Kiunjuri struggling - look like he has been told to fold TSP

[RV Pundit]

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[Nefertiti]

I foresee trouble in UDA soon. Over DPORK and party leadership. Kikuyu counties will fight - Laikipia, Nyeri, Kiambu, Murang'a. Then Linturi and Kindiki will not accept to play second fiddle to Kikuyus - especially with Uhuru boy Muturi already running away with the prize. Then non-Gema - Bukusu - will demand DPORK claiming it their turn to feast.

Don't underestimate the greedy, entitled nature of Gachaguas and Kurias after braving GoK bullying for Ruto. Noone hears about Muthama - after his wife cleaned Machaa - and the Sec Gen is another Kikuyu 

Ruto has big problems - esp over-reliance on Mt Kenya.

[Nefertiti]

Ruto might have to allow free-for-all primaries to determine who gets what. Which means grassroots polls? In case Gema esp Kikuyus lose DPORK they might join Muturi. It a nightmare. I opined earlier that blaming Uhuru or Tuju or Kibicho for all Jubilee troubles is wishful and illogical. Dark forces were a convenient scapegoat: now the hyenas must settle their own affairs and there is noone to blame.

[RV Pundit]

UDA has entered Mt kenya directly. You're looking at leading or lagging indicators. Ruto will almost dictate who is DPORK. UDA will go big in Mt Kenya. That means Ruto can decide to pick anybody in UDA.

Kiunjuri seem to have to been told to fold his tissue paper and flash it down - it has had no traction. Next is moses kuria - seem he lost PDP - and is now starting another party - but coming from Gatundu South - surely he doesnt think he will replace Uhuru as DPORK.

Ruto has direct support on Mt Kenya.

Right now depending on how it play out -  I am starting to edge of  Alice Wahome instead of Kiunjuri. Kiunjuri TSP has just failed to get traction for simple reason that Kiunjuri has chicken under Uhuru threats.

Kiunjuri If he was listening to me should already have become the face of Anti-Uhuru forces; Mt Kenya hate Uhuru so much - one surest way to popularity is to hit Uhuru, get arrested, or name it.

Within Kikuyu nation - the battle is btw Muranga and Diaspora.

Within Mt kenya east - well Merus would have been biggest issues - but Mbeere man - who cannot even bring 20k votes - and is being used by Kiraitu will go nowhere.

So for now Alice Wahome starting to look like the woman unless Kiunjuri wakes up

I foresee trouble in UDA soon. Over DPORK and party leadership. Kikuyu counties will fight - Laikipia, Nyeri, Kiambu, Murang'a. Then Linturi and Kindiki will not accept to play second fiddle to Kikuyus - especially with Uhuru boy Muturi already running away with the prize. Then non-Gema - Bukusu - will demand DPORK claiming it their turn to feast.

Don't underestimate the greedy, entitled nature of Gachaguas and Kurias after braving GoK bullying for Ruto. Noone hears about Muthama - after his wife cleaned Machaa - and the Sec Gen is another Kikuyu 

Ruto has big problems - esp over-reliance on Mt Kenya.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto will pick DPORK one hour to deadline in June 10th 2022- whoever doesn't like it - would be dead anyway. Negotiations for those position will happen in 2022.  Those who dont nail it - will have two months - to August 9th to make their case - amidst the political din.

For now - UDA got traction in Kiambaa - and Ruto will play it.

If UDA goes big in Mt Kenya - then Ruto will have so much leverage. TSP has not sold as KIunjuri thought it would. Kuria is Kiambu-Gatundu. Gachagua-Kibaki still alive. Those are out. The battle really is btw Muranga (Alice Wahome) and Kiunjuri (RV diaspora) within diaspora. Nairobi kikuyus are sorted with Wanjiru set to bag that governor seat - Sonko is essentially buried - unless he takes the senate empty position. The little issue of Mt Kenya east - is nothing but intercine war btw Kiraitu and Munya - as they struggle to find a home - after realizing Uhuru is going home.

