MaDVD out of Raila's NASA officially

[RV Pundit]

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[Nefertiti]

Scene 2 Act 4 of NARC 2 drama by Raila groupies.

Mdvd is the easiest to string. He is a pompous, panacious WINDBAG - like Miguna - so Raila and Uhuru easily give him katikati hopes. I told you long ago Kalonzo is already in the bag - very desperate, very happy with VP, and Kamba are under Wiper lock & key.

But Ruto is still dreaming about Luhya - esp Bukusu. Mdvd needs to run around to excite them ala 2013. Weta has folded and allowed him to eclipse all Luhya - with all Eugenes, Wangamatis, Wamunyinyis backing Mdvd Weta has no balls nor weight to back Ruto. I also think you are wrong to count on Lusaka - a known Kieleweke functionary - to back Ruto. Lusaka is watermelon type but more likely to go with Handshake.

Note how KIELEWEKE are the ones giving Mdvd false katikati hopes. He is touring and being hosted by Uhuru crew - Lee Kinyanjui and Kimemias - plus Sakaja another Uhuru boy.

[Nefertiti]

Anyway Ruto needs to fix his runningmate problems first. Before dreaming of big game Raila-level.

Here is Kaloozer back to baba bossom.

Wiper postpones PG meeting after Raila, Kalonzo hold talks
https://nation.africa/kenya/news/politics/wiper-postpones-pg-meeting-after-raila-kalonzo-hold-talks-3484520

Without Wiper and Kanu - you are basically down to AMANI western party as OKA.   Mdvd will round up Luhya for Handshake - mop up all Barasas - and angle for D/PM. I don't see him getting PM which long reserved for Gema in BBI lineup. Mvd basically driven by those two - katikati and PM - he is not delusional enough to go for PORK on his own.

[RV Pundit]

Lots of wishful thinking - that ends up in everyone lining behind Raila.
That strategy is not tenable. Kalonzo and Weta just waiting to get millions from ODMS - and they bolt out.
NASA and Raila being supported Kalonzo or MaDVD or Weta is NOT TENABLE.
What could work - 2nd Round Strategy - like it worked when OKA denied UDA ground in the by-elections.
That would mean - all of the 5-10of them - retreat and protect their turfs from UDA - and Uhuru tries to splinter Mt kenya.
Hopefully RUto doesn't win 50 plus one  - and the decision of who NASA brigade will support - will be sorted automatically.
Raila will come 2nd - and will face RUTO.

Of course the biggest risk is Ruto win 1st round by 50 percent one. 2013 again!

Sakaja, Malala and Savula - are driving maDVD for their own governorship bids. Sakaja is not acting for Uhuru - for Luhya govership voters.

Weta is done with Raila - after he replaced with Orengo and schism in his party. Wamalwa Chris is driving Weta - and Lusaka want to go back and win his seat against Wangamati - both will deliver Weta to Ruto.

Kalonzo used to be driven by Muthama as he financed him - now it appears Kalonzo is independent man - but Mutula Son - and Wambua - Ndeti - all keen to use wiper to governorship in Kitui, Makueni and Machakos.  Ngilu attempt to sell Raila will therefore hit a dead end - as Kalonzo is interested - first in winning the 3 governoship of Ukambani -something he doesnt have.

Scene 2 Act 4 of NARC 2 drama by Raila groupies.

Mdvd is the easiest to string. He is a pompous, panacious WINDBAG - like Miguna - so Raila and Uhuru easily give him katikati hopes. I told you long ago Kalonzo is already in the bag - very desperate, very happy with VP, and Kamba are under Wiper lock & key.

But Ruto is still dreaming about Luhya - esp Bukusu. Mdvd needs to run around to excite them ala 2013. Weta has folded and allowed him to eclipse all Luhya - with all Eugenes, Wangamatis, Wamunyinyis backing Mdvd Weta has no balls nor weight to back Ruto. I also think you are wrong to count on Lusaka - a known Kieleweke functionary - to back Ruto. Lusaka is watermelon type but more likely to go with Handshake.

Note how KIELEWEKE are the ones giving Mdvd false katikati hopes. He is touring and being hosted by Uhuru crew - Lee Kinyanjui and Kimemias - plus Sakaja another Uhuru boy.

