Ruto has finally cracked Nairobi

[RV Pundit]

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600 aspirants - is excellent.

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-08-18-no-losers-uda-aspirants-who-lose-primaries-to-be-considered-for-nominations/

[Nefertiti]

Cracked what exactly? UDA cannot see Jubilee performance anywhere - esp with Gema split. Here Ruto is so desperate he is promising UDA primary losers nominations to parliament. He seems scared of Kuria and Kiunjuri.

No losers! UDA aspirants who lose primaries to be considered for nominations
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-08-18-no-losers-uda-aspirants-who-lose-primaries-to-be-considered-for-nominations/

If Handshake zones properly - UDA stands little chance especially in non-RVGema.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto really scared of NARC 2 - seems obsessed with it like BBI despite being watermelon

Ruto warns against 2022 alliances, calls them tribal outfits
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/amp/politics/article/2001421067/ruto-warns-against-2022-alliances-calls-them-tribal-outfits

What the bloke can't explain - is why noone including his former soulmate Uhuru wants anything to do with his "national party". How can he form a new party every 3 years and call it national? This new animal with 1MP is not even UDM level - already there is infighting.

[RV Pundit]

Gema split is imaginary. The Mashinani is working hard to bring them all to UDA. 600 aspirants in Nairobi shows UDA has got traction. Jubilee is dead. Today out 170mps it had - they managed to assemble 18 mps.Na bado. Ruto has say wait for novemeber.

Ruto is looking for 50 percent of Nairobi - or 47 percent like Uhuru.The only real competition is ODM.

But Ruto hustler thing has likely hood of uniting Nairobi poor like Sonko did. Mama Mboga and such - are urban poor. Raila is all over the map with rural sijui

Nairobi is tricky because most middle class do not vote; at least do not vote in party primaries;

Cracked what exactly? UDA cannot see Jubilee performance anywhere - esp with Gema split. Here Ruto is so desperate he is promising UDA primary losers nominations to parliament. He seems scared of Kuria and Kiunjuri.

No losers! UDA aspirants who lose primaries to be considered for nominations
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-08-18-no-losers-uda-aspirants-who-lose-primaries-to-be-considered-for-nominations/

If Handshake zones properly - UDA stands little chance especially in non-RVGema.

[RV Pundit]

Why would Ruto talk coalitions one year to election. Coalition talks will start in April. Unless you're bringing figures that closes the deal. Hii ya OKA and Raila - how will they even agree - and this early. Uhuru is either a fool or playing a fool.

Another BBI designed to fail; look like post-BBI- uhuru has found a way to fool NASA some more.

And you must be very naive to imagine Ruto is not talking to people - he is just keeping it under wraps - because he needs to sell UDA and his message.

Ruto really scared of NARC 2 - seems obsessed with it like BBI despite being watermelon

Ruto warns against 2022 alliances, calls them tribal outfits
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/amp/politics/article/2001421067/ruto-warns-against-2022-alliances-calls-them-tribal-outfits

What the bloke can't explain - is why noone including his former soulmate Uhuru wants anything to do with his "national party". How can he form a new party every 3 years and call it national? This new animal with 1MP is not even UDM level - already there is infighting.

[Nefertiti]

We long dissected Sonko "slum appeal" myth: he RIGGED Jubilee primaries against PK - then Aug17 was pure tribal math to beat Kidero.

We know Ruto bottom-up lie has only worked in Kikuyu youth. Barely so and thanks to dynasty retiring with no heir.  That's why UDA was clobbered by FordK, Wiper, ODM in Kabuchai, Gusii, Machaa.

Please stop spinning and do the math:-

Kikuyu are 30% of Nairobi - BEFORE you split them into factions. If Kavirondo + Kamba unite what gives Ruto the advantage? There is no "Sonko appeal" - which you want to equate with bottom-up  - Kamba tribalists voted with Gema for Kamba boy Sonko. They rejected UDA boy en masse in Machakos.

Muthama is still reeling from the dog-beating.

Gema split is imaginary. The Mashinani is working hard to bring them all to UDA. 600 aspirants in Nairobi shows UDA has got traction. Jubilee is dead. Today out 170mps it had - they managed to assemble 18 mps.Na bado. Ruto has say wait for novemeber.

Ruto is looking for 50 percent of Nairobi - or 47 percent like Uhuru.The only real competition is ODM.

