Dude GEMA are at best 28 percent of the vote - out there is 72 percent; Moi won twice in 1992 and 1997 with barely any vote from big tribes including GEMA (zero kikuyu vote), just a few merus/embus in northern dry areas, zero luo vote, etc etc.
A smart candidate should be able to weave 50 percent.
Raila has come close to this in 3 elections - 2007 he was 43-45, 2013 43-45 and 2017 45 percent
Pretty close - just 5 percent - or maybe a million votes! He could have won it if he worked harder and smarter - if he kept friends - build on the last coalitions.
But everytime instead of consolidating these gains; he starts a fresh - his first business is to cannibalize his party and coalition - to make new enemies from guys who assisted him - looking for new magic and friends. Instead of keep the 45 percent - and meticolously working on 5 percent - surely how hard is it add 5 percent in 5yrs? A few Key voter winners - maybe 2 small tribe kingpins - spend billions on them - voila - home dry.
Now as we approach 2022 - with six months to election - he is trying to amend political parties act - to anchor Azimio. Ruto folks have put 78 hurdles - until Mbadi had to bite an MP in frustration
- after jumping those 78 hurdles - the bill still has to go senate - for public participation of 3 weeks - then Murkomen and company will enact 78 hurdles - Orengo will bite Cheriuyot in frustration - then if it passes - court will put in abeyance. By march or april - it will be null and void - because old political parties envisage 3 months coalition - and it will have left a bad taste in the mouth of kenyans - because they will see BBIsque attempt to rail road a election related law.
What kind of unpreparedness is this? This man has had 30yrs if not 60yrs to plan for election.
BBI the same - wasted 4yrs collecting views - instead of getting to work with referendum as early as 2018.
Raila and his supporters I have told them to get their notebook out and watch Ruto win PORK in his maiden run.
PORK haitangi michezo. No room for errors. No room for people not ready to throw billions. No room for cowards. No room for lazybones. Unless you come from big tribe...like GEMA...for a Moi to have won 92 and 97..it was NOT A JOKE.
Moi incredible victory was built almost on the back on little small tribes...against rejection by all big tribes, international community, collapsed economy under heavy sanctions and even jesus
Ruto understudied Moi - and he took very many vital lessons.
First lesson - have BILLIONS - I mean literally build a war chest of money in your bedroom. Just dig your bedroom - and bury as much cash as you possible - you will need to oil so many people. Giving out 20M per day - as you approach election is part of the game - gather as much money as you can get - otherwise nobody loves you without money.
Lesson no 2 - have topnotch intelligence - know everything your opponent is planning - what he ate for lunch - who he called - counter intelligence is key - political intrigues is the game - pretend to be nice humble christian - float like butterfly - but stink like a bee - when you get a little window - go for the kill. You can only be ahead by knowing your enemy inside out. Reconnaissance is key. This is a very old Kalenjin tactic - Kalenjin being a raiding community - studied their targets sometimes for even 3 months - until they knew everything - the attack unlike Maasai one was by small raiding party - sometimes 10 men - so it had to be swift and well planned. The intelligence would monitor their targets for months - mostly hidding in trees - at night - daytime - until they knew everything - because the targets also had elaborate security, many kept cows in deep gorges with heavy fencing - and under watch. By the time the first nduru from victim is raised - you need to be 10 to 20kilometres away - because they will attempt to rescue the cows and cows dont run as fast - the same applies to politics - intelligence is everything.
Lesson no 3 - work hard - campaign hard - Moi by 70s had gone all over kenya - by 90s - he literally knew people by their village names.
RV, in 1997 Kiambu Muranga Nyandarua and Nairobi didnt come out to vote and in Rift Valley there was voter supression.
Those counties used to look at Kibaki as a weakling. They named him General Kiguoya.
Even in 2003 substantial number of GEMA voted for Uhuru. They wete united in 2007 and from there hence forth have been an item.
Once Raila dissapears from the picture GEMA will be divided again.
2007 Weve discussed here many times. Tell me the ciunties Raila won I will tell you the counties Kibaki won.
I repeat to win Kenyan Presidecy you have to divide Mt Kenyans
There is a reason in 2002 Moi picked Uhuru apart from safeguarding wealth. Moi knows what happened in 92 and 97.
Topic: My Dear Nyanza Friends No amount of Wishfull thinking Will Make Raila Win (Read 1447 times)