Candid Ndii on Bottom up and Ruto

[Kadudu]

Am not an economist but shocked at the pure ignorance Pundit displays here. High interest rates have choked the Kenyan economy. Citing poor farmers in remote areas is a big joke. What is their contribution to the economy?

Policy changes like interest rate or low inflation have huge impact in developed world...it has almost no impact in Kenya. Nobody cares even if inflation is 30 percent.

What! 

I have to take you back to class, you slept through economics lessons.

[RV Pundit]

Kenya economy is small - even if we did zero interest rate - it wont magically grow.
Like you allude what contribution of poor farmers in remote areas to kenya economy - almost nothing.
And there in lies our economic problem.
We have about 3m people in formal sector....let assume each is supporting 4-5 people - we are talking 15m max of kenyans in formal sector.
Then 30m are in informal juakali, poor farmers, herders and such
Maybe half of 30m are doing okayish
About 15m - are totally at the bottom - contributing nothing.
Raising or reducing interest will not affect the bottom in such a case. They are under radar. The trickle down will take forever to get to them in a way to change their fortunes.

Hence gov has to deliberate go to the villages, find your poor grandparents, tilling their half an acre land, living off grid, and rarely making any purchase - and literally lift her up.

That is BOTTOM UP.Low interest is trickle down.

How do we lift poor rural farmers? How do we lift poor urban hawker? How do we lift livestock herder in Turkana?

It quite simple for poor rural farmers - all they need is fertilizers+quality seeds+pesticides+basic husbandry - they start doubling or trippling their yield - they start to buy few cows - from selling surplus food - they start to consume better and more - they become part of the formal economy.

The herder is also simple - pasture plus water plus pesticides plus vet -

The urban hawker is also simple - stop criminalizing them - give them support to have good business structures - allow them to trade - give them goods in credit - and soon urban hawker - will own a shop - then shop will soon become a mini-market - and who knows - maybe supermarket.

Am not an economist but shocked at the pure ignorance Pundit displays here. High interest rates have choked the Kenyan economy. Citing poor farmers in remote areas is a big joke. What is their contribution to the economy?

[Kadudu]

You always tend to simplify matters. Since when were hawkers criminilised in Kenya? What are the chances of one hawker making it to one day own a supermarket? One in a million?
Hawkers cannot have their way in urban areas and do what they want. It is a question of how they can be organised to sell their wares in an orderly manner. Otherwise a city or town will not function.

Sometimes you sound like Sonko. I think your problem is you never lived to see a functioning city like Nairobi. By the time you landed in the city, people from shags like you had taken over the running of Nairobi.

The urban hawker is also simple - stop criminalizing them - give them support to have good business structures - allow them to trade - give them goods in credit - and soon urban hawker - will own a shop - then shop will soon become a mini-market - and who knows - maybe supermarket.

[RV Pundit]

Kadudu, I think you left Nairobi when it was organized. Hawkers in kenya are brutalized, chased and kicked out - of the city - like they are selling drugs. This only happen in Nairobi. I have been to few african and european countries.

If you go to Uganda - hawkers hawk - orderly - they have uniforms.

Just like we copied matatu order from Uganda - we need to copy how Museveni also treat the poor.

When it come to urban poor - gov need to work with hawkers and informal traders - to make sure they are able to sell in some streets or alleys or even road - as long as they are organized - do not invade walkways - this requires matatu like organization - where hawkers have saccos with uniforms - and self regulate.

Gov can also enforce minimum hygiene and aesthetic standards.

The same is true in Kigali Rwanda...you see their Boda Boda are very organized. We can do the same in kenya - and assist them.

In short I see gov job as being threefold - with taxes collected.
1) Assist the poor - bottom up.
2) Provide basic infrastructure including security for everyone.
3) Regulate the private sector to prevent exploitation of the poor and middle class.

Me as RV Pundit - I expect Ruto to assit me in #2 - mostly - I want him to build me more paved roads, provide me with piped water, sewage network - the rest I will do for myself.

Gov should not bother with middle class and private sector beyond providing basic infra+regulating them.

It should focus on the POOR. It should be a mix of welfare (for those too old, orphan, disabled) to work - give them Raila 6k-- and empowerment for those willing to work but private sector is not willing to play because they are too poor to be profitable (organize them and give them money through saccos as LOANS - revolving fund like HELB).

We should avoid creating welfare state by dolling out money to able bodied men who should be working for themselves. Raila 6k therefore is pure nonsense....we should only give money like we do to old, disabled, orphaned kids, and those facing natural disasters like drought ravaged turkana.

When kenya become developed like German or US - we can give POOR money. For now we cannot afford to give them money - they are too many poor people.

You always tend to simplify matters. Since when were hawkers criminilised in Kenya? What are the chances of one hawker making it to one day own a supermarket? One in a million?
Hawkers cannot have their way in urban areas and do what they want. It is a question of how they can be organised to sell their wares in an orderly manner. Otherwise a city or town will not function.

Sometimes you sound like Sonko. I think your problem is you never lived to see a functioning city like Nairobi. By the time you landed in the city, people from shags like you had taken over the running of Nairobi.