Trying to stay afloat from UDA tsunami in Mt Kenya

[Nefertiti]

Kenyans must be very naive or the propaganda machine is overthinking. The claim that Raila is unacceptable in Mt Kenya is hollow. What's the reason behind it? Mere name Odinga with historical baggage current generation does not identify with. Uhuru fed them that baggage in first term with Ruto in Jubilee. If there is a reason Raila should not be accepted in Mt Kenya then it should worry Ruto even more.

Jubilee pushed propaganda that "Raila is a violent man." Now look who is talking? One year is a long time and propaganda wears out. I cannot tell how this will go but it can turn very nasty against the propagandists.

If things stay as they are I see the cookie crumbling as it did in Kiambaa: Ruto solo 50 vs 50 everyone else.

If UDA vs Kuria-Kiunjuri shenanigans persist - things can go very bad for Ruto. Those youths did not decide to hate Uhuru but were incited by Kurias.

If BBI comes back - more problems for Ruto.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit's story about Merus-Embus being heavily pro-Ruto is backed by nothing solid. Wishes. There has not been a proper match there unlike West to indicate that Ruto is so popular. Unlike Kikuyu, there is no Uhuru to demonize there - Muturi is local boy backed most big Kiraitus.

Ruto weakness in MKE: no Uhuru punchbag. No Raila to demonize. No DPORK to offer with the apparent Kikuyu problems. Muturi will run circles around him.

Muturi party vs UDA. No Jubilee.

[RV Pundit]

You make it sounds like Raila is blameless? No he is not. You need to understand why Raila has contributed to this hatred in Mt kenya.  Of course some of it his inherited beef btw Jaramogi and Luos during Kenyatta era.

But let focus on Raila sins - and how he can 'repent'.

1) It starts in Langata const. In 1993-1998 when he won Langata. The first thing he did was to tell Luo slum dwellers not to pay rent to landlords. He called them slum structures owners. This I believe he has repeated severally. He also identifies himself as a socialist (communist) like his father.

Kikuyu fear that if Raila wins - Luos will refuse to pay rent. In fact every election - Kikuyus evict Luos or refuse to rent to Luos their properties.

Socialism/communism is no longer  a problem - in fact worldwide it's back in vogue - but the genuine fear from Mt kenya that Raila will incite his supporters to refuse to pay for rent and other services is REAL.

2) The fear he will incite Land clashes against Kikuyu diaspora. This he has done in Coast, Maasai and RV. As late as 2017 - he was in Kajiado quoted saying watu warudi kwao. That flipped Gusii votes. Raila once he entered KANU - realized that Moi KANU (really old KADU coalition) - was Anti-Kikuyu platform - and their biggest beef was land grab of 60-70s. He has tried to feed that monster in coast, kamatusa and such areas..so they support him.

Raila even adopted Majimbo/Fedaralism - something he and Luo intellegnisa had opposed from 1950s - through 1990s. Once inside the KADU tent - he adopted Land grievance agenda of Mijikenda, Maasai and Kalenjin - and the Majimbo.

The land grievance -majimbo-devolution is Anti-Kikuyu agenda and you do not expect to be loved by GEMA and Non-GEMA - Ruto may break the jinx with his WIN-WIN philosophy.

3) The 2007 anti-kikuyu rhetoric that led to war. Here both him and Ruto are blamed.

4) Raila has improved on quarrelsome relationship with GEMA - this time he has really become Uhuru bia.tch. Previously it was just makelele with Kibaki in NARC and later in NARA.

Ruto has almost paid his penances - by supporting Uhuru for 10yrs, kikuyus also realize they need to make peace with RV - coz there are maybe a thousand of kikuyus in Kisumu - but a million in rv.

Most importantly Raila is very reckless and cannot stay on message - propaganda wise. Ruto has manage to clean up his act with Mt kenya because he is good in propaganda and can stay on message. Raila CANNOT.

That biggest hurdle he faces in Mt Kenya. Raila is his Greastest Enemy. You can struggle to sell Raila - only for him to say something stupid - and make all your effort zero. Like Mama Mboga ni TakaTaka. Or like he said in 2007 - hatutaki Madoadoa. Or in Kajiado recently - in 2017 - inciting Maasai on land.

