Candid Ndii on Bottom up and Ruto

[RV Pundit]

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[Kadudu]

I listened to the whole interview and to my surprise Ndii only talks of the symptons but offers no remedies.
Why is it that he even avoids the biggest challenge that we have in Kenya of corruption? Will the thieves in his camp all over sudden stop stealing?

[RV Pundit]

He says ODM has been trying to copy-paste and bastardize his bottom up plan. He should patent it So it's not going to be unveiled until Ruto 2022 Manifesto Launch date.

I listened to the whole interview and to my surprise Ndii only talks of the symptons but offers no remedies.
Why is it that he even avoids the biggest challenge that we have in Kenya of corruption? Will the thieves in his camp all over sudden stop stealing?

[vooke]

I listened to the whole interview and to my surprise Ndii only talks of the symptons but offers no remedies.
Why is it that he even avoids the biggest challenge that we have in Kenya of corruption? Will the thieves in his camp all over sudden stop stealing?

j

His solution is amnesty for all past corruption

[Kadudu]

Will this include all the chicken thieves still in jail or onl those who carried billions in gunias out of the banks like the NS loot?

His solution is amnesty for all past corruption

[KenyanPlato]

Ndii is full of shit. He has emotional intelligence of a cabbage. The thugs in uda will be in an all out war within 2 years of them being in power. This will be war on who is allowed to loot what. Ruto is a Trump but a cunning one. Kenya is so fucked. Kenya died when that fool called kibaki trashed mou. Then when he was held into account thru elections he instigated an electoral coup. Now Kenya is in full throttle towards becoming a failed nation.

Kipsigis will be trying to edge Nandis out. Tugens will be trying to get an inside route. Akina gathoni muchomba and ichungwa will be seeing kalenjins feasting while the get crumbs. There is no hope for kenya. The country has failed and every tribe should just make their own nation and self govern

[RV Pundit]

There Ruto I know - having studied him for many years - there can never be chaos in his gov. Ruto runs a very very tigh ship. Not even a whiff of complain. You can check how he run his ministries - and Jubilee 1st term.

Ruto you will be able to steal but after working your arse off - anything else you will be fired.  In Ruto gov prepare to have meeting very early in morning like six and very late in the evening - or the whole day.

Walevi ndio watakuwa na shida. Then wazembe next.

Ndii is full of shit. He has emotional intelligence of a cabbage. The thugs in uda will be in an all out war within 2 years of them being in power. This will be war on who is allowed to loot what. Ruto is a Trump but a cunning one. Kenya is so fucked. Kenya died when that fool called kibaki trashed mou. Then when he was held into account thru elections he instigated an electoral coup. Now Kenya is in full throttle towards becoming a failed nation.

Kipsigis will be trying to edge Nandis out. Tugens will be trying to get an inside route. Akina gathoni muchomba and ichungwa will be seeing kalenjins feasting while the get crumbs. There is no hope for kenya. The country has failed and every tribe should just make their own nation and self govern

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Ndii is full of shit. He has emotional intelligence of a cabbage. The thugs in uda will be in an all out war within 2 years of them being in power. This will be war on who is allowed to loot what. Ruto is a Trump but a cunning one. Kenya is so fucked. Kenya died when that fool called kibaki trashed mou. Then when he was held into account thru elections he instigated an electoral coup. Now Kenya is in full throttle towards becoming a failed nation.

Kipsigis will be trying to edge Nandis out. Tugens will be trying to get an inside route. Akina gathoni muchomba and ichungwa will be seeing kalenjins feasting while the get crumbs. There is no hope for kenya. The country has failed and every tribe should just make their own nation and self govern

You've bought into the tangatanga lies, lelax elections are a year away.

[gout]

The second part of the interview is point on. Reallocation of funds from the mega infrastructure to micro productive but stifled  enterprises and the majority hustlers can easily achieve so much.

