast+NEP - I have Raila already at 70 percent in Kilifi, 65 in Mombasa, he loses Kwale to Ruto but get 35 percent, and pretty much NEP+Matusa they are playing 50-50 with Ruto & Raila sharing the spoils.

4) Raila already doing well in Gusii scoring 70 percent - way more than he did in 2017.

5) So where else will he get votes?

6) Conclusion - based on the data - Raila need to score 50 percent of GEMA to go neck to neck with Ruto.

This only scenario he wins!! Anything short of 50 percent in Mt kenya for Raila is not going to cut.

In Summary
1) Sign OKA
2) Win 50 percent of Mt Kenya

[RV Heavy Hitter!]

1) If he secures Kalonzo(OKA) crew - he add himself 1.3M votes - moves to 46 percent - that assumes 35 percent support in most GEMA (a stretch)

   Percentage   Total votes
William Ruto   53   8,577,693
Raila Odinga   39   6,299,301
Kalonzo Musyoka+GM   8   1,309,663
Turn out   77   

2)Ruto would be at 53 percent - with a million more votes.

3) Where would Raila get a million extra votes?  Remember Western - I have put Raila at 80 percent in Vihiga, 35 percent in Vihiga & Bungoma and 45 percent in Kakamega - with Ruto edging him in Kakamega by whisker (55 percent) - winning both Vihiga and Bungoma by 65 percent.

Coast+NEP - I have Raila already at 70 percent in Kilifi, 65 in Mombasa, he loses Kwale to Ruto but get 35 percent, and pretty much NEP+Matusa they are playing 50-50 with Ruto.

4) Raila already doing well in Gusii scoring 70 percent - way more than he did in 2017.

5) So where else will he get votes?

6) Conclusion - based on the data - Raila need to score 50 percent of GEMA to go neck to neck with Ruto.

This only scenario he wins!! Anything short of 50 percent in Mt kenya for Raila is not going to cut.

In Summary
1) Sign OKA
2) Win 50 percent of Mt Kenya

Why are you assuming that Kalonzo will get all the 1.3 million votes, especially in Ukambani. I don't think Raila will get 96-97% of Kamba votes for the third time. My gut says 800K-900K votes. DP will more like do better than Uhuru's 2013 and 2017! It looks like this thing boils down to Pastoralists and Gema!

[RV Pundit]

I have Ruto at 25 percent in Ukambani - opinion polls have Ruto very high at 40 percent plus in Ukambani and Western - but I believe when campaign proper begin - Kalonzo will do damage to Ruto - so it's best to stick with solid numbers - not fickle support.

Ukambani likely to revolt - but that is unproven. Will continue to watch the polls.

Generally I am being generous to Raila - all the numbers I have given him a lot of benefit of doubt - although so far - I dont see the enthusiasm.

GEMA will decide this election.

Why are you assuming that Kalonzo will get all the 1.3 million votes, especially in Ukambani. I don't think Raila will get 96-97% of Kamba votes for the third time. My gut says 800K-900K votes. DP will more like do better than Uhuru's 2013 and 2017! It looks like this thing boils down to Pastoralists and Gema!

[Pajero]

Stop wasting time, Raila is the next pork,save your MOA,s for supreme court appeal,you can present them as evidence.

[RV Pundit]

I have all the time for this. So dont you worry.

Stop wasting time, Raila is the next pork,save your MOA,s for supreme court appeal,you can present them as evidence.

[Pajero]

Can you go ahead and distribute the 8.5 Ruto votes per former 8  provinces for easier digestion.

[RV Pundit]

It going to be difficult digestions - despite being very generous giving Raila 60 percent of Nairobi and 30 percent of central - and giving him almost 70 percent of Ukambani - bado muko na 1 million plus gap.

Hii Kitu Ruto amebeba.

Can you go ahead and distribute the 8.5 Ruto votes per former 8  provinces for easier digestion.

[Pajero]

You are getting it wrong in RV,COAST,WESTERN,EASTERN AND NE.In RV even when Uhuruto were still together in 2017, they managed 2.6M and Baba managed 0.9M.You increase Rutos votes by almost 0.8M and reduced Railas by 0.2M.In western Ruto cannot beat Raila come rain come sunshine.The worst Raila can get is 0.9 M votes while the best Ruto can achieve is 0.3M.In coast you are very generous to Ruto,he cannot get 41%.The very best he can do is 30%.NE, as usual will follow Uhuru,already Garisa,wajir and Mandera are azimio.In central Baba will do better than that is i see him hitting a million votes./In eastern Embu will die with their son speaker Muturi,the remaining meru and Tharaka will be split into two,(about 700,000) votes while kambas votes baba to the last man.The maximum Ruto can achieve is 6.5 M.

[Pajero]

And when did registered voters in RV hit 5.6 M.where are you getting your data,last time they were 4.6 add about 20OK new voters.Stop inflating Rutos numbers.

