RV your wishes -Ruto Reaches Out To Kalonzo Seeks Deal...

[Nowayhaha]

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https://standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001427539/ruto-reaches-out-to-kalonzo-seeks-deal

[Nowayhaha]

Meanwhile Kalonzo negotiates with Raila behind the back.

[RV Pundit]

Raila need Kalonzo to make his run viable. Ruto needs Kalonzo to finish off Raila completely before the game even begin.
Both sides will pick Mt Kenya running mate.
So Kalonzo probably has similar offers.
Where will Kalonzo go - if he is getting pressured from deep state - he could agree to raila deal but how does he present it to Ukambani.
How does he sell no 3 slot - after two unsuccesfully no 2 slot - that demotion will lead to revolt.
That is why Ruto is going ahead - and inciting kambas from the bottom.
Top pressure versus bottom-ground pressure.
Kalonzo likely to take Ruto offers - if Ruto continues to working on Ukambani ground.

[Dear Mami]

Why would Raila do something as stupid as picking a no. 2 Mt. Kenya? I expect the NASA formula to repeat plus a Mt. Kenya and Matiangi to be in the lineup but not in the No. 2 slot. Kalonzo will be no. 2. Raila has nothing to gain by picking a Mt. Kenya no. 2. It's Ruto who can't afford to put another kabila there, but Raila would be foolish to do such a thing. Pundit, is this your genuine analysis or just what you want Raila to (hope he will) do?

[RV Pundit]

Yes the sensible thing would have been to consolidate NASA gains - 46 percent - you just need 4 percent doable. And this like 2013 - the incumbent is not running - so rigging pressure is less.

But we are talking Raila with Sisyphian curse here.

In 2007 - he was rigged out - but still scored 44 percent.  Going into 2013 - as PM - with half gov - all he needed was to consolidate the gains. The most important const for him was to keep Kalenjin smilling and happy - especially Ruto. He did the opposite - instead of securing for Ruto one of DPM - he gave him mere minister - and went Ruto bitterly complained - he decided to crush Ruto - including taking him to ICC - then Mau - end of story --

As we entered 2012 - he was again rebuilding from the scratch months to election. Imagine if he had kept Ruto - he would have only need Wetangula Bukusu to flip - and he would be finishing his two terms now.

2017 he did very well - he improved from 43 to 46 by bringing on board MaDVD+Weta - I cannot fault him for that. It was going to be hard to beat a sitting president - unlike it was lame Mwai Kibaki.

Now 2022 - naturally,logically, and as you would expected the maths was simple - keep NASA intact - and look for 4 percent.

But Raila was determined to kill both Jubilee and NASA - it doesnt make sense.

Now NASA is dead - and Raila is catch 22 - he wants GEMA support - and that can only come if he pick DPORK and do 50-50 with them. Yet GEMA ground is not sold on Raila.

Anyway if I was advice Raila - join OKA - become one of the principals - upstage them - then merge OKA with Jubilee - and indeed give Kalonzo DPORK again.

But reality is ODM is scattered. NASA has imploded. Jubilee too. The only gain Raila seem to be making is in Gusii with Matiangi new influence as a powerful guy. Elsewhere Raila has hemorrhaged support.

Well he has definitely gained a few Jubilee spoils - that depend on Uhuru gov patronage - but the ground is a little different thing.

Why would Raila do something as stupid as picking a no. 2 Mt. Kenya? I expect the NASA formula to repeat plus a Mt. Kenya and Matiangi to be in the lineup but not in the No. 2 slot. Kalonzo will be no. 2. Raila has nothing to gain by picking a Mt. Kenya no. 2. It's Ruto who can't afford to put another kabila there, but Raila would be foolish to do such a thing. Pundit, is this your genuine analysis or just what you want Raila to (hope he will) do?