[Njuri Ncheke]

Robina tell us more about PK the "golden boy" of mt.kenya,choice of deep state and bla bla blah and how he will be running mate to baba the stuff you smoke is second to none.

[Nefertiti]

Robina tell us more about PK the "golden boy" of mt.kenya,choice of deep state and bla bla blah and how he will be running mate to baba the stuff you smoke is second to none.

What is Ruto's plan in Mt Kenya East? - he is stuck sorting Kikuyu problems between Kuria, Kiunjuri, Gachagua, etc. At least Raila has a plan: which is delay solid declarations until BBI court battle is settled - and let the kingpins round up their tribes in the meantime.

Attempting to build a big hustler party - straight from Jubilee implosion  - is a poor strategy. Things are only relatively smooth in Kalenjin.

[Nefertiti]

It funny how Sakaja, Malala, Chris Wamalwa are all acting for their own personal interests - but not Kuria or Gachagua. NASA is already a coalition of distinct mostly tribal parties - it cannot "split" - just rebrand as Handshake or another Rainbow alliance.

These people have already rebranded from CORD and voted Raila before - in fact backing Raila is the default position as you can see Kalonzo. It is untested experiment to vote Mdvd as katikati - or for Bukusu to vote Ruto. After investing all those years and cash to get 50% of Kikuyu - Ruto would need a miracle to nail Bukusu or Gusii. He has been demonized there more than Raila in Gema. It is VERY DIFFICULT to just herd off Bukusu or Maragoli to Ruto.

Of course you can hope to have a by-election everyone-for-himself strategy. This can happen if first BBI die, Raila fails to string them with BBI-in-100 days hat-trick, and they all man up. After 2007, 2013 where they managed 4-8% they are not delusional. Weta I doubt can even attempt to run for Bungoma senator under Ruto coalition 

STRATEGY - until Ruto has a BBI blank check - NASA crew and most governors will not play ball. Ohoo Ruto 50% in round one - from Star 40% opinion poll? When did he solidify Gema let alone non-Gema? Mpaka Mijikenda are already in his column

[RV Pundit]

Everyone is of course acting on their own interest - Kuria or Gachagua cannot lead mt Kenya out of Ruto - even if they wanted - Ruto already inside that tent.

I don't see how Kalonzo or MaDVD will do the same thing for like forever; Three times! It aint working; But we shall see; so far they have run to OKA and do not want Raila.

BBI is dead - and Raila is thinking of plan B - maybe through parliament - although it could be too late for that - and again depending on how stringent the court decides any amendment will be pursued - parliament may only be allowed to ammend one issue at a time.
And I dont see how anybody can get 2/3 majority in parliament so BBI is dead as dodo

Ruto 40 percent - where do you get that? Wait for MOAS; And where do you get Ruto has 50 percent of Mt Kenya vote? Who has the other 50 percent - Raila
.

It funny how Sakaja, Malala, Chris Wamalwa are all acting for their own personal interests - but not Kuria or Gachagua. NASA is already a coalition of distinct mostly tribal parties - it cannot "split" - just rebrand as Handshake or another Rainbow alliance.

These people have already rebranded from CORD and voted Raila before - in fact backing Raila is the default position as you can see Kalonzo. It is untested experiment to vote Mdvd as katikati - or for Bukusu to vote Ruto. After investing all those years and cash to get 50% of Kikuyu - Ruto would need a miracle to nail Bukusu or Gusii. He has been demonized there more than Raila in Gema. It is VERY DIFFICULT to just herd off Bukusu or Maragoli to Ruto.

Of course you can hope to have a by-election everyone-for-himself strategy. This can happen if first BBI die, Raila fails to string them with BBI-in-100 days hat-trick, and they all man up. After 2007, 2013 where they managed 4-8% they are not delusional. Weta I doubt can even attempt to run for Bungoma senator under Ruto coalition 

STRATEGY - until Ruto has a BBI blank check - NASA crew and most governors will not play ball. Ohoo Ruto 50% in round one - from Star 40% opinion poll? When did he solidify Gema let alone non-Gema? Mpaka Mijikenda are already in his column

[RV Pundit]

Lol - I think now it's Raila-Muturi - next week it will be Raila-Waiguru - Raila-Munya - Raila-Kabogo- but somehow Kalonzo is suppose to come - and get something, madvd too, weta, and 20 governors.

