So I also participated in ODM rigging - this was MOASS 2007 - and I predicted such turnout. I generally predicted 10 percent increase in turnout from historical or 2005 average in most areas....with Luo and Kikuyu stronghold doing 15 percent more...because the candidate was theirs.
And this was what exactly played out except in Central - where turnout was off the charts (rigged)MOAS 2007 - Sept Edition.
NYANZA PROV Reg Votes 05 % Turn Out(05) Exp Turn Out
Mbita 31172 71.60% 83.600%
Bobasi 64861 40.90% 55.900%
Gwassi 28494 65.10% 80.100%
Kuria 49555 52.10% 57.100%
Nyatike 42245 89.10% 96.100%Bomachoge 57997 39.50% 44.500%
Rongo 58942 77.50% 89.500%
Bonchari 34278 45.10% 50.100%
Nyaribari Masaba 46239 41.20% 46.200%
Nyaribari Chache 51460 39.00% 44.000%
Kitutu Chache 67900 42.00% 47.000%
Kitutu Masaba 65854 41.50% 46.500%
West Mugirango 55295 43.20% 48.200%
South Mugirango 47162 39.70% 44.700%
Rarieda 43718 58.10% 73.100%
Uriri 34187 80.80% 95.800%Migori 52589 74.30% 89.300%Ugenya 70162 54.10% 69.100%
Bondo 47928 59.30% 74.300%
Kisumu Town East 44248 53.50% 68.500%
Kisumu Town West 71477 45.70% 60.700%
Kisumu Rural 43012 58.30% 73.300%
Nyando 44712 68.00% 83.000%
Gem 51920 52.70% 67.700%
Nyakach 45704 67.30% 82.300%
Kasipul Kabondo 64355 72.30% 87.300%Karachuonyo 52606 78.40% 93.400%Rangwe 60453 66.60% 81.600%
Ndhiwa 51301 74.60% 89.600%Muhoroni 48009 59.50% 74.500%
Alego 66481 59.10% 74.100%
1594316 70.035%
Thats it case closed.