They are in fix.
They know supporting Ruto or Raila means they are out of business for 10yrs.
Supporting Raila - means they might lose their people and bargaining power - as Ukambani and Luhyas are fatigued supporting the perennial losers.
Both are also under siege from politicians who want to ride their presidential candidature.
So for now there options are
1) Support Raila or Ruto - for DPORK - Kalonzo has realistic chance there. MaDVD has no realistic chance - in both camps. But Raila is going for all out - so he needs GEMA as DPOR
2) Run and play for second round - and the negotiate great deal - because their value will rise to the sky
3) Negotiate with Ruto - being clear front runner - for 3rd leg - Chief Minister or Matiangi type executive order - and 1/3 of cabinet - and some money.
So option 1 is out of the table - neither Ruto or Raila are offering DPORK to them. Both are targeting GEMA.
It's option 3 on the table for Ruto - take it now - or risk it for a second round - big risk big reward - Raila option 2.
If they choose option 2 - and Ruto wins in 1st round - then it's came over for 10yrs - with total loss -- Kalonzo is done - but maDVD can still be running in 2032.
So the sensible option if they were not under siege is to go to Ruto and cut a 1/3 deal now - ask for some at least a billion Kshs downpayment - and forget about PORK for next 10yrs.
If ask me btw Kalonzo and MaDVD who is likely to go for 1/3. I think Kalonzo...Muthama can easily deliver him. MaDVD - is very gullible - and is being taken around Mt kenya
But we know already Uhuru and his close allies are talking to RUto - and will soon join hustler nation - leaving Raila, Kalonzo and MaDVD on the dry.
So analyzing all that - I think Kalonzo is one likely to run to Ruto faster than MaDVD.
You need to learn to ignore the noise - and focus on the moves...the noise from Uhuru and camp is now pure noise - they have lost and are negotiating with Ruto..individually...The noise from Kalonzo - is pure noise - he is probably also talking to Ruto.
Wetangula has already signed his deal - I think he is going for National Assembly Speaker or Senate Speaker or Majority Leader - with few ministers - and is looking at Ford-K continuing in Bungoma and Tranzoia.
So my prediction - Uhuru people, Kalonzo, Wetangula will likely join UDA. MaDVD will likely play alone. Raila will be played by Uhuru to the last day.
Remember in 2007 Kalonzo had been pampered by the so called opinion polls that he was the top contender now he is well know as Mr 8%. Secondly he was being sponsored by Muthamas and Kibaki people. He met Kibaki several times prior to election and they had a deal , Its well known he wanted to join Kibaki but was asked to become the thord horse so as not to antagonize Luhyas who had Vp post through Awori. Meaning he ran knowing VP post was waiting for him.
Mudavadi by 2018 was showing signs of joining Ruto untill BBI became a referendumn objective. Other thing he was the sole Front runner leader In Rutos daughter wedding.
Its pointless to Run as Mudavadi noted if you are not going to benefit from the running.
One more update my Bukusu friends pointed to me that they are tired of Raila. These are the same friends who told me in 2013 that Bukusu were tired of Mt Kenya and for sure they voted for Raila in 2013. So Im watching carefully.
Topic: Nowayaha - please prepare 1K usd - you will send to a charity of my choice (Read 2210 times)