But Ruto hustler thing has likely hood of uniting Nairobi poor like Sonko did. Mama Mboga and such - are urban poor. Raila is all over the map with rural sijui

Nairobi is tricky because most middle class do not vote; at least do not vote in party primaries;

[Nefertiti]

And how is gathering 600 aspirants an achievement? They could be 200 or 5000 - same difference. There are no noteworthy candidates I see mentioned there.

[RV Pundit]

When did you debunk that. When I talk about appeal - I am talking about the edge. Ruto is looking for the edge. Sonko if he wasnt sonko would not have gotten GEMA votes - PK would have gone rogue with them.

Sonko won highest as a senator, and as governor; more than Uhuru or Raila;  tribal maths was what Jubilee got; roughly 45-47; Shebesh for example lost to Passaris. Sakaja won.

When it comes to poor appeal - I am talking about the EDGEs  - so if you were to be at 45 - you score 50!

Did Ruto loses in OKA zone when they went tribal - of course not - Ruto was playing second or third - those are edge for Ruto - he has solid base of Jubilee - if they are all laser focused Ruto will not win - but will still get more than if he didnt show up - when they present 20 candidates - UDA will win seats.

For Ruto the most important percentages NOW are not big numbers; they are the SMALL Numbers; the  single PLUS one vote after 50 percent is the most important.

Uhuru won with 8,000 votes plus 50 percent.

We long dissected Sonko "slum appeal" myth: he RIGGED Jubilee primaries against PK - then Aug17 was pure tribal math to beat Kidero.

We know Ruto bottom-up lie has only worked in Kikuyu youth. Barely so and thanks to dynasty retiring with no heir.  That's why UDA was clobbered by FordK, Wiper, ODM in Kabuchai, Gusii, Machaa.

Please stop spinning and do the math:-

Kikuyu are 30% of Nairobi - BEFORE you split them into factions. If Kavirondo + Kamba unite what gives Ruto the advantage? There is no "Sonko appeal" - which you want to equate with bottom-up  - Kamba tribalists voted with Gema for Kamba boy Sonko. They rejected UDA boy en masse in Machakos.

Muthama is still reeling from the dog-beating.

Gema split is imaginary. The Mashinani is working hard to bring them all to UDA. 600 aspirants in Nairobi shows UDA has got traction. Jubilee is dead. Today out 170mps it had - they managed to assemble 18 mps.Na bado. Ruto has say wait for novemeber.

Ruto is looking for 50 percent of Nairobi - or 47 percent like Uhuru.The only real competition is ODM.

But Ruto hustler thing has likely hood of uniting Nairobi poor like Sonko did. Mama Mboga and such - are urban poor. Raila is all over the map with rural sijui

Nairobi is tricky because most middle class do not vote; at least do not vote in party primaries;

[Nefertiti]

I have not had time to comb through your MOAS - but I suspect they are full of wishful thinking and overrating Ruto. Gema loss is the worst but most swing regions UDA cannot reach Jubilee 2017 level. Except in Kalenjin and Coast.

You mostly underrate Uhuru ability to undermine Ruto and prop Raila-Handshake. Yet Uhuru's effectiveness is so readily apparent. Uhuru Kenyatta is PRESIDENT - think about that; - and no, Ruto did not put him there.

[RV Pundit]

What is stopping you from looking at it -
Mutahi Ngunyi did Twitter poll of 45,000
Uhuru reportedly did NIS one
If you remove all GEMA votes; Ruto is still strong at 30 percent base.
Uhuru is retiring; Unless you have amended the Katiba.
Uhuru has basically been abandoned by nearly all his people.

It appears to me - only desperate NASA - do not know Uhuru is outgoing pork - and will soon go mteja on them.

He is now just putting on a show - right now the last of his MPs - are about to jump ship.

Do you really need to call the press - to make a deal - or do you make a deal then bring the press?

I have not had time to comb through your MOAS - but I suspect they are full of wishful thinking and overrating Ruto. Gema loss is the worst but most swing regions UDA cannot reach Jubilee 2017 level. Except in Kalenjin and Coast.

You mostly underrate Uhuru ability to undermine Ruto and prop Raila-Handshake. Yet Uhuru's effectiveness is so readily apparent. Uhuru Kenyatta is PRESIDENT - think about that; - and no, Ruto did not put him there.

