Charles Hornsby understand kenya politics like I do - Low IQ need to read him

[RV Pundit]

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He has very many interesting blogs

http://www.charleshornsby.com/kenya-blog

1) Ruto
A united Raila/Kikuyu establishment/Musalia Mudavadi/Kalonzo Musyoka/Gideon Moi alliance would beat Ruto decisively, but that is near-impossible. Both Musyoka and Mudavadi have backed Raila before, without success. And Raila seems determined on one more try, though he is weaker going into this election season than in any of the last three contests. A three- or four-way split with Raila, Mudavadi and Musyoka all standing would guarantee a victory for Ruto, who has a solid 30% of the nationwide vote today, and would sweep up many undecided voters. This is assuming that the elections were free and fair, which cannot be taken for granted. And if Ruto were rigged out (hard to do, but not impossible), I believe parts of the Rift Valley would burn.

2)
As long as Raila is determined to stand for the fifth time, Ruto's chances are good, since it is extremely unlikely that Musyoka and Mudavadi would both back Raila again. Ruto's core support base is now bigger than Raila's and a Raila presidency is anathema in central Kenya and will force the Kikuyu en masse into Ruto's arms, re-establishing under new leadership the Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance which won victory in 2013 and 2017 (see first figure).

It is also too late to build up a fresh, compromise candidate with a nationwide support base. Cabinet secretary Fred Matiang'i appeared an option a couple of years ago, but while effective in government he remains a technocrat not a politician, and that idea seems to have faded. It would be hard to "pump up" Matiang'i or an alternative candidate now, unless all the other players immediately backed them against Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

He has very nice graphs as usual

Raila versus Ruto

[RV Pundit]

MaDVD represent the best chance to beat Ruto

As a Ruto-beater, Mudavadi is the best compromise candidate, with a reasonable ethnic base and a broader nationwide brand than Musyoka. A presidentially plausible figure without too many skeletons in the closet, he could be backed by Odinga, Kenyatta and Musyoka (see second figure). Indeed, it is often forgotten that Uhuru backed Mudavadi for the presidency for a few short days in December 2012, before denouncing the deal he himself had signed because "the devil made me do it".

[RV Pundit]

This Ruto election to lose

Although not loved, Ruto's harder-edged grassroots focused narrative and clear, decisive leadership is appealing to many Kenyans and unless his opponents can "pull a rabbit from a hat" by reactivating and then delivering constitutional change via the stalled BBI (which would roll the dice once more in unpredictable ways), Ruto's chances look good.

[Nowayhaha]

So what different does he say which we dont ?

[RV Pundit]

He speaks with data - you speak FWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

So what different does he say which we dont ?

[RV Pundit]

Kalenjin really do well const  wise..next election might go mano to mano with kikuyus. 50 kikuyu mps versus 45 kalenjin. Kalenjin can add one in Narok and Tranzoia..possibly one of Nakuru East...kikuyus need to stick to UDA to retain Nairobi otherwise if they split ODM will win more seats.

It was striking how well the Kalenjin community did in terms of constituency representation in their homelands, and in winning seats in the multi-ethnic rift (and even one seat in Nairobi). The Oromo-speaking communities can clearly be seen to have been allocated more constituencies than their population would strictly require, because of their vast size and district historical identities. The Kikuyu community are almost exactly "right" (17.3% of elected MPs with 17.2% of the 2009 population), while the Luhya, Luo, Kamba, Gusii and Meru all ended up slightly "under-represented" in the current lower house amongst elected constituency MP

[Kadudu]

Unlike you he does not mention Kenya burning but RV.
Which Kikuyu will die for Ruto?

This is assuming that the elections were free and fair, which cannot be taken for granted. And if Ruto were rigged out (hard to do, but not impossible), I believe parts of the Rift Valley would burn.

[Nowayhaha]

My friend , its not a competition. Just as many people Charles gets majority right but gets some wrong. Same thing with you . Drawing graphs doesnt necessarily mean anything. Anyone can do that.
You need to stop thinking you are genious of some sort. No you arent , You just an ordinary Kenyan like the rest .

He speaks with data - you speak FWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH

So what different does he say which we dont ?

[RV Pundit]

[RV Pundit]

RV ndio kenya my friend; RV borders all kenya provinces except North Eastern and all kenya neighborhoods except somalia.
RV ikisimama shuka tu.

Unlike you he does not mention Kenya burning but RV.
Which Kikuyu will die for Ruto?

[RV Pundit]

Like Robina say - you're a coward who never stick your neck out to make prediction. You just come for postmortem.

My friend , its not a competition. Just as many people Charles gets majority right but gets some wrong. Same thing with you . Drawing graphs doesnt necessarily mean anything. Anyone can do that.
You need to stop thinking you are genious of some sort. No you arent , You just an ordinary Kenyan like the rest .

