But these are tribal nations? How would Tigray defeat look like? Ethiopia gov wins - rout out TDF - install their governor to run Tigray region. How is that not a foreign occupation? This is what Abbiy did last year - but now even getting one Tigray to be installed as puppet will be difficult due to genocide....so Abbiy will find hard to colonize it.
Ethiopia is federal state. So this war btw states or nations.
Yes for Tigray the fight for Ethiopia is probably lost. I think they were ambitious to think they can walk back to Adis and lord over Ethiopians. The rejection has almost been total..and it will almost be impossible to rule over Ethiopians who hate them.
Now they need pursue secession. Now they will become Lesotho landlocked. That will work - they just build an airforce.
For now they should think strategically to declare Independence, Try to get US/UN support, and get a few countries recognizing their independence.
They have to do a land grab either to red sea or sudan. There are tigrayans in Eritrea...but they probably hate Tigrayans in Ethiopia.
So for now their best hope is to go for Sudan border.....annex territory towards Sudan.
I wouldn't compare it to a foreign occupation. Especially not by a power that can simply disentangle when they get tired. Ethiopians don't have that luxury to just stop. It's a bit like stopping to go after a snake you know is in your house because it has moved into a far corner. So you have two equally motivated foes. When Tigray fought against the Derg, they were fighting a foe that was universally hated in the country, so they didn't do it alone.