[Kadudu]

 
Will only do so if am bored and have nothing else to do.

I have not had time to comb through your MOAS - but I suspect they are full of wishful thinking and overrating Ruto. Gema loss is the worst but most swing regions UDA cannot reach Jubilee 2017 level. Except in Kalenjin and Coast.

You mostly underrate Uhuru ability to undermine Ruto and prop Raila-Handshake. Yet Uhuru's effectiveness is so readily apparent. Uhuru Kenyatta is PRESIDENT - think about that; - and no, Ruto did not put him there.

[RV Pundit]

Will only do so if am bored and have nothing else to do.

I have not had time to comb through your MOAS - but I suspect they are full of wishful thinking and overrating Ruto. Gema loss is the worst but most swing regions UDA cannot reach Jubilee 2017 level. Except in Kalenjin and Coast.

You mostly underrate Uhuru ability to undermine Ruto and prop Raila-Handshake. Yet Uhuru's effectiveness is so readily apparent. Uhuru Kenyatta is PRESIDENT - think about that; - and no, Ruto did not put him there.

don't because it bad news for Raila...Ruto has unassailable lead.

[Nowayhaha]

So prove GEMA has split and I will show you 2013 how ODM also wishfully thought RV will split.

Cracked what exactly? UDA cannot see Jubilee performance anywhere - esp with Gema split. Here Ruto is so desperate he is promising UDA primary losers nominations to parliament. He seems scared of Kuria and Kiunjuri.

No losers! UDA aspirants who lose primaries to be considered for nominations
https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-08-18-no-losers-uda-aspirants-who-lose-primaries-to-be-considered-for-nominations/

If Handshake zones properly - UDA stands little chance especially in non-RVGema.

[Nowayhaha]

Coming to 2017 elections Jubilee Party had only one MP but after 2017 GE . They had outnumbered their number 2 in Parliaments by twice the number of MPs. Ribena pungusa theories and threatics .

Ruto really scared of NARC 2 - seems obsessed with it like BBI despite being watermelon

Ruto warns against 2022 alliances, calls them tribal outfits
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/amp/politics/article/2001421067/ruto-warns-against-2022-alliances-calls-them-tribal-outfits

What the bloke can't explain - is why noone including his former soulmate Uhuru wants anything to do with his "national party". How can he form a new party every 3 years and call it national? This new animal with 1MP is not even UDM level - already there is infighting.

[Nefertiti]

Uhuru cunning is a fact. His NEGATIVE EFFECT on Ruto chances is also obvious - esp killing Jubilee. He has been propping Raila for 3+ years and you still wait for him to go mteja.

You can say you DON'T KNOW his plans. Well, except the evidence of his intent is all over the news. Come on he is cajoling Mdvds to back Raila as if his legacy depends on it. When exactly is he going mteja?

With Uhuru hostility - Ruto lost big chunks of Gema and Jubilee. Now with hostile Kurias - I can optimistically max him at 50% Kikuyu (could get worse) - and DOA in OKA zones.

What is stopping you from looking at it -
Mutahi Ngunyi did Twitter poll of 45,000
Uhuru reportedly did NIS one
If you remove all GEMA votes; Ruto is still strong at 30 percent base.
Uhuru is retiring; Unless you have amended the Katiba.
Uhuru has basically been abandoned by nearly all his people.

It appears to me - only desperate NASA - do not know Uhuru is outgoing pork - and will soon go mteja on them.

He is now just putting on a show - right now the last of his MPs - are about to jump ship.

Do you really need to call the press - to make a deal - or do you make a deal then bring the press?

[Nefertiti]

Glad you have the audacity to compare Jubilee vs UDA.

JP was formed with Uhuru cooperation hence the big clout in Gema. UDA is JP & Uhuru ENEMY - hence the drop to 50% Gema.

You would never have a JP-TNA contest - today you have UDA vs JP dogfights all over.

You have Uhuru-sponsored Meru-Embu candidate fighting UDA in MKE.

I would not be surprised to discover Uhuru is behind Kuria-Kiunjuri shenanigans to wreak UDA.

Coming to 2017 elections Jubilee Party had only one MP but after 2017 GE . They had outnumbered their number 2 in Parliaments by twice the number of MPs. Ribena pungusa theories and threatics .