Ruto might have to allow free-for-all primaries to determine who gets what. Which means grassroots polls? In case Gema esp Kikuyus lose DPORK they might join Muturi. It a nightmare. I opined earlier that blaming Uhuru or Tuju or Kibicho for all Jubilee troubles is wishful and illogical. Dark forces were a convenient scapegoat: now the hyenas must settle their own affairs and there is noone to blame.

[Nefertiti]

Woi such hubris. RUTO HAS MT KENYA - we are back to this delusion. 

1. UDA just split 50-50 with Jubilee - a big underperformance despite being "united" so far. How would you perform if you SPLIT the pie with Kuria PEP (not PDP) - and Kiunjuri TSP?

Kuria and Kiunjuri or Gachagua are not fools - or cowards - they know they can easily sabotage Ruto and they have BIG LEVERAGE. Do you really believe Ruto would survive a fallout with these guys while fighting with Uhuru? Smh

I don't see Ruto as having a free-hand at all to "pick anybody" as DPORK in Mt Kenya. But you are welcome to dream. Haha if any of these guys mend fences with Uhuru - appear in few photo ops... Ruto has a BIG Gema problem. Hubris, hubris, hubris.

Raila hands-off strategy is much safer. Gema will sort their own mess and go for their slot.

2. Jubilee is not dead - I know you are very hopeful of this. MPs are demanding Tuju and Murathe step down to revamp it. Jubilee remains a potent threat to UDA in Mt Kenya - the Kiambaa-Muguga outcome gave them hope and expose UDA overblown noise and big image. Ruto and UDA are beatable. I have not seen any sign of a mass exodus from Jubilee to UDA - quite the opposite.

Punguza kiburi. UDA needs to attempt grassroots elections - as small experiment before the primaries. You can tell Ruto history of make & break small UDM or URP - and his Jubilee mean machine is long dead. Let see how he handles this new animal UDA. Creating hustler or bottom-up euphoria is much easier part - getting everyone to forsake their ambition and sing kumbaya is HARD. You will understand why Raila has a blank checkbook called BBI.

[Nefertiti]

In short Pundit - UDA would only "enter Mt Kenya directly" - if they beat PEP in direct match. But you saw PEP beat Jubilee 60-40 in Juja - while UDA tied 50-50 in Kiambaa. Kuria STEPPED DOWN his man to avoid splitting hustler vote. If both UDA and PEP ran it NO-BRAINER they would have LOST BAD to Jubilee guy.

Are you really serious? William Ruto is KALENJIN - he needs Kurias and Gachaguas like he needs air.

[RV Pundit]

You do not know how to read politics.
Ruto has direct support from Mt kenya people.
That is why all the people Uhuru wasted millions to buy - Kangatas, Wamuchumba, Warugurus - have all came back - after talking to mashinani.
Mt kenya I keep telling you is having CLASS REVOLUTION.
The poor in Mt kenya - who are the majority - as you can imagine DO NOT WANT TO HEAR ANYTHING else apart from Ruto.

For in Ruto - they see their class war being final fought - their issues be sorted - the disconnect btw the privellege elites who have made money the last 20yrs of Kibaki-Uhuru and the poor majority who are getting gutted by COVID is as wide as great rift valley. That is the highway RUto is passing almost unopposed.

Right now - anybody can quit hustle nation - or like Kiunjuri being in TSP - but nobody will go with it.

In mt kenya now - the worst thing is to be elitist, rich, english speaking arrogantly talking about Uhuru or Jubilee or Raila - hapo hawezi ona 2022 except in VIUSASA. You better not display any dynastic tendencies.

In short Pundit - UDA would only "enter Mt Kenya directly" - if they beat PEP in direct match. But you saw PEP beat Jubilee 60-40 in Juja - while UDA tied 50-50 in Kiambaa. Kuria STEPPED DOWN his man to avoid splitting hustler vote. If both UDA and PEP ran it NO-BRAINER they would have LOST BAD to Jubilee guy.

Are you really serious? William Ruto is KALENJIN - he needs Kurias and Gachaguas like he needs air.