I remember in 2007 - Ruto use to struggle to clean up Raila gaffes.  In fact Raila should stick to written speech - and he may be able to get 20 percent of Mt kenya.

The moment he opens his mouth - he will likely say something stupid.

Kenyans must be very naive or the propaganda machine is overthinking. The claim that Raila is unacceptable in Mt Kenya is hollow. What's the reason behind it? Mere name Odinga with historical baggage current generation does not identify with. Uhuru fed them that baggage in first term with Ruto in Jubilee. If there is a reason Raila should not be accepted in Mt Kenya then it should worry Ruto even more.

Jubilee pushed propaganda that "Raila is a violent man." Now look who is talking? One year is a long time and propaganda wears out. I cannot tell how this will go but it can turn very nasty against the propagandists.

[RV Pundit]

Mp seats give you the direction; the indicator of where majority are;at best; Not the percentage;  For example if election are held in Kericho or Bomet today - UDA candidate will win - but not by 90 percent; it will likely be even 50 percent; because there are other candidates; with other issues; for example each Ward will pick their home-boy

You need an opinion poll for that. Without an opinion poll; then you have find many indicators and try to guess.

For example to know Ruto is popular - see how nearly all Kieleweke MPs have all run back to Ruto - in Kiambu out of 12 mps - I think only two are left with Uhuru. And that is KIAMBU. Uhuru homeground. The same trend is repeated. And this is with Kibicho threatening and paying some of them not to defect.

YOU DO NOT KNOW POLITICS.

We need some kind of opinion polling - but for now - we will go with ancedotal evidence.

Problem with kenya opinion polls; they do not sample tribes; and that is where MOAS come in. But in place like Central where most places are 98 percent homegenous; if you sample one area; you will know how it's going.

If things stay as they are I see the cookie crumbling as it did in Kiambaa: Ruto solo 50 vs 50 everyone else.

If UDA vs Kuria-Kiunjuri shenanigans persist - things can go very bad for Ruto. Those youths did not decide to hate Uhuru but were incited by Kurias.

If BBI comes back - more problems for Ruto.

[RV Pundit]

I depend on Njuri-njeke for Meru - but Embu - those are my inlaws. Muturi is going nowhere. He himself know it. He has already been told to fold camp and join Ruto. That is why he is reading Ruto message.

You need to understand that politics is not just driven by boardroom - the ground is everything - ASK MATIANGI - unless you reached Raila or Kalonzo or Ruto or maDVD kind of level. It not easy to get there.

In fact it only Raila who can shift Luos any direction - but rest have to explain. The first 'convincing' is to fellow leaders - Mps, governors - and name it. If you fail to get buy in - then you will struggle even more on the ground. This is Uhuru biggest problem in his games - he has failed to carry the leaders and the people. I believe it's deliberate strategy. He really doesnt want to fight Ruto.

Pundit's story about Merus-Embus being heavily pro-Ruto is backed by nothing solid. Wishes. There has not been a proper match there unlike West to indicate that Ruto is so popular. Unlike Kikuyu, there is no Uhuru to demonize there - Muturi is local boy backed most big Kiraitus.

Ruto weakness in MKE: no Uhuru punchbag. No Raila to demonize. No DPORK to offer with the apparent Kikuyu problems. Muturi will run circles around him.

Muturi party vs UDA. No Jubilee.

[GeeMail]

You make it sounds like Raila is blameless? No he is not. You need to understand why Raila has contributed to this hatred in Mt kenya.  Of course some of it his inherited beef btw Jaramogi and Luos during Kenyatta era.

But let focus on Raila sins - and how he can 'repent'.

1) It starts in Langata const. In 1993-1998 when he won Langata. The first thing he did was to tell Luo slum dwellers not to pay rent to landlords. He called them slum structures owners. This I believe he has repeated severally. He also identifies himself as a socialist (communist) like his father.

Kikuyu fear that if Raila wins - Luos will refuse to pay rent. In fact every election - Kikuyus evict Luos or refuse to rent to Luos their properties.

Socialism/communism is no longer  a problem - in fact worldwide it's back in vogue - but the genuine fear from Mt kenya that Raila will incite his supporters to refuse to pay for rent and other services is REAL.