The kind of madness in ODM

Robina tell us more about PK the "golden boy" of mt.kenya,choice of deep state and bla bla blah and how he will be running mate to baba the stuff you smoke is second to none.

[Nefertiti]

So is it Ruto-Kiunjuri or Ruto-Wahome? Or the almighty Ruto can pick anyone he wishes. Raila plan is let Uhuru and Gema sort their mess - then give them their slot. Kamba, Luhya already have it sorted. It not Raila job nor interest to pick PK or Muturi. Ruto UDA project is literally "climbing" the mountain.

Lol - I think now it's Raila-Muturi - next week it will be Raila-Waiguru - Raila-Munya - Raila-Kabogo- but somehow Kalonzo is suppose to come - and get something, madvd too, weta, and 20 governors.

The kind of madness in ODM

Robina tell us more about PK the "golden boy" of mt.kenya,choice of deep state and bla bla blah and how he will be running mate to baba the stuff you smoke is second to none.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit you been singing Kiunjuri longer than I have been fronting PK.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto will pick any Kikuyu he wants. All of them are hustlers. Maybe if Meru-Embu thing catch fire and Kikuyus accept - which I dont see it happening - they will.

Ruto will give Kikuyu DPORK and 50 percent of gov - so Kuria will get something big, Gachagua, Kiunjuri, Alice Wahome - most of them are assured of CS - and huge influence in Ruto gov.

Next would be for RUTO to reward Mt Kenya east - Merus/Embus.

Those are the critical constitutuencies.

Ruto of course has 1/3 of gov - he will try to flock to wakina Weta/MaDVD including even Kalonzo (I think Muthama is still working on him) - if they come down to reality.

Half belong to GEMA. KAMATUSA+Pastoralist will share a small portion of their half (given RUto is PORK) with anybody willing to bring 5 percent to make sure Ruto has rigging proof margins.

The part to be shared - will be speakers, ambassadors and maybe 2-3 CS - that offer Kalonzo/maDVD/Weta will receive - and Majority Leader or Chief Minister for them.

So is it Ruto-Kiunjuri or Ruto-Wahome? Or the almighty Ruto can pick anyone he wishes. Raila plan is let Uhuru and Gema sort their mess - then give them their slot. Kamba, Luhya already have it sorted. It not Raila job nor interest to pick PK or Muturi. Ruto UDA project is literally "climbing" the mountain.

Lol - I think now it's Raila-Muturi - next week it will be Raila-Waiguru - Raila-Munya - Raila-Kabogo- but somehow Kalonzo is suppose to come - and get something, madvd too, weta, and 20 governors.

The kind of madness in ODM

Robina tell us more about PK the "golden boy" of mt.kenya,choice of deep state and bla bla blah and how he will be running mate to baba the stuff you smoke is second to none.

[RV Pundit]

He still has few months to shape up; things are changing; I dont think he foresaw Ruto entering directly; I also underrated the anger kikuyu nation have on Mama Ngina son. It very deep. COVID is not helping as it turn people in paupers with most gema having leveraged struggling with debts.

Kiunjuri is playing alone. He better fold the tissue paper, flash it down and get a wheelbarrow. I think he has been told - but having spend millions - he is having issues.

Kiunjuri need to go FRONTAL against Uhuru - totally - almost unprovoked. First he need to fold TSP. It has not following.

Pundit you been singing Kiunjuri longer than I have been fronting PK.

[Nefertiti]

Glad you agree Kiunjuri need to RUN FOR PORK. Nobody is excited by a follower - running to be Ruto runningmate puts him on Kuria level. Also simply having anti-Uhuru grievances is Kuria stuff. Muturi strategy is better - because it blank check to promise mana of GMR on milk or miraa bla bla. But Ruto would not want this.

I think it's too late for Kiunjuri and PK now. Unless Uhuru hold big meeting and endorse PK - does the guy have covid or what - haven't seen him since Bondo with Kamanda. Muturi is the man now.

Kiunjuri equally already launched TSP - but failed to offer anything against Uhuru or independently. He can't re-launch tissue party since noone take him seriously. Kuria and Gachagua already overtook him. Bure kabisa.

