Oromia is gone. TDF made similar deal with Eritrean rebels when they were kicking out Mengistu. If Eritrean rebels assited them - they would let them become independent. They did.
TDF agreement with OLF is simple - we win - we hold referendum in Oromia - you go seperate. TDF as much as they want to rule again knows it going to be hard without public backing - Oromos and Amharas do not want Tigrays lording over them again. So its likely their first business would be to hold referendum in Tigray and Oromia - and split the country. Tigrays can punish the Amharas by adding over Adis to Oromos.
So it's likely Ethiopia will splinter into seperate countries or a loose federation.
So we will have Oromia, Ogaden, Ethiopia, Tigrayian, Afar and even Gambela as independent countries...joining the mess in Somalia, Somaliland, Puntland, Jubbaland, Djibutti.
If not - Tigrays will probably go for united ethiopia - go all the way to asmara and kick out Eritreans - and enact Rwanda like dictatorship
Yes, I do not Tigray will ever allow Addis Abba to call shots for them. If Tigray votes to leave Ethiopia everyone else will start to do so. So far TDF has split Amhara region. Oromia region will be making a decision soon. Seems one Faction in Oromia wants out, if the second one agrees and they tactically support TDF it is over Abiy. If TDF just secures one faction support then it goes with the decision to leave the current set up and split the country
This could be a serious civil war that end up with millions dead. The drought season just started. In a few months bodies will be dropping right and left if they are not already
The fact that Eritrea is being used by Abiy just hardens Tigray resolve to see this through or destroy the who current set up
