Tigray taking over Ethiopia

[RV Pundit]

Njuri kwani you killed all tigrey men already..at six million people they can raise a million soldiers.In six months they trained 100k.Secondly it's in Egypt and Sudan interest to find an endless civil war to stop the damming of Nile.The US already seem against Abiy as he has run to China.Tigray will get arms .They have huge reserve of men to join their army..key difference is efficiency from training..and that is probably why they are retreating.They are going to enlist and  many tigray men who are going to be fighting to the death because this an existential threat to them.AS I TOLD TIGRAYAN WITHDREW WITHOUT ANY MAJOR LOSSES

[Njuri Ncheke]

Confusion galore....Pundit ??Njuri ???

Military expert from the great Mountain Warriors.

We have two camps -
1) ENDF+Amhara and Afara regional forces+militia+pro-gov rebels.
2) TDF plus OLF and other secessionist forces all over Ethiopia.

I believe Tigray/OLF main objective is to force Adis gov either
1) To negotiate for secession - referendum and secession of Tigrays. If Abiy is willing to do that - Tigrays will cut their losses.
2) To take over Adis and then do a referendum.
3) Compromise is for Abiy to forget centralizing power and to decentralize power to federal regions - and make them almost independent. For Ethiopia to become United Republic of Ethiopia - where say Tigray is like Zanzibar and Tanzania..united only in name otherwise Zanzibar run it's own affairs.


So just sitting around in Tigrays or edges is not going to make Abiy negotiate.

For now - they will defend their territories - because they are now back up in mountains ( Terrain is important in war).

They will rebuild their forces - Ethiopia and Amhara+Afar will similarly prepare.

Once they are ready - there will be clash as Tigray forces will push forward.

Do they push forward towards Adis Ababa or do they push forward towards the Amhara region.

If Oromo forces are strong - pushing for Adis Ababa is easy - because of the alliance.

If not - they cannot head to Afar - because it's flat terrain and also Eritreas can easily play there.

So for me - if I was Gen Tsakdan - I would head for Amhara regional HQ and topple their gov - beat the Amhara regional forces -  especially if OLF can push towards Amhara. Then push for Adis from the west side.

I dont think they will repeat the same quick run for Adis (especially with massive anti-tigray sentiments)...the last civil war lasted 16yrs - so expected for a long nasty war.

Your long post is null and void simply because you don't explain where and when Tigray will source for new fighters,officers and new military hardware to launch an offensive before Abiy does, Sorry pundit but you sound like in elementary school  on the other side Abiy has endless resources of the same.
Actually main risk i see for Abiy is religion,if Tigray can stir up a religious war as in Muslims(Turkey,UAE drones) are killing Christian s then maybe they would gain some support.

Sorry the admins need to adjust the settings this new tools are a total mess my quote was as below of course pundit lacks the intelligence to post such
 

Your long post is null and void simply because you don't explain where and when Tigray will source for new fighters,officers and new military hardware to launch an offensive before Abiy does, Sorry pundit but you sound like in elementary school  on the other side Abiy has endless resources of the same.
Actually main risk i see for Abiy is religion,if Tigray can stir up a religious war as in Muslims(Turkey,UAE drones) are killing Christian s then maybe they would gain some support.

[KenyanPlato]

Abiy
Has,declared victory and returned back Addis where he has called neighboring countries to brief them. Seems this going to be a long civil war. I do not think Tigray has the muscle to  defeat govt and its allies. One thing is for sure is that Ethiopia is weakened and will never be the same again. Abiy dream of centralized power is gone. If he tries that again the regional forces can take Arms and kick endf out.

[RV Pundit]

Abiy
Has,declared victory and returned back Addis where he has called neighboring countries to brief them. Seems this going to be a long civil war. I do not think Tigray has the muscle to  defeat govt and its allies. One thing is for sure is that Ethiopia is weakened and will never be the same again. Abiy dream of centralized power is gone. If he tries that again the regional forces can take Arms and kick endf out.

Does that mean he now consider tigray independent.. because the objective last year was to make them bow to him.He need to negotiate for Zanzibar like union with Tigrayan... respect the constitution of Ethiopia that allows any federal gov to secede  and organize a referendum.The same need to happen to other region..it has to be a union of states like USa and Tanzania

[Njuri Ncheke]

Crowns who dont grasp military issues. War is not like politics where you draw a MOASS. Kupigia mbuzi guitar I quit.

[RV Pundit]

Crowns who dont grasp military issues. War is not like politics where you draw a MOASS. Kupigia mbuzi guitar I quit.

Politics and war are twins..not even cousin your mountain crown coward.War is fought to achieve a political objective

[Njuri Ncheke]

Crowns who dont grasp military issues. War is not like politics where you draw a MOASS. Kupigia mbuzi guitar I quit.

Politics and war are twins..not even cousin your mountain crown coward.War is fought to achieve a political objective

No sooner will a camel pass through a Needle's eye than Pundit will post any military sense.

[gout]

If this is true then means the communication and coordination from Tigray to the frontline is totally broken.

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/rest-of-africa/ethiopia-pm-abiy-defends-going-to-frontline-3637652

[RV Pundit]

Kwani radio uses electricity. Gen Tsakdan and TPLF fought derg by innovating - building their own communication systems. Now with all the satelite phones and solar chargers..it easy. You just need 1000 sat phones...and you can coordinate your troops...if you dont want to build two way radio communication.