[RV Pundit]

Jubilee is dead. All Jubilee Mps in western kenya are with Ruto bar Wanagwe. All Jubilee Mps in Northern Kenya - pastoralist - are with Ruto - bar Keynan. All the Jubilee Mps in KAMATUSA are with Ruto. All the Jubilee Mps in Ukambani and most in Gusii/Kuria are with Ruto.

You go to Mt Kenya - nearly all in Meru/Embu/kikuyu are backing Ruto - from Nairobi to Nakuru to Nyandarua to Laikipia to Kirinyanga to Nyeri to Muranga (50-50) to Nyeri (50-50) to Kirinyanga. I think Nakuru yote are out bar Gusii Mp. Of kiambu 11mps - I think 2 or 3 mps are still with Uhuru - Njomo/Mwathi?.  The next few defections will happen in Muranga - where likes of Sabina Chege - will shut the lights out.

It's a clean sweep

Now let see who remain in Jubilee - the last I checked they were 16 mps. Kuttuny has said he is just making some money before he bail out.

Jubilee yote is set to seamleslly transfer to UDA - leaving a few remnants - who will all bolt bar I think ODM long timers Ngunjiri/Maoka maore in due course.

Of 54 percent Uhuru got - just assume for now - Ruto has that number - because the few disgruntled dynasties in Mt kenya - will be replaced by incoming turkanas, maasai, coast - who did not like Uhuru Kenyatta.

Jubilee come 2022 will be a shell - those 16 mps remaining in Uhuru corner - most of them will be out by december - as the Uhuru taps run dry -

I think the 500M kshs released to ODM and Jubilee is where all action is focused now - once they finish that 500m in "revamping" the party - they will give Uhuru a new year present - by decamping to UDA.

Woi such hubris. RUTO HAS MT KENYA - we are back to this delusion. 

1. UDA just split 50-50 with Jubilee - a big underperformance despite being "united" so far. How would you perform if you SPLIT the pie with Kuria PEP (not PDP) - and Kiunjuri TSP?

Kuria and Kiunjuri or Gachagua are not fools - or cowards - they know they can easily sabotage Ruto and they have BIG LEVERAGE. Do you really believe Ruto would survive a fallout with these guys while fighting with Uhuru? Smh

I don't see Ruto as having a free-hand at all to "pick anybody" as DPORK in Mt Kenya. But you are welcome to dream. Haha if any of these guys mend fences with Uhuru - appear in few photo ops... Ruto has a BIG Gema problem. Hubris, hubris, hubris.

Raila hands-off strategy is much safer. Gema will sort their own mess and go for their slot.

2. Jubilee is not dead - I know you are very hopeful of this. MPs are demanding Tuju and Murathe step down to revamp it. Jubilee remains a potent threat to UDA in Mt Kenya - the Kiambaa-Muguga outcome gave them hope and expose UDA overblown noise and big image. Ruto and UDA are beatable. I have not seen any sign of a mass exodus from Jubilee to UDA - quite the opposite.

Punguza kiburi. UDA needs to attempt grassroots elections - as small experiment before the primaries. You can tell Ruto history of make & break small UDM or URP - and his Jubilee mean machine is long dead. Let see how he handles this new animal UDA. Creating hustler or bottom-up euphoria is much easier part - getting everyone to forsake their ambition and sing kumbaya is HARD. You will understand why Raila has a blank checkbook called BBI.

[Nefertiti]

How is 50-50 a "clean sweep"? In 2018 you told us Kieleweke has 10 MPs - which was brazen lies just like now. Gema was 99% UhuRuto. I see the MPs demanding Tuju must go to revamp the party. Pray BBI stay dead - otherwise that rickety Jubilee will be your worst nightmare.

Western or Gusii or Kwale - non-GEMA swings - have gone back to their tribal cocoons. Ruto in Jubilee 1 did lots of hard work there to even get few Kamba MPs - Victor Munyakas - now I don't see any Jubilee or UDA there. For example is Mvurya in Jubilee or UDA or what? How about Lusaka? How about Sonko? Sakaja? Ole Lenku or Tunai?

