Yes true - fallout happened on 2nd day - after swearing - but they thought it was just hiccups - unaware Kibaki and his mafia had no intention to honour the deal. Kibaki health didnt help.
Anyway Kibaki disappointed me - I wish he had just honoured the MOU - and stuck to the reform agenda - not become insular and try to re-enact a kikuyu regime - when kenyans had broke free from tribalism to elect him with 2/3 majority.
It was the biggest let down - and personally I quit supporting him in 2004.
Back to issue - Moi was not saved by Raila or Kibaki - he was saved by the Americans who guaranteed his jail free ticket as long as he handed over power and stayed out of politics. As much as Moi had disappointed Kalenjin nation - he was and still is a revered hero who had impacted Kalenjin in big ways - and touching him would have definitely sparked a civil war.
I wasn't wrong saying 2003. Remember, elections were in Dec 2002. These Goldenberg things were happening in 2003-2004, the first year of NARC after Kibaki swearing in almost (close to) New Years. And even if the rift started immediately, they were still managing it for a while as things got worse. Only when Raila and company walked out did it fully mature. But for at least some months they were getting along. I remember Kibaki visiting Nyeri to cross River Chania as president with Raila.