Useless theories.
Now listen careful...I hate repeating this uncomfortable debate - with gruesome details.
It's all about Kalenjin - warriors and their readiness to fight what they perceive as an injustice.
If Raila is rigged - Luos will protest as they do - throw stones - mostly in Kondele and Kibera. We saw in 2013, 92, 97 and lately in 2017.
Raila even swore himself as people president.
If Luhya is rigged out - they probably wont even care.
Now think Kalenjin. What will kalenjin do when they perceive an injustice. What will united Kalenjin people of 7m people with 2m warriors do.Simple they will riot. How will they riot? They will not throw stones. They will go to war.
Ruto will decide how war pans out - by how he plays - if he plays hard like I know he does - it will be long months in hell for kenya - and we may have to get federal constitution in kenya.
Who is their enemy - well anybody opposed to Ruto.
Once they start - the enemies will also retaliate - and kenya will be engufled in war. Even in 2007 the epicenter was mostly in RV.
That is a given.
Now second thing in this election is a possibility of CLASS WAR especially in Mt Kenya. This Hustler Nation is class war.
I see poor in Mt Kenya - if Kalenjin do not attack kikuyus indiscriminately - attacking their own rich families.
This what is already happening - there is class divide.
Now your theories about sijui corruption and land grabs...those are details.
The reality is Kalenjin feel betrayed by Uhuru (not GEMA) already - they are already angry but have to smile until 9th August. If RUto wins they will be very happy. If Ruto wins and is rigged out. They will rage.
My biggest fear is security responses - if they go hard - Kalenjin in security sector will break up - and then we get a civil war.
If Museveni also think Raila is such a threat to him - he is already very paranoid - he will likely sponsor a Kalenjin war - and all kalenjin need are few Ak47s - because they are already half -trained in war and have war infrastructure.
The terrain in RV is also very favourable for long querrilla warfare - with forests and hills - georges - and a united Kalenjin would definitely shutdown half the country.
In terms of IDPS - we are talking possibly 2 million.
Ingredient of 2007 PEV very different. First it means Kenyans generally agree Raila won 2007 against Kibaki. If 2022 get stolen one assume it would be stolen by same people who stole 2013/2017 without PEV. Ruto major beneficiary of both thefts, so what changed?Second, PEV had never happened before in that scale so everyone completely unprepared. Things different this time.
Of all people Pundit you know underlying issues in PEV. Land, power balance, corruption, marginalization and others. Bandia high priest want power but still glorify landgrabs, marginalization (Kondele Boys for example). He also make corruption addictive new religion and pretend to complain about corrupt election. If high priest of corruption he should celebrate and invite corrupt election. Be consistent for once.