2) The fear he will incite Land clashes against Kikuyu diaspora. This he has done in Coast, Maasai and RV. As late as 2017 - he was in Kajiado quoted saying watu warudi kwao. That flipped Gusii votes. Raila once he entered KANU - realized that Moi KANU (really old KADU coalition) - was Anti-Kikuyu platform - and their biggest beef was land grab of 60-70s. He has tried to feed that monster in coast, kamatusa and such areas..so they support him.

Raila even adopted Majimbo/Fedaralism - something he and Luo intellegnisa had opposed from 1950s - through 1990s. Once inside the KADU tent - he adopted Land grievance agenda of Mijikenda, Maasai and Kalenjin - and the Majimbo.

The land grievance -majimbo-devolution is Anti-Kikuyu agenda and you do not expect to be loved by GEMA and Non-GEMA - Ruto may break the jinx with his WIN-WIN philosophy.

3) The 2007 anti-kikuyu rhetoric that led to war. Here both him and Ruto are blamed.

4) Raila has improved on quarrelsome relationship with GEMA - this time he has really become Uhuru bia.tch. Previously it was just makelele with Kibaki in NARC and later in NARA.

Ruto has almost paid his penances - by supporting Uhuru for 10yrs, kikuyus also realize they need to make peace with RV - coz there are maybe a thousand of kikuyus in Kisumu - but a million in rv.

Most importantly Raila is very reckless and cannot stay on message - propaganda wise. Ruto has manage to clean up his act with Mt kenya because he is good in propaganda and can stay on message. Raila CANNOT.

That biggest hurdle he faces in Mt Kenya. Raila is his Greastest Enemy. You can struggle to sell Raila - only for him to say something stupid - and make all your effort zero. Like Mama Mboga ni TakaTaka. Or like he said in 2007 - hatutaki Madoadoa. Or in Kajiado recently - in 2017 - inciting Maasai on land.

I remember in 2007 - Ruto use to struggle to clean up Raila gaffes.  In fact Raila should stick to written speech - and he may be able to get 20 percent of Mt kenya.

The moment he opens his mouth - he will likely say something stupid.

Kenyans must be very naive or the propaganda machine is overthinking. The claim that Raila is unacceptable in Mt Kenya is hollow. What's the reason behind it? Mere name Odinga with historical baggage current generation does not identify with. Uhuru fed them that baggage in first term with Ruto in Jubilee. If there is a reason Raila should not be accepted in Mt Kenya then it should worry Ruto even more.

Jubilee pushed propaganda that "Raila is a violent man." Now look who is talking? One year is a long time and propaganda wears out. I cannot tell how this will go but it can turn very nasty against the propagandists.

Long inshas for nothing. Ruto description fits all that and more current. Just look again. Ati Ruto has supported Uhuru ten years. So why is Uhuru against him? I just thought you said Ruto was the govt first Jubilee term. Ruto also keeps saying they were on track for Jubilee until handshake. Can you decide?

[RV Pundit]

You can bury your head in the sand but GEMA are voting for Ruto;Not Raila. Those are facts. Ruto has successfully managed to warm his way into GEMA hearts; Raila has failed. He is hoping for a miracle from Uhuru in the last year - something Uhuru hasnt done.

Uhuru - Ruto animus I believe started when Uhuru realized using (misusing) Raila he could actually run the show alone - unlike 1st term where he had to co-run it - so he has kept pushing Ruto to the periphery of power - and Raila hasn't occupied that space - but he has been fed BBI bullshiet.

The tragedy awaiting Raila is huge. He will not only lose 2022, BBI will die, but he will be blamed for Jubilee mess while all he got is a PRADO

Long inshas for nothing. Ruto description fits all that and more current. Just look again. Ati Ruto has supported Uhuru ten years. So why is Uhuru against him? I just thought you said Ruto was the govt first Jubilee term. Ruto also keeps saying they were on track for Jubilee until handshake. Can you decide?

[GeeMail]

Pundit step back a little and think outside Ruto's ginene. You claimed Ruto became a genius to you when he called out Raila for being messed up by Kibaki at Sagana. How long was Sagana? A few hours maybe. Now Ruto has been messed up by Uhuru for five years and counting, so who should be the loser here?

You have also claimed Raila can't be voted by Gema because there is fear he will incite people into land clashes in RV. Do you listen to yourself sometimes? You're asking Gema to choose between someone who is likely to incite violence and somebody who has an ICC certificate in that business.