The fertilizer and inputs subsidy solves productivity among farmers and lowers cost of food - beats inflation. Farmers can start saving and invest up in agroprocessing. A litre of yoghurt is retailing at Kshs. 200+ as farmers get Kshs 30 per litre of milk. Githunguri, Mukurweini are doing it - we need more as was before Brookside mop up of local dairies only to go for even cheaper milk in Uganda. In the cyclic system way of things even cost of livestock feeds drops.

With no big money baskets, corruption will fizzle as the creditors squeeze us for repayments. With a vibrant hustler nation, formalization of even ten million hustlers will double or even triple tax collections for counties and KRA. Nairobi, Nakuru, Kwale, Kiambu and say Machakos can easily finance 75% of their expenditure.


The people who keep talking of solutions are dubious bunch. You provide a way out, they jump with the defeatist it is impossible or throw in another problem.

[RV Pundit]

- Good Agriculture - need very minimal intervention - and can get us biggest return.
- It takes 10B one off - to provide fertilizers - and it becomes a revolving fund
- I would focus - also on permanent crops - planting fruits, coffee, trees, palm trees.

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

- Good Agriculture - need very minimal intervention - and can get us biggest return.
- It takes 10B one off - to provide fertilizers - and it becomes a revolving fund
- I would focus - also on permanent crops - planting fruits, coffee, trees, palm trees.

You and Ndii are pulling in two different directions, you don't believe in hustlenomics 

Me and you know that. You are more of a big infrastructure, big industry, command and control, state led economy person.

His take is anathema to your philosophy.

[RV Pundit]

I am first bottom up guy...I can provide your evidence since early...I also believe in basic infrastructure investment..as a bottom up.Ndii agrees too.. anybody who think infrastructure is not important is a joker..

[RV Pundit]

HK the guy we argue is kibaki trickle down guy..fix macroeconomics and everything will trickle down.He want mwiraria magic...reduce cash ratio..don't borrow..so much..then everything will be fine.I personally favour direct intervention on infrastructure and focus on the bread m butters issues at bottom..if it's judiciary..I don't care about mega graft..but how a poor in little crimes justice systems fairs..for me the 50 Bob that police receive daily if you scale to 40k police officers is 2b shs from poor Kenyan.. assuming every police officer steal minimum of 50bob from poor citizen..we know they do more than thar

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

I am first bottom up guy...I can provide your evidence since early...I also believe in basic infrastructure investment..as a bottom up.Ndii agrees too.. anybody who think infrastructure is not important is a joker..

Hahaha 

I told you. You are not bottoms up guy, you are top down guy.

I'm bottom up. Ndii doesn't espouse infrastructure led growth he has been writing against it for 5 years boss.

[RV Pundit]

Watch the interview again. I dont think you even understand what bottom up is. The top down is what you and HK has been advocating for - fiscal and monetary policies - that trickle down to all and sundry - reduce taxes, reduce borrowing, make policies that would trickle down to everyone. This is kibakiconomics or US's Reaganism or British Thatcherism. These are trump kind of policies you parrot daily.

Hahaha 

I told you. You are not bottoms up guy, you are top down guy.

I'm bottom up. Ndii doesn't espouse infrastructure led growth he has been writing against it for 5 years boss.

[RV Pundit]

This is what I wrote about in 2017 - as the reason for voting Jubilee. Ndii in that interview admits their NASA manifesto was focused on governance.

Now it him who has moved back to bottom issues that affect everyone - not wait for the magic of reduce inflation, lower taxes, reduce gov borrowing, all the fiscal and monetary conservative policies, that are suppose to MAGICALLY transform a country.

Bottom up in governance is not worry about grand corruption - it's to focus on someone at bottom who is dealing with Kanjo or police corruption.

UNDERSTANDS WHAT BOTTOM UP REALLY IS and YOU WILL REALIZE YOU DO NOT EVEN KNOW.

https://nipate.net/index.php?topic=4579.msg32943#msg32943

I am excited because I know Jubilee will win and they are serious about this Manifesto. They would still win without it. But I think they want to go down in history as the most trans-formative regime in Kenya. Sitting before those ICC judges really shocked the hell out of them and they realized they needed to live for something bigger.