By the way am impressed with Kuria and Gachagua. Propanganda-wise and playing victim card. It mistake to hound them over graft Uhuru should order Kinoti to cut them loose and deflate them. Naturally I see Kuria stepping down for UDA in Kiambaa or ANYWHERE in Gema as big blunder. Ruto with more to loose Kuria should have called his bluff and run with Kiambaa and Kiambu yote. Now they have less leverage against Ruto except threaten to makeup with Uhuru if UDA short-change them.

He still has few months to shape up; things are changing; I dont think he foresaw Ruto entering directly; I also underrated the anger kikuyu nation have on Mama Ngina son. It very deep. COVID is not helping as it turn people in paupers with most gema having leveraged struggling with debts.

Kiunjuri is playing alone. He better fold the tissue paper, flash it down and get a wheelbarrow. I think he has been told - but having spend millions - he is having issues.

Kiunjuri need to go FRONTAL against Uhuru - totally - almost unprovoked. First he need to fold TSP. It has not following.

[RV Pundit]

Of what use is Kamikaze run for PORK like Muturi is doing. Mt kenya know Kiunjuri is not ready for PORK. Martha has run before. PK has run before. They got less votes than default. Mukaru wa Nganga who normally flew from Finland or Sweden, registers and go back, get 0.2 percent, same votes PK got.

What Kiunjuri need to do is become Ruto no 2 - and become team player.

Strategically wise Ruto coupling in 2016 by folding URP has created a strong bond with Mt kenya.....so coming from a different party wont cut.

In short Kiunjuri fold TSP, join UDA and start attacking Uhuru and his gov without relenting. He is waiting for Uhuru to attack him.

And then his kilimo house stint is working against him as Munya short term reforms are better than his.

I think I will downgrade him to 50-50 with Alice Wahome. But Kiunjuri is a fighter - so he can still fight - he just need to join Ruto so he can get the air wave.

So fold the tissue paper party of kenya, flush it down, merge with UDA, and then start accompanying ruto, and really hitting mama ngina boy below the belt, and Ruto can come and do the clean up.
Otherwise Ruto now can pick a boda boda  kikuyu guy like they did in Kiambaa and he can become DPORK

Glad you agree Kiunjuri need to RUN FOR PORK. Nobody is excited by a follower - running to be Ruto runningmate puts him on Kuria level. Also simply having anti-Uhuru grievances is Kuria stuff. Muturi strategy is better - because it blank check to promise mana of GMR on milk or miraa bla bla. But Ruto would not want this.

I think it's too late for Kiunjuri and PK now. Unless Uhuru hold big meeting and endorse PK - does the guy have covid or what - haven't seen him since Bondo with Kamanda. Muturi is the man now.

Kiunjuri equally already launched TSP - but failed to offer anything against Uhuru or independently. He can't re-launch tissue party since noone take him seriously. Kuria and Gachagua already overtook him. Bure kabisa.

By the way am impressed with Kuria and Gachagua. Propanganda-wise and playing victim card. It mistake to hound them over graft Uhuru should order Kinoti to cut them loose and deflate them. Naturally I see Kuria stepping down for UDA in Kiambaa or ANYWHERE in Gema as big blunder. Ruto with more to loose Kuria should have called his bluff and run with Kiambaa and Kiambu yote. Now they have less leverage against Ruto except threaten to makeup with Uhuru if UDA short-change them.

He still has few months to shape up; things are changing; I dont think he foresaw Ruto entering directly; I also underrated the anger kikuyu nation have on Mama Ngina son. It very deep. COVID is not helping as it turn people in paupers with most gema having leveraged struggling with debts.

Kiunjuri is playing alone. He better fold the tissue paper, flash it down and get a wheelbarrow. I think he has been told - but having spend millions - he is having issues.

Kiunjuri need to go FRONTAL against Uhuru - totally - almost unprovoked. First he need to fold TSP. It has not following.

[Nefertiti]

I agree at this point it too late for Kiunjuri. And PK. But 2 years ago it was doable. My argument is based on the assumption he has a brain, ambition and resources separate from Ruto. But the cowardice and lack of traction indicate otherwise - he is just a fool.

Njuri and Noway were right on this one. But none of the Merus seem primed for DPORK either - so maybe Wahome can edge out Gachagua and Kuria - but don't count on it. It strange how intra-Gema politics can be nightmare even for outsiders. No I don't think Ruto can handpick a nobody - cause Gachaguas have big leverage on him. You don't want a fallout with big race down to the wire.