[RV Pundit]

GEMA made up just 59 of the 140mps of Jubilee - about 42 percent - but even less if you add Jubilee alied Mps (170mps)


 My records suggest that Kikuyu, Embu, Mbeere, Meru and Tharaka MPs make up 59 of the 140 elected Jubilee MPs (42%), Kalenjin MPs (26%), with all the other communities in the country the remaining 32%. Amongst predominantly opposition-supporting communities, Jubilee had elected Luhya, Kamba, Mijikenda and Gusii MPs but no Luo, Basuba, Taita or Teso.

[Nowayhaha]

My friend Kalenjins and Kikuyu are not competing against each other. They have a common competitor who goes by the name of Raila. This should stick in your head. Thats why the best campaigners of Ruto are from Mt Kenya. UDAs elected members from MCAs to MPs are from Mt Kenya.
You should just switch and go back and support Raila whom you supported in 2005 and 2007 and as far as from 2002 or is it from NDP days.

Kalenjin really do well const  wise..next election might go mano to mano with kikuyus. 50 kikuyu mps versus 45 kalenjin. Kalenjin can add one in Narok and Tranzoia..possibly one of Nakuru East...kikuyus need to stick to UDA to retain Nairobi otherwise if they split ODM will win more seats.

It was striking how well the Kalenjin community did in terms of constituency representation in their homelands, and in winning seats in the multi-ethnic rift (and even one seat in Nairobi). The Oromo-speaking communities can clearly be seen to have been allocated more constituencies than their population would strictly require, because of their vast size and district historical identities. The Kikuyu community are almost exactly "right" (17.3% of elected MPs with 17.2% of the 2009 population), while the Luhya, Luo, Kamba, Gusii and Meru all ended up slightly "under-represented" in the current lower house amongst elected constituency MP

[RV Pundit]

Okay we are in one team - but as EQUALS

I joined ODM late 2007. I could not stand Luos in 2003-2005 - there were shouting Sirikali ni Yetu - until LDP crew were fired after the referendum.

I was in DP from 1992 till 2004. Btw 2004-2007 - like most kalenjin - we were backing Kalonzo.

I became tribal in 2004 - In the 90s...I had bought opposition KOOL AID. I thought we would have progressive non-tribal - I really campaigned HARD for NARC. I had lunch with Raila in 2002 Dec. I spent months campaigning for NARC. I was at one point roughed in my local bar. KANU guys were really desperate...but after drinking one two...I would abuse them.

When MOi came after handing over power to my home area...first sunday...I abused him...we were three guys...Moi looked like a rained cat. His tiny security picked the two guys..and later dropped them after beating them...I was luckly I was in the middle.

Moi was just cursing - say Kenya had followed a strange winds - warning kalejin that we would disperse like castor oil in different directions - I remember shouting Kwera huko! Hakuna kitu raia anaweza tuambia.


And Kibaki totally disappointed us when it turned into Kikiyu enterprise.

Kibaki remain the BIGGEST FAILURE...somehow my father held faith...he just could not trust Raila. My mother and all my siblings jumped ship from DP to Raila in 2007.

I remember my mother in 2007 - telling my father - this time round you wont force me to vote KIBAKI . My father asked why - my mother said KASS FM had finished it -  Kass fm was real drive behind Raila - Joshua Sang and those US diaspora guys really sold Raila - and anti-kikuyu narrative.

Arap Sang voice use to boom..i was suprised when ICC unveiled him to realize he was barely 4 feet

And my father being PNU guy use to turn off Arap Sang - and change the radio to anything but Kass. My father was kibaki diehard and kikuyu-phile - and he really hated Raila and had low opinion of luos. He was almost a closet kikuyu - but he was really strong-headed - standing against KANU in 90s and ODM in 2007s was not EASY in kalejin land.

UDA is now reaching that level...standing against UDA now is NOT EASY. People see you as either mad person or a community betrayer of worse kind.

My friend Kalenjins and Kikuyu are not competing against each other. They have a common competitor who goes by the name of Raila. This should stick in your head. Thats why the best campaigners of Ruto are from Mt Kenya. UDAs elected members from MCAs to MPs are from Mt Kenya.
You should just switch and go back and support Raila whom you supported in 2005 and 2007 and as far as from 2002 or is it from NDP days.

[Nowayhaha]

Ive been singing the following song but also you are trying to avoid saying this is the big fish in the pond. Ruto is popular because he is seen as the only formidable force against Raila.

Ruto's core support base is now bigger than Raila's and a Raila presidency is anathema in central Kenya and will force the Kikuyu en masse into Ruto's arms, re-establishing under new leadership the Kikuyu-Kalenjin alliance which won victory in 2013 and 2017 

Like Robina say - you're a coward who never stick your neck out to make prediction. You just come for postmortem.

My friend , its not a competition. Just as many people Charles gets majority right but gets some wrong. Same thing with you . Drawing graphs doesnt necessarily mean anything. Anyone can do that.
You need to stop thinking you are genious of some sort. No you arent , You just an ordinary Kenyan like the rest .