You need to watch Manyora video - obviously without the blinkers - and try to understand why Ruto has bigger problems than Raila.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit Jubilee utility to Raila is to first scuttle Ruto sheep - Mvuryas, Munyakas, Sakajas, etc who were presumably with Ruto. Second to break Gema. Both are going very well.

When you acknowledge the BIG HEADACHE reassembling Jubilee mean machine is - compared to reassembling NASA. We know what Jubilee 2017 scored everywhere - but NOW we only have a rough idea of Gema breakdown - the rest of swing regions is up in smoke.

[RV Pundit]

Jubilee will seamlessly transfer to UDA - as long as Ruto has Mt kenya - even hiyo 50 percent - then he is VERY powerful. it not easy to get 50 percent of GEMA - while having huge play in Non-GEMA.

How do you leave someone - to go with you figure - 40 percent of national vote - to go join someone starting with 10 percent of Luo votes

HOW? Raila is kaput - and Ruto is likely to wrap 2022 before December.

Governors - read what is happening to Gachagua and the intimidation they are going through.

Ruto has said many of them are with him - just waiting until lameduck cannot arrest and hound them out of office.

By Nov- they will be out - because I think you need to belong to a party SIX months to nomination; so that is key deadline.

How is 50-50 a "clean sweep"? In 2018 you told us Kieleweke has 10 MPs - which was brazen lies just like now. Gema was 99% UhuRuto. I see the MPs demanding Tuju must go to revamp the party. Pray BBI stay dead - otherwise that rickety Jubilee will be your worst nightmare.

Western or Gusii or Kwale - non-GEMA swings - have gone back to their tribal cocoons. Ruto in Jubilee 1 did lots of hard work there to even get few Kamba MPs - Victor Munyakas - now I don't see any Jubilee or UDA there. For example is Mvurya in Jubilee or UDA or what? How about Lusaka? How about Sonko? Sakaja? Ole Lenku or Tunai?

You need to watch Manyora video - obviously without the blinkers - and try to understand why Ruto has bigger problems than Raila.

[RV Pundit]

Duruma like Mvurya who is even a minority in Kwale or Sakaja - Pkosgei of Mt elgon trying to hide in luhya - are suposedly people Ruto need to worry about.

Nairobi - it done deal - Wanjiru(Incoming governor) and all Mt kenya Mps in Nairobi are on board - I think Musciain was last seen with Gideon Moi but he is going to join UDA soon. Only empty seat is senate and women rep. Sakaja can go drying. Ruto will sell that senate seat to someone else. For now Ruto is interested in selling Wanjiru - and with Sonko dead - and without ODM's Kidero running to homabay - she has a clean shot - against neophyte like Sakaja or Weta's brother- or if Kamanda has his way - his boy Waweru (that is why they are in ODM-handshake)

Coast -  Mvurya I believe is still Ruto man (just hiding like most governors from Harambee house prefects monitoring governors) - but in any case it wont change the dynamics. Ruto has to get Kingi if he wants to get big slice of coast. I think Kingi is done with Raila. But even without Kingi - Ruto will do better than Uhuru Kenyatta - who is hated in coast. Ruto already made himself a coastarian with land in taita.

Ukambani - Ruto will play the usual - Munyakas/Muthamas/ - Kalonzo at best 8 percent - so Ruto will play the 1 percent.

Pundit Jubilee utility to Raila is to first scuttle Ruto sheep - Mvuryas, Munyakas, Sakajas, etc who were presumably with Ruto. Second to break Gema. Both are going very well.

When you acknowledge the BIG HEADACHE reassembling Jubilee mean machine is - compared to reassembling NASA. We know what Jubilee 2017 scored everywhere - but NOW we only have a rough idea of Gema breakdown - the rest of swing regions is up in smoke.

[Nefertiti]

Mvurya, Sakaja, Munyaka, etc were in Ruto Jubilee bag. Now it back to basics. Heshimu baba.