[Githunguri]

AUGUST 2017 Presidential Vote.


Uhuru Kenyatta   William Ruto   Jubilee Party   8,223,369   54.17%
Raila Odinga   Kalonzo Musyoka   National Super Alliance   6,822,812   44.94%

AUGUST 2022 100% Prediction.

Majority of Uhuru 54% vote was GEMA...So lets assume that his support the 54% vote will be 15% in 2022...coupled with a lesser voter turnout in GEMA..that reduces Ruto to 39%... ..In case Kalonzo goes all the way to the ballot and denies Raila his 8%...that reduces Raila to 36%...Now if uhuru adds Raila his 15% that pushes Raila Odinga to presidency with 51% win...so this election will be Raila 51% Ruto 39% Poor Kaloi 8%

[Nowayhaha]

15% of the national vote if we take voter turnout in 2017 is 2.25 Million votes. Now tell me which counties in Mt Kenya will give raila that Much ?

AUGUST 2017 Presidential Vote.


Uhuru Kenyatta   William Ruto   Jubilee Party   8,223,369   54.17%
Raila Odinga   Kalonzo Musyoka   National Super Alliance   6,822,812   44.94%

AUGUST 2022 100% Prediction.

Majority of Uhuru 54% vote was GEMA...So lets assume that his support the 54% vote will be 15% in 2022...coupled with a lesser voter turnout in GEMA..that reduces Ruto to 39%... ..In case Kalonzo goes all the way to the ballot and denies Raila his 8%...that reduces Raila to 36%...Now if uhuru adds Raila his 15% that pushes Raila Odinga to presidency with 51% win...so this election will be Raila 51% Ruto 39% Poor Kaloi 8%

[Githunguri]

15% of the national vote if we take voter turnout in 2017 is 2.25 Million votes. Now tell me which counties in Mt Kenya will give raila that Much ?

AUGUST 2017 Presidential Vote.


Uhuru Kenyatta   William Ruto   Jubilee Party   8,223,369   54.17%
Raila Odinga   Kalonzo Musyoka   National Super Alliance   6,822,812   44.94%

AUGUST 2022 100% Prediction.

Majority of Uhuru 54% vote was GEMA...So lets assume that his support the 54% vote will be 15% in 2022...coupled with a lesser voter turnout in GEMA..that reduces Ruto to 39%... ..In case Kalonzo goes all the way to the ballot and denies Raila his 8%...that reduces Raila to 36%...Now if uhuru adds Raila his 15% that pushes Raila Odinga to presidency with 51% win...so this election will be Raila 51% Ruto 39% Poor Kaloi 8%

Learn to read,understand and then reply

[RV Pundit]

Wailing n teeth gnashing..angalia vizuri RV total registered votes is 5.1m rounded off

[RV Pundit]

AUGUST 2017 Presidential Vote.


Uhuru Kenyatta   William Ruto   Jubilee Party   8,223,369   54.17%
Raila Odinga   Kalonzo Musyoka   National Super Alliance   6,822,812   44.94%

AUGUST 2022 100% Prediction.

Majority of Uhuru 54% vote was GEMA...So lets assume that his support the 54% vote will be 15% in 2022...coupled with a lesser voter turnout in GEMA..that reduces Ruto to 39%... ..In case Kalonzo goes all the way to the ballot and denies Raila his 8%...that reduces Raila to 36%...Now if uhuru adds Raila his 15% that pushes Raila Odinga to presidency with 51% win...so this election will be Raila 51% Ruto 39% Poor Kaloi 8%

Crazy assumptions

[RV Pundit]

You are getting it wrong in RV,COAST,WESTERN,EASTERN AND NE.In RV even when Uhuruto were still together in 2017, they managed 2.6M and Baba managed 0.9M.You increase Rutos votes by almost 0.8M and reduced Railas by 0.2M.In western Ruto cannot beat Raila come rain come sunshine.The worst Raila can get is 0.9 M votes while the best Ruto can achieve is 0.3M.In coast you are very generous to Ruto,he cannot get 41%.The very best he can do is 30%.NE, as usual will follow Uhuru,already Garisa,wajir and Mandera are azimio.In central Baba will do better than that is i see him hitting a million votes./In eastern Embu will die with their son speaker Muturi,the remaining meru and Tharaka will be split into two,(about 700,000) votes while kambas votes baba to the last man.The maximum Ruto can achieve is 6.5 M.

Do you moass then we meet on 9th..you know my record on these things speak for itself... eagerly awaiting prof Charles Hornby to do his own..that only guy who understands Kenya politics like no one else...the figures I have are Ruto worse case scenario otherwise his best case is 56 percent... against Azimio 44..let wait see if uhuru will turn tables in three months...see how western and eastern respond the realignment as madvd+Weta sell Ruto..and kalonzo also sell his deal with Raila... otherwise mambo na north eastern hapo hakuna kura..focus on those three regions..or just my figures..