Kenya's dynastic politicsMoi and his band of young turks
Daniel arap Moi's retirement plans
Dec 13th 2001
NAIROBI
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RIOTS in Nairobi this month, in which at least 17 people were killed, illustrate the way in which Daniel arap Moi has held on to power for 23 years by manipulating ethnic and political loyalties. The trouble began last month when the president suggested to the Luo residents of a big slum district that perhaps they need not pay their Nubian landlords since the land belonged to the government.
On December 3rd, Raila Odinga, a Luo leader who was recently brought into government, repeated Mr Moi's words. Within hours, rival Luo and Nubian gangs were hacking at their neighbours with machetes, and looting and burning their shanties. Hundreds of destitute people are still camped around Nairobi, afraid to return to the wreckage.Whether Mr Moi genuinely meant to offer the Luo his patronage in reward for Mr Odinga's new loyalty, or to stir up trouble as a way of keeping Mr Odinga in check, is still unclear.
The president is a master at wrongfooting his triballydivided followers and opponents alike.
But now Mr Moi faces retirement, the toughest test of all. If he is to safeguard his name and fortune after he has to step down at next year's election, he must ensure that his unpopular Kenya African National Union (KANU) party is returned to power. To do so, he almost certainly needs the votes of Mr Odinga's National Development Party (NDP). But he is not, as yet, inclined to say who among the rivals he will nominate as his successor.
Mr Saitoti's mother's tribe, the populous Kikuyu, mostly oppose Mr Moi, whom they accuse of neglecting central Kenya in favour of his native Rift Valley. So it is not clear what block of votes Mr Saitoti's presidential candidacy would carry. Yet, by keeping his intentions under wraps, Mr Moi ensures that Mr Saitoti and his supporters, and quite a few other members of parliament too, hold back from organising a rival alliance.
Meanwhile, Mr Odinga has attached himself to Mr Saitoti's main rival, Musalia Mudavadi, who is minister of transport and a member of the Luhya tribe. Both men are the sons of former ministers. But, significantly in a country where politics are dynastic as well as tribal, Oginga Odinga crossed over to the opposition from KANU, while Moses Mudavadi remained loyal to Mr Moi.
Around their two sons has gathered a multi-tribal team of young hopefuls.
One of them is Uhuru Kenyatta, a newly appointed minister and a Kikuyu, whose father, Jomo Kenyatta, was founder and first president of independent Kenya. Others are William Ruto, an influential assistant minister,