Nairobi if you were not so biased - you would see Wanjiru is just a Waititu - MINUS UNITED GEMA juggernaut. She is not Sonko. Ruto does not have all Kikuyus and most definitely does not have Kamba or Kavirondo vote. If NASA stick together (or worse add Jubilee-Kieleweke) - even Kidero would easily beat Wanjiru. Waweru as Handshake candidate would be worst for UDA challenge due to Kikuyu split.

Coast Ruto game is unproven. The Duruma Mvurya helped him in Diani to fend off Joho supremacy - otherwise hustler wave only seem to work in Gema where there is retiring dynasty. Big surprise. Kingi is too lazy and inept to build a local party without either Ruto or Raila - so it seem all small fish will have to decide for themselves which side is best chance to win. Am not sure grabbing 1k farm makes Ruto a local - Raila biggest card remains BBI, which is the most potent carrot compared to usual title deeds or tourism promises.

Balala is dead?

Duruma like Mvurya who is even a minority in Kwale or Sakaja - Pkosgei of Mt elgon trying to hide in luhya - are suposedly people Ruto need to worry about.

Nairobi - it done deal - Wanjiru(Incoming governor) and all Mt kenya Mps in Nairobi are on board - I think Musciain was last seen with Gideon Moi but he is going to join UDA soon. Only empty seat is senate and women rep. Sakaja can go drying. Ruto will sell that senate seat to someone else. For now Ruto is interested in selling Wanjiru - and with Sonko dead - and without ODM's Kidero running to homabay - she has a clean shot - against neophyte like Sakaja or Weta's brother.

Coast -  Mvurya I believe is still Ruto man (just hiding like most governors from Harambee house prefects monitoring governors) - but in any case it wont change the dynamics. Ruto has to get Kingi if he wants to get big slice of coast. I think Kingi is done with Raila. But even without Kingi - Ruto will do better than Uhuru Kenyatta - who is hated in coast. Ruto already made himself a coastarian with land in taita.

Ukambani - Ruto will play the usual - Munyakas/Muthamas/ - Kalonzo at best 8 percent - so Ruto will play the 1 percent.

[RV Pundit]

Not everyone in Jubilee carry same weight - some can quit - others will join. Baba can take Sakaja anyday. He bring zero votes to Ruto because Sabaoti like other Kalenjin are inside the tent. If Ruto want luhyas in numbers - then he has to deal with Weta and MaDVD or work with his usual crew.

Nairobi - as of now - Wanjiru is leading - we know Sonko will probably run again - and Raila/ODM - we dont know - but so far Wanjiru is the clear favourite - obviously if NARA can unite again - tough luck with that - then Wanjiru will be worried.

BBI is dead as dodo and all those promises are dead.

Kingi will not back Raila - because Joho has front row seat pale. The same with Mvurya. They are therefore likely to make deal with Ruto.

If Ruto get Kingi - then he will beat Raila in coast - where Raila has been winning big - but mistreating them big.

Ruto coast is not critical - rigging buffers. Balala as pure Arabs knows he has no play in Mombasa except in Mvita. So balala has said he aint joining politics - and will try to eat for one more year - and hope next gov will retain him as tourism expert.

Mvurya, Sakaja, Munyaka, etc were in Ruto Jubilee bag. Now it back to basics. Heshimu baba.

Nairobi if you were not so biased - you would see Wanjiru is just a Waititu - MINUS UNITED GEMA juggernaut. She is not Sonko. Ruto does not have all Kikuyus and most definitely does not have Kamba or Kavirondo vote. If NASA stick together (or worse add Jubilee-Kieleweke) - even Kidero would easily beat Wanjiru. Waweru as Handshake candidate would be worst for UDA challenge due to Kikuyu split.

Coast Ruto game is unproven. The Duruma Mvurya helped him in Diani to fend off Joho supremacy - otherwise hustler wave only seem to work in Gema where there is retiring dynasty. Big surprise. Kingi is too lazy and inept to build a local party without either Ruto or Raila - so it seem all small fish will have to decide for themselves which side is best chance to win. Am not sure grabbing 1k farm makes Ruto a local - Raila biggest card remains BBI, which is the most potent carrot compared to usual title deeds or tourism promises.