[RV Pundit]

Gachangua has no leverage on Ruto. But Uhuru is elevating him by persecuting him. Nyeri having had their share - with kibaki - cannot become DPORK - the same with Kuria. Ruto will sit them down and explain to them. Both will be free to pick any other positions. Kuria is probably best to go for Kiambu - and if he fails - he get cabinet. The same with Gachagua - take Nyeri governorship - from the poor primary teacher - and Kieleweke Corona man Kagwe - or even more laughable GOOGLE man Joe Gicheru

Gachagua I believe is working with Kiunjuri - they are a team. Kiunjuri still has an edge but he really has few months to make hard decision and join UDA.

Otherwise Alice Wahome will likely be - ) but Ruto fear Kiunjuri the most - because he can be lethal in kikuyu whistle campaign.

If Uhuru become a spoiler - Muturi could get some brownie points - although I don't see him going far - having failed twice in mere MP seat - another Matiangi with little political experience to navigate.

The next stage require political experience - coz decisions will be made a lightning speed.

I agree at this point it too late for Kiunjuri. And PK. But 2 years ago it was doable. My argument is based on the assumption he has a brain, ambition and resources separate from Ruto. But the cowardice and lack of traction indicate otherwise - he is just a fool.

Njuri and Noway were right on this one. But none of the Merus seem primed for DPORK either - so maybe Wahome can edge out Gachagua and Kuria - but don't count on it. It strange how intra-Gema politics can be nightmare even for outsiders. No I don't think Ruto can handpick a nobody - cause Gachaguas have big leverage on him. You don't want a fallout with big race down to the wire.

[Njuri Ncheke]

I agree at this point it too late for Kiunjuri. And PK. But 2 years ago it was doable. My argument is based on the assumption he has a brain, ambition and resources separate from Ruto. But the cowardice and lack of traction indicate otherwise - he is just a fool.

Njuri and Noway were right on this one. But none of the Merus seem primed for DPORK either - so maybe Wahome can edge out Gachagua and Kuria - but don't count on it. It strange how intra-Gema politics can be nightmare even for outsiders. No I don't think Ruto can handpick a nobody - cause Gachaguas have big leverage on him. You don't want a fallout with big race down to the wire.

Perfectly put now you speaking like an elder with wisdom. The truth is even us we don't know whats cooking like you stated Gema politics is very intriguing people scheme day and night we are also waiting to see the outcome maybe by January we can have some picture who it will be. Personally am thinking Wahome is coming up but its complicated.Ruto needs either Muranga,Kikuyu diaspora or mt.kenya east for Dp.
What's making this complex is that Uhuru hasn't played his cards he hasn't poured his billions yet,am sure he will go for the bigwigs in UDA most likely Kiunjuri give him like 20Billion to jump ship. Lets wait and see,Ruto still has some sleepless nights before kura 22 and so do we. Basically he can't risk nominating a dp now as gatheca will simply pour billions to buy him.

[Nefertiti]

I agree at this point it too late for Kiunjuri. And PK. But 2 years ago it was doable. My argument is based on the assumption he has a brain, ambition and resources separate from Ruto. But the cowardice and lack of traction indicate otherwise - he is just a fool.

Njuri and Noway were right on this one. But none of the Merus seem primed for DPORK either - so maybe Wahome can edge out Gachagua and Kuria - but don't count on it. It strange how intra-Gema politics can be nightmare even for outsiders. No I don't think Ruto can handpick a nobody - cause Gachaguas have big leverage on him. You don't want a fallout with big race down to the wire.

Perfectly put now you speaking like an elder with wisdom. The truth is even us we don't know whats cooking like you stated Gema politics is very intriguing people scheme day and night we are also waiting to see the outcome maybe by January we can have some picture who it will be. Personally am thinking Wahome is coming up but its complicated.Ruto needs either Muranga,Kikuyu diaspora or mt.kenya east for Dp.
What's making this complex is that Uhuru hasn't played his cards he hasn't poured his billions yet,am sure he will go for the bigwigs in UDA most likely Kiunjuri give him like 20Billion to jump ship. Lets wait and see,Ruto still has some sleepless nights before kura 22 and so do we. Basically he can't risk nominating a dp now as gatheca will simply pour billions to buy him.

Don't say. RV Pundit believes this thing is locked: Ruto can even pick Githeri Man bila maswali.