If this is true then means the communication and coordination from Tigray to the frontline is totally broken.

https://www.theeastafrican.co.ke/tea/rest-of-africa/ethiopia-pm-abiy-defends-going-to-frontline-3637652

[gout]

From his interview with The Elephant he has been running a modern military which requires power. Effective command and military command will require power or serious generators  to have hands on the foot soldiers unless you operate in small bands like Al Shaitan or Niger Delta militias.

https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2021/07/09/tigray-crisis-a-conversation-with-general-tsadkan-gebretensae-tigray-defense-force-central-command/

[RV Pundit]

I see it more as punishing Tigray people by throwing them into darkness...otherwise military wise...KDF in Somalia do not need electricity to fight...and if they need..they can always buy solar or generators...probably for the commander. Otherwise setting up two way radio system is easy. Abiy already bombed and shut down all mobile communication....internet...anything...

From his interview with The Elephant he has been running a modern military which requires power. Effective command and military command will require power or serious generators  to have hands on the foot soldiers unless you operate in small bands like Al Shaitan or Niger Delta militias.

https://www.theelephant.info/op-eds/2021/07/09/tigray-crisis-a-conversation-with-general-tsadkan-gebretensae-tigray-defense-force-central-command/

[Njuri Ncheke]

Needing electricity now that bogus.
Anyways Abiy has called all East African leaders and told them that he has"vanquished the demonic forces of the tigray and all business is back to normal" needless to say now the EAC leaders look into him with awe, possibly arrogant Abiy wants to cultivate himself to emperor

[RV Pundit]

He can end this war by allowing TDF to run Tigray. He just need push TDF out of Amhara land. Then they can come de-facto independent state.

His victory lap is therefore strange...unless he already negotiated to let TDF run their corner.

TDF pull out it's turning out the airforce did not attack them - as they pulled out of many cities in long flanks - and there was barely any fighting.

So maybe there is handshake that is ongoing.

Needing electricity now that bogus.
Anyways Abiy has called all East African leaders and told them that he has"vanquished the demonic forces of the tigray and all business is back to normal" needless to say now the EAC leaders look into him with awe, possibly arrogant Abiy wants to cultivate himself to emperor

[RV Pundit]

Tigray forces takes Lalibella and Gashena. Look like Njuri mountain warriors (real) are going to teach Abbiy some more lesson in the mountains first before they head back to Adis.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/dec/12/tigray-rebels-retake-ethiopian-heritage-town-of-lalibela

[RV Pundit]

When I said this - the vitrol

[RV Pundit]

Baby Abiy back to battlefield

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has returned to the frontline and announced more victories against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF).https://t.co/m0DulhsdM1 pic.twitter.com/R4d8hHsAiM

— Nation Africa (@NationAfrica) December 13, 2021

[Njuri Ncheke]

Appears that the second round has begun for mekelle. I don't quite understand what's Abiy strategy is but of course drones will be main feature. As stated before tigray lost alot of fighters in going for addis,they dont have the numbers or equipment any longer so my guess is Abiy has decided to strike them before they can replenish and equip there ranks this will be a very ferocious battle through the mountains of Tigray.

[RV Pundit]

You miraa customer again is lying to you. The last few days the power has shifted back to TDF. Turn out the Chinese and Turkish drones have 200Km limit. Therefore the tactical retreat from TDF now make sense and unless baby Abiy move with his drones and their turkish pilots deep inside Ethiopia - he is going to be beaten...

Tigray forces seem to be headed for Amhara regional HQ - the Bar Dar - like I predicted - they seem to have decided against going to Adis Ababa - but going for Amhara HQ first as the drones cannot reach there.

If Abiy is a fool enough to go to Mekelle - he will be trapped and finished - before he get to woldeya.

Appears that the second round has begun for mekelle. I don't quite understand what's Abiy strategy is but of course drones will be main feature. As stated before tigray lost alot of fighters in going for addis,they dont have the numbers or equipment any longer so my guess is Abiy has decided to strike them before they can replenish and equip there ranks this will be a very ferocious battle through the mountains of Tigray.

[Njuri Ncheke]

US Wont allow for the full destruction of TPLF rather they will keep them alive to destabilize the HOA and Ethiopia whenever they feel like. But TPLF days in Ethiopia are gone.

[RV Pundit]

US and TPLF are not friends - unless you  mean Tigray are Jews .

If Abiy does a clean job in Tigray and take a clean shot on TPLF avoiding civilian causalities; nobody will give a damn about Tigray.

The problem is Abbiy and Ethiopians want to commit genocide against Tigray - and few people will allow that.

Abiy has to professionally fight TPLF - reduce civilian causalities - avoid mass graves - allow UN food aid to flow - allow medicine to flow - and engage TPL fighters.

If he does that - and beat them - that is clean war that US and EU will have no problem with - combatants versus combatants.

Ethiopia gov already enjoy disproportionate advantage in everything - troops, money, ability to procure weapons, air force - it has no excuse to fight like bunch of rebels

US Wont allow for the full destruction of TPLF rather they will keep them alive to destabilize the HOA and Ethiopia whenever they feel like. But TPLF days in Ethiopia are gone.