Then you claim someone has become Uhuru's biatch. Really?

[RV Pundit]

You keep asking the same stuff I have answered several times.

I noticed Ruto political genius way back 2001. That is when overthrew Biwott from Moi kitchen cabinet. That is when he sold Young versus Old - and with Moi pushed a political neophyte to almost PORK - if not for Kibaki Tosha. Not 2008.

Ruto understand what POWER Means. He has been in power now twice. In Moi dying regime - btw 1999-to-2002- when he edged Biwott from Kitchen cabinet, became only Ass Minister to sit in Cabinet, before eventually being appointed for 3 months to be Home Affairs Minister. Ruto was in his 30s remember.

Ruto was also in POWER in Jubilee 1.0 - when drunkard was drinking. That was obvious to everyone. Raila has NEVER BEEN IN POWER - not even as PM.

Now 2008 - Sagana - Ruto having been in power under Moi - tried very much to help Raila - Ruto provided ODM financing and led the propaganda - which Raila kept messing up by foot in the mouth gaffes.

In Sagana - Ruto told Raila he needed to get REAL MINISTRIES -  with REAL Power. This was the MINIMUM IRREDUCIBLE. Ruto drove that hard bargain until Kofi Anna gave up.

Raila negotiated directly with Kibaki and crushed in 2 hours - and came back with useless ministries - and worse did not give Ruto anything - Min of Agricutlure - for someone who had been running gov under Moi : and was defacto  home affairs minister (while he was ass minister). Ruto must have felt CRUSHED by a 50 tonne truck.

For Ruto this was total betrayal - it was a demotion - it was going back to 1998 - and he couldnt progress under a fool like Raila.

I bet that night of Sagana - Ruto called Uhuru and the plan for 2013 began. Him and Raila were DONE in SAGANA - and I said as much - and Uhuru was going to be benefeciary.

Post 2008 - Kikuyu/Kalenjin tension was very high - both parties hated each other - people said oil and water could not mix - Ruto plotted for 2022 way back in 2013. This is what Raila is doing in 2021

Uhuru and Mama Ngina had made it clear that 1) They will vote for Ruto in 2022 2) They cannot guarantee GEMA votes because of PEV. Ruto got his cheque from Mama Ngina and knew he had to work to win over GEMA.

From 2013 - Ruto knew the only way to win GEMA - was to collapse URP and TNA - into Jubilee - and create a BEHEEMOTH like KANU - and strongly couple with GEMA - plus many other things including attacking Raila daily - GEMA love that.

Ruto also knew collapsing URP - and creating Jubilee - would give Uhuru upperhand - it wont be a coalition - it wont be 50-50 - there is no coalition agreement - Ruto will move to VP and Uhuru will be PORK.

Ruto agreed - to take that gamble. In any case Uhuru could still go rogue because it was his final term - Ruto knew what is happening would likely happen.

Raila is a FOOL. That one has no strategy. His strategy is very short term. How do you run 5 times and LOSE

Why did Raila run in 1997 :  - why not back Kibaki in 1997 - and do Tosha - and become PORK in 2007 . How were Luos suppose to help - if Jaramogi had failed? Then he cries RIGGING when everyone saw Moi beating him to pulp

Ruto has never run for PORK - and will win in his first run. From when Ruto went to Japan with Moi as UON students - Ruto has METICOUSLY plan his way to his ambition of become PORK. He has progressively work his way, he has acquired all that is needed, the money, the experiences, the propaganda, the network. He has never rushed. His only mistake was ODM in 2008 - and 2002 of course - Raila undid his plan - to run kenya at 30s :. Ruto knew Uhuru kenyatta ni mlevi...Gideon moi ni fala...so he will be the ENGINE of Gov under new KANU.

Pundit step back a little and think outside Ruto's ginene. You claimed Ruto became a genius to you when he called out Raila for being messed up by Kibaki at Sagana. How long was Sagana? A few hours maybe. Now Ruto has been messed up by Uhuru for five years and counting, so who should be the loser here?

You have also claimed Raila can't be voted by Gema because there is fear he will incite people into land clashes in RV. Do you listen to yourself sometimes? You're asking Gema to choose between someone who is likely to incite violence and somebody who has an ICC certificate in that business.

Then you claim someone has become Uhuru's biatch. Really?