I like their business minded approach, their zen-like discipline, their execution is near perfect - that is how to deliver SGR 2yrs ahead of schedule. Unlike you or Kadame I am not big on justice/peace/consitutionalism - I am big on kagame type of reforms - I don't care about historical injustice - but I care if everyone can get be given a titledeed to borrow loan with or sell - I don't care so much about big fish corruption (mega deals) - I care about small time corruption where everyone has to pay 100bob to get gov services - I think Jubilee has focused on those - eliminating red-tape, digitizing the whole shit out of it - and without even doing anything about graft - it disappears and gok collect more revenue now. I don't care about 10B SGR loan (maybe 1B or more of it's is facilitation fee to Wanjigis)..I care that every kenyan will now travel at 700shs to Mombasa on half the time and the same benefits on containners... What is 1Busd compared to a multiplier like that?

In short I care about reforms that really affect me and you. I think Jubilee have the brains. Uhuru is damn brilliant. Ruto is a genius. I think they understand what need to be fixed. You can talk all day about corruption...but if you reduce the amount of time it take for container to get malaba from 18 days to 5 days - using simple measures like forcing banks to operate 24-7 - those are reforms that work.

Obviously you care about democracy or new constitution or historical injustices or truth & reconciliation - frankly I don't give a damn - give every kenyan a tarmac road few meters from their home - give every kenyan electricity - give every kenya rail transport that work - give every kenyan a title deed - give every kenyan water - those are the stuff that matters.

China never had democracy and they grew out of poverty. The same is true for many countries that focused on the the really important things..the bread & butter. The job of GoK is to render gov services..NOT to wrestle with complicated emotional stuff nobody can ever solve...like terrorism or historical injustice or reclaim mau complex...give us more well paid police..give us more security cameras...give us more magistrates and courts...those are stuff that work.

I wish political competition can shift to Jubiliesque kind of issue..and we leave Raila hangovers to the past...and we can start debating how we can say move our road network from 15% tarmac to something like 90% tarmac.... let people compete on how we cancoverage of sewage & sanitation..let talk the numbers there and how much you want to improve them...talk about water, internet/broabband, banking (access is now dealt with - nearly everyone has a bank account now...now it's question cheap credit for everyone)

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Punda, can you even try to lift the bottom without fiscal breathing space? What I mean is right now we can't even pay counties, government employees, we are deeply indebted, IMF is our lifeline due to reckless borrowing. Kibakinomics ensures you have fiscal leeway to try various social programs Ndii is proposing, if you borrow Ruto style willy nilly then forget it. Gema understand that, they are business minded, I don't know about goat herders though, Ndii has being calling for fiscal tightening for the last 7 years.

You are trying to shoehorn yourself into economic platform you don't believe in. It is phony. 

[RV Pundit]

This has nothing to do with tribes - being Luo or Kikuyu or Kalenjin - is nothing. This an intellectual debate.

In my view, HK and you, represent kibakonomics, it says manage macro-economics better, and the benefits will trickle down. This Reaganism/Trumphism.

I believe there is merit in kibakincomics if the economy is FORMALIZED and DEVELOPED like the US. I believe that good model in developed world. Policy changes like interest rate or low inflation have huge impact in developed world...it has almost no impact in Kenya. Nobody cares even if inflation is 30 percent. There is broken link btw the top and the bottom. The result south africa - Inequality and Crime...as bottom is neglected while the rich grow richer (low taxes - mean more profit for them)

In a country like ours - which is informal mostly black market - reducing gov borrowing to zero - doesnt mean banks will lend to poor illeterate farmers. They will likely lend to big business, employed and salaried. They will go for the farmers in formal sector - like tea - they will not touch maize or sorghum farmers. The 70% who live informally will never feel any such policy intervention.

We have had this debate with HK - for nearly 10yrs. You're new convert to Triumphism.