Balala is dead?

Duruma like Mvurya who is even a minority in Kwale or Sakaja - Pkosgei of Mt elgon trying to hide in luhya - are suposedly people Ruto need to worry about.

Nairobi - it done deal - Wanjiru(Incoming governor) and all Mt kenya Mps in Nairobi are on board - I think Musciain was last seen with Gideon Moi but he is going to join UDA soon. Only empty seat is senate and women rep. Sakaja can go drying. Ruto will sell that senate seat to someone else. For now Ruto is interested in selling Wanjiru - and with Sonko dead - and without ODM's Kidero running to homabay - she has a clean shot - against neophyte like Sakaja or Weta's brother.

Coast -  Mvurya I believe is still Ruto man (just hiding like most governors from Harambee house prefects monitoring governors) - but in any case it wont change the dynamics. Ruto has to get Kingi if he wants to get big slice of coast. I think Kingi is done with Raila. But even without Kingi - Ruto will do better than Uhuru Kenyatta - who is hated in coast. Ruto already made himself a coastarian with land in taita.

Ukambani - Ruto will play the usual - Munyakas/Muthamas/ - Kalonzo at best 8 percent - so Ruto will play the 1 percent.

[Nefertiti]

I can't say I know Sakaja plan - which convinces me he is Uhuru errand boy to nurse Mdvd katikati pipedream. Otherwise unless Sakaja is the solo Handshake candidate he can forget Nairobi governor. He should be with Ruto or Uhuru-Raila for that, not Mdvd.

Joho and Oparanya once they flopped against Mvurya and Mdvd in by-elections - must have learnt they are not ripe for PORK. They are small sub-tribe kings - and cannot hope to run against Mdvd let alone Raila or Ruto.

Ruto has no good picks in regional kingpins. Definitely has nothing to offer them. Besides majority leader.

[RV Pundit]

Sakaja want to be Nairobi governor. He knows he has to play Luhya card before anything. Which is why he has run to maDVD. Otherwise if he wanted senate - he'd keep it. Sakaja knows Ruto - will do what GEMA wants in Nairobi. Sonko was a complication but seem he isolated himself by being too smart.

After Weta - who can at least deliver 2 counties - we have one county kind of guys - exiting - Joho, oparany, nanok, ojammong, kingi, mvurya - some of them really have very little say - for example Mvurya come from duruma in kwale where the Digos are the majority - someone like Narok governor Tunai is almost useless - he comes from tiny Maasai clan of Siria and has been governor almost exclusively on kipsigis backing - against the popolous Purko clan of Ntimama. Ruto therefore has cut a deal with Ntutus who are paramount chiefs of Purko for them to go for governorship with backing of Kalenjin - and deny Raila's Maasai Purko votes.

So yes of course Nanok, Kingi, Joho, Oparanya, Ongwae,mvury,ojaamong - are some of exiting governors from small tribes that can influence 1-2 percent of the national vote - and they should expect to similarly get 2-3 percent of the power - they at best can bring half the county they currently run.

I can't say I know Sakaja plan - which convinces me he is Uhuru errand boy to nurse Mdvd katikati pipedream. Otherwise unless Sakaja is the solo Handshake candidate he can forget Nairobi governor. He should be with Ruto, Uhuru or Raila for that, not Mdvd.

Joho and Oparanya once they flopped against Mvurya-Ruto and Mdvd in by-elections - must have learnt they are not ripe for PORK. They are small sub-tribe kings - and cannot hope to run against Mdvd let alone Raila or Ruto.

Ruto has no good picks in regional kingpins. Definitely has nothing to offer them. Besides majority leader.

[Nefertiti]

I have seen you commit 2 cardinal sins on eve of judgement day: declaring BBI is dead fwaa bila mitigation plan. What if it comes back? At least Raila is preparing BBI-in-100 days option to string his lineup. If BBI resurrect - Ruto & UDA will have a nightmare.

