You need an excel so you can play with scenarios. Right now in my MOASS Ruto is at 55 percent - with Kiambu at 65 percent. If I put Ruto votes in Kiambu to Zero - Ruto drops to 52 percent. In short Kiambu total votes is expected to be 3% (total cast votes of about 900k with turnout dropping 10 percent to 70 percent - I think Uhuru got 1.2M with high turneout)
it's NOT worthy putting a DPORK there - when Ruto is already dealing with
bigger monster of two tribes propaganda.So if Uhuru works really hard - he will get 35 percent - this already factored in MOAS - we have even given him 35 percent of Kiambu, Muranga, all kikuyu counties plus Meru - and still Ruto is at 55 nationally.
Even if a miracle was to happen - and Uhuru really worked hard in central kenya - outside in diaspora and mt kenya east he will see fire - Ruto will only lose if gets 25 percent and Raila get 75 percent -- hapo Ruto will be at 49 percent - and Raila will win with help of Kalonzo
For me the best running mate is
1) Gachagua - he can go head to head with Uhuru but he comes from Nyeri.
2) Alice Wahome - ticks many boxes - she is a fighter - she is a woman - and if Raila picks Muranga - chance of Muranga (who feel their chance is now) - voting for him are high.
Only problem with Alice - Mt kenya might see that Ruto has picked a weak woman so he can dominate them.
Gachagua is seen as corrupt - that double down on corruption tag that Ruto already is grappling with.
But politics concede nothing - and Gachagua really want it - so he will likely get it.
Next few weeks is critical - because Ruto will not want to engage Uhuru in direct confrontation - he will need fearless Mt kenya leaders like Gachagua and Wahome to go head to head with Uhuru - and whoever emerges as Uhuru biggest attack dog WINS.
Uhuru has 30% influence in Kiambu , forget the rest of Mt Kenya counties. Ruto needs to focus his energy in Kiambu as it has substantial number of Voters(e.g. whole of Coast Province) . If need be let him get his running mate from Kiambu.