My view, is more labour/democratic party, I favour direct and deliberate intervention at the bottom. Rather waiting for commercial banks to lend money to informal sector, I favour gov state banks, lending money to the bottom - who are credit unworthy.

I favour gov - going down and rolling their sleeves, organize them poor farmers or hawkers into saccos, try to formalize them like Matatu sector, and then lend directly.

Of course I am also BIG in Infrastructure. I believe basic infrastructure is greatest equizaler and leverage. I believe everyone deserve a tarmac road, piped water, electricity and sewage. I also believe gov should go into mass social housing - otherwise we will have sprawling slums.

And these are not new ideas...you can ask HK if you havent been paying attention.

I believe when it comes to public sector - we need to be socialist or even communist.

I believe when it come to private sector - we need to be totally capitalist/free market/open market.

I think it mistake to run public sector like you're running a private business in river road. Public sector or gov job is non-profit by nature.

In short - gov should essentially be socialist (Help the POOR) +infrastructure (For everyone)+regulator of the private sector running on cut-throat capitalism (-to avoid market dysfunctions/monopolism/abuses/too much blood on the street)

This model likes of China are deploying - and are doing incredible stuff.

This is also model that Nordic Countries uses - and they are richer, happier, name it than US or any other country

Sociliasm (pro-poor) run public sector (in Kenya this merely 20 percent of GPD - given tax to gdp) -  then 80 percent of private sector+individual (run it on capitalism - let hardwork pays).

Raila is communist/socialism - who will not make distinction btw public and private - he will likely to tell people not pay rent or bla de bla. He is going to be anti-business/wealth - although he is now changed to be a big broker.

Kibaki was lazy guy like uhuru - who think you just low tax rate, low inflation, low interest, low borrowing -  pick golf club - and go to muthaiga - and drink beer as you watch economic miracles.

Ruto is the guy who will roll his sleeves like Moi - and really impact the bottom - building schools, hospitals, roads, helping poor farmers, rural communnities. Big mistake Moi did was to mess macro-economics.

But if we keep good macro-economics+ roll our sleeves Museveni or Kagame or Meles styles -  we can see real changes happening.

Punda, can you even try to lift the bottom without fiscal breathing space? What I mean is right now we can't even pay counties, government employees, we are deeply indebted, IMF is our lifeline due to reckless borrowing. Kibakinomics ensures you have fiscal leeway to try various social programs Ndii is proposing, if you borrow Ruto style willy nilly then forget it. Gema understand that, they are business minded, I don't know about goat herders though, Ndii has being calling for fiscal tightening for the last 7 years.

You are trying to shoehorn yourself into economic platform you don't believe in. It is phony. 

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

Policy changes like interest rate or low inflation have huge impact in developed world...it has almost no impact in Kenya. Nobody cares even if inflation is 30 percent.

What! 

I have to take you back to class, you slept through economics lessons.

[RV Pundit]

If you're a poor peasant or herder growing your own food for consumptions and rarely purchasing anything beyond sugar or small items; how does inflation affect you? This is true for almost 10m kenyans. Go to many villages in kenya - a small shop is enough sustain it - and only thing they buy is maybe sugar+soap+cooking oil(if any).

You cannot apply fiscal and monetary policies to fix informal economy. This is the failure of trickle down economy.

The poor farmer or herder need direct intervention to improve his most important activity - growing own food for consumption - so he or she can improve productivity enough to have surplus to sell.

That direct intervention is bottom up. To wait for the magic of low interest, low inflation, low taxes to reach your grandmother in nyalguga is trickle down. It takes forever to get there if it eventually does.

Look at kenya now - all macro-economics look good except for debt - base interest rate is 7 percent - inflation has been single digit forever - and yet not many kenyans are escaping poverty.

Now if you intervene directly from the bottom - get the poor farmer or herder - organize them into groups - give them subsidized fertilizers and pesticides - teach them basic agronomics - soon they will have enough surplus to sell - these groups will become saccos - they will soon have enough savings to borrow - and they will become part of the formal economy - and escape poverty.

What! 

I have to take you back to class, you slept through economics lessons.