Sin 2: that Ruto has Gema direct. This is obviously not true. You tell us how Raila stringing 5 kingpins is difficult. Same applies to Ruto in first Kikuyu, then Meru, then elsewhere in non-Gema. Try to contemplate at least Merus or one of Kuria, Gachagua or Kiunjuri bolting to run solo or join Muturi-Uhuru. That's more realistic than saying how Ruto has Jubilee laity and needs small rigging margin in pwani.

Assume: BBI is back. Weta joins Ruto. Kiunjuri bolts.

Not everyone in Jubilee carry same weight - some can quit - others will join. Baba can take Sakaja anyday. He bring zero votes to Ruto because Sabaoti like other Kalenjin are inside the tent. If Ruto want luhyas in numbers - then he has to deal with Weta and MaDVD or work with his usual crew.

Nairobi - as of now - Wanjiru is leading - we know Sonko will probably run again - and Raila/ODM - we dont know - but so far Wanjiru is the clear favourite - obviously if NARA can unite again - tough luck with that - then Wanjiru will be worried.

BBI is dead as dodo and all those promises are dead.

Kingi will not back Raila - because Joho has front row seat pale. The same with Mvurya. They are therefore likely to make deal with Ruto.

If Ruto get Kingi - then he will beat Raila in coast - where Raila has been winning big - but mistreating them big.

Ruto coast is not critical - rigging buffers. Balala as pure Arabs knows he has no play in Mombasa except in Mvita. So balala has said he aint joining politics - and will try to eat for one more year - and hope next gov will retain him as tourism expert.

[Nefertiti]

Yes. And Raila BBI proper or BBI-in-100 days strings all those people easily. Using hybrid - they get to sneak in as MP, remain kingpin as CS or whatever. Ruto has nothing - so at most Kingi or Nanok have ZERO MOTIVATION - to actively back Ruto. What for? A super-ambitious featherweight like Mutua has no reason at all to back Ruto. Notice how Savula or Chris Wamalwa will fight tooth & nail with something real to gain. Wa Iria sees nothing in Ruto or UDA.

Sakaja unless Uhuru help him - has very small hope of landing Nairobi governor. Because even as Handshake lineup take shape - Mdvd-Weta will be given carte blanche in Western. Nairobi iko wenyewe. But I get he has no choice in ODM congested house so he needs Mdvd to edge himself into NASA inner circle.

Sakaja want to be Nairobi governor. He knows he has to play Luhya card before anything. Which is why he has run to maDVD. Otherwise if he wanted senate - he'd keep it. Sakaja knows Ruto - will do what GEMA wants in Nairobi. Sonko was a complication but seem he isolated himself by being too smart.

After Weta - who can at least deliver 2 counties - we have one county kind of guys - exiting - Joho, oparany, nanok, ojammong, kingi, mvurya - some of them really have very little say - for example Mvurya come from duruma in kwale where the Digos are the majority - someone like Narok governor Tunai is almost useless - he comes from tiny Maasai clan of Siria and has been governor almost exclusively on kipsigis backing - against the popolous Purko clan of Ntimama. Ruto therefore has cut a deal with Ntutus who are paramount chiefs of Purko for them to go for governorship with backing of Kalenjin - and deny Raila's Maasai Purko votes.

So yes of course Nanok, Kingi, Joho, Oparanya, Ongwae,mvury,ojaamong - are some of exiting governors from small tribes that can influence 1-2 percent of the national vote - and they should expect to similarly get 2-3 percent of the power - they at best can bring half the county they currently run.

[Nefertiti]

Why do likes of Khalwale go to Ruto? Kakamega is Mdvd area not Ruto. Unlesss Mdvd goes Ruto Khalwale will wind up 20% ala 2017. These guys - Omar, Khalwale, Echesa - are only eating Ruto cash just as you accuse Balalas. At least those are eating GoK cash not Uhuru or Raila.