[Nowayhaha]

You are stretching it too hard , everyone and sundry knows Mt Kenya are with Ruto simply because of Raila Hate.
Raila joinimg hands with Raila made Uhuru public enemy number 2 after Raila in Mt Kenya.
Thirdly you could see why the remaing 8 Jubilee Mps came gun blazing yesterday after the Murathe Tuju coalition talks with ODM were initiated.
These Mps know any association with ODM and Raila in Mt Kenya is the end of thwir political careers, now a question to you when were you last physcially in Kenya ?

Glad you have the audacity to compare Jubilee vs UDA.

JP was formed with Uhuru cooperation hence the big clout in Gema. UDA is JP & Uhuru ENEMY - hence the drop to 50% Gema.

You would never have a JP-TNA contest - today you have UDA vs JP dogfights all over.

You have Uhuru-sponsored Meru-Embu candidate fighting UDA in MKE.

I would not be surprised to discover Uhuru is behind Kuria-Kiunjuri shenanigans to wreak UDA.

Coming to 2017 elections Jubilee Party had only one MP but after 2017 GE . They had outnumbered their number 2 in Parliaments by twice the number of MPs. Ribena pungusa theories and threatics .

[Nefertiti]

I don't need to be in Kenya to know anything - youtube is all over.

The Raila is hated myth :- there are many Ruto haters too. Uhuru has been easy to demonize because a) he is outgoing PORK and b) he has no annointed successor. Otherwise everyone knows Uhuru is supporting Raila and Jubilee still TIES with UDA. All those Waigurus, Wa Irias, Dr Nyoros backing Raila are not bothered  by alleged Railaphobia yet they are 1st term governors. And why are Kiraitu, Njuki, Kivutis not backing Ruto - don't they want to milk popular UDA? Instead they are backing Muturi the Uhuru poodle.

See? "Raila is feared/hated" is more spin than reality.

Strategically Uhuru has beaten Ruto in Gema. Ruto with intra-Tangatanga headache has maxed out - after 8 years of campaigns - he can't even catch a break and focus on non-Gema. He really needs to rein in Kuria & Kiunjuri - but they have him by the balls. I don't these thugs will give in unless UDA stay out of at least Kiambu & Laikipia. Akicheza they will ask for Kikuyu yote. 

The vote with Uhuru & Muturi will wind up in Raila basket. Compared to retiring dynasty your famous genius has actually underperformed.

You are stretching it too hard , everyone and sundry knows Mt Kenya are with Ruto simply because of Raila Hate.
Raila joinimg hands with Raila made Uhuru public enemy number 2 after Raila in Mt Kenya.
Thirdly you could see why the remaing 8 Jubilee Mps came gun blazing yesterday after the Murathe Tuju coalition talks with ODM were initiated.
These Mps know any association with ODM and Raila in Mt Kenya is the end of thwir political careers, now a question to you when were you last physcially in Kenya ?

[Nefertiti]

Nowayhaha so long as Kuria & Kiunjuri continue to call Ruto a foreigner - tough luck cracking that 50% ceiling. Kionis and Warugurus will not leave Jubilee for party at war. If they hold Limuru 3 and declare all foreigners are equal - I don't know how Ruto will maintain the charade that all is well in Tangatanga.

Merus, Embus will definitely be happier in local Muturi party.

[RV Pundit]

Nursey level arguments. Are you seriously going by UDA official one seat; or the 135 plus 15 apologies Ruto assembled in UDA meeting.

As we speak when Kieleweke called their meeting - only 9 members turned up

And all wanted Tuju-Murathe gone...meaning they are not happy with ODM-Jubilee merger

Those are last people to close Jubilee house - Ngunjuris and the likes.

Uhuru is selling NASA folks nothing - but they dont know.

Coz kichwa ni kama yako - birika ya maji

Glad you have the audacity to compare Jubilee vs UDA.

JP was formed with Uhuru cooperation hence the big clout in Gema. UDA is JP & Uhuru ENEMY - hence the drop to 50% Gema.

You would never have a JP-TNA contest - today you have UDA vs JP dogfights all over.

You have Uhuru-sponsored Meru-Embu candidate fighting UDA in MKE.

I would not be surprised to discover Uhuru is behind Kuria-Kiunjuri shenanigans to wreak UDA.