Kiambaa, Muguga show Gema splits 50-50

[Nefertiti]

I must admit: Ruto is a propaganda guru. UDA have a vague stand on BBI which they are 100% sure is not a priority. They know BBI is a lethal weapon hence the watermelon disposition. Ruto is decisive and not a Kalonzo fencesitter - this exposes the cowardice and divisions in Tangatanga ala BBI. If BBI is resurrected - this will be a nightmare - as half his team will back it while Duales oppose. Ruto still mumbles incoherently about BBI at every rally.

BBI is as thorny and toxic in Tangatanga as Brexit was in the UK Labor Party. Brexit vagueness handed Labor their worst defeat since the great depression. Ombeni sana.

ANOTHER RUTO LIE: his huge rallies so painstakingly mobilized don't amount to anything. We were wowed with graphics here of mega crowds at Nyachae Stadium and Syokimau or Athi River. That was before UDA's dismal performance in by-elections there. One even if deaf and blind must see Ruto has no magic wand - the only place his dynasty and wheelbarrow lies can almost work is Mt Kenya; - because firstly Uhuru is PORK and can be blamed for the economy, and secondly there is no apparent heir to him. Everywhere else the rallies and lies amount to nothing. Kenya remains genetically tribal.

[RV Pundit]

Ruto was keen to get into a contest with Uhuru earlier on - that explain his BBI passive aggression = but now - everyone knows BBI is dead - Robina it is DEAD AS DODO.

As for rallies - Ruto did the same in post 2013 - and Jubilee despite being gov - improved from 50 to 55% - just imagine that!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kibaki by his 2nd election was so unpopular - but Ruto had managed to sell Jubilee so much - it improved by whopping 5% - that is like a million votes.

Ruto understand that politics is war of attrition - Raila, Kalonzo and MaDVD networks or domain - will not easily give in - Ruto has to try improve the 55 percent to 60 percent - then eventually 65 percent.

It's not a war for lazy people like Raila or Kalonzo - who want to lazy around and come the last minute - and win votes and voters.

Ruto learnt from Moi - you gotta work for this. You got to invest money, time and energy...if you want to be PORK of kenya - unless you're born with silver spoon like Uhuru and everywhere is named Kenyatta.

I must admit: Ruto is a propaganda guru. UDA have a vague stand on BBI which they are 100% sure is not a priority. They know BBI is a lethal weapon hence the watermelon disposition. Ruto is decisive and not a Kalonzo fencesitter - this exposes the cowardice and divisions in Tangatanga ala BBI. If BBI is resurrected - this will be a nightmare - as half his team will back it while Duales oppose. Ruto still mumbles incoherently about BBI at every rally.

BBI is as thorny and toxic in Tangatanga as Brexit was in the UK Labor Party. Brexit vagueness handed Labor their worst defeat since the great depression. Ombeni sana.

ANOTHER RUTO LIE: his huge rallies so painstakingly mobilized don't amount to anything. We were wowed with graphics here of mega crowds at Nyachae Stadium and Syokimau or Athi River. That was before UDA's dismal performance in by-elections there. One even if deaf and blind must see Ruto has no magic wand - the only place his dynasty and wheelbarrow lies can almost work is Mt Kenya; - because firstly Uhuru is PORK and can be blamed for the economy, and secondly there is no apparent heir to him. Everywhere else the rallies and lies amount to nothing. Kenya remains genetically tribal.

[Nefertiti]

BBI is dead as dodo... - keep up this prayer. I have been asking you why they rigged Koome since they are so law-abiding - your answer is to tout her FIDA accolades and trust her "integrity." Why is Ruto constantly barking against dead BBI? You equally buffled me recently stating that IEBC crew will be picked on technical competence. You know better.

Yes Ruto does constant donkey work for 5 years - then Raila handshake decapitated his mean machine. All the hard work Ruto has done in Mt Kenya last 3 years is thanks to "lazy" Raila. Even the few Kamba Ruto had stolen - are now gone back to Wiper - thanks to Jubilee anarchy. By the way where is Mvurya - I thought hustler won over Kwale?

What is the use of all the hard work when it gets reset to zero every time? Do you know if BBI resurrects - UDA will collapse!! Because they will not be able to agree on a party position - like Jubilee. I know you wishfully blame Uhuru for all Jubilee woes - but it more complicated than that simplistic argument.

In short the race is wide open 1 year to go - from 55% 3 short years ago - ergo your stories about Ruto genius and hard work amount to nothing.

Ruto was keen to get into a contest with Uhuru earlier on - that explain his BBI passive aggression = but now - everyone knows BBI is dead - Robina it is DEAD AS DODO.

As for rallies - Ruto did the same in post 2013 - and Jubilee despite being gov - improved from 50 to 55% - just imagine that!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kibaki by his 2nd election was so unpopular - but Ruto had managed to sell Jubilee so much - it improved by whopping 5% - that is like a million votes.

Ruto understand that politics is war of attrition - Raila, Kalonzo and MaDVD networks or domain - will not easily give in - Ruto has to try improve the 55 percent to 60 percent - then eventually 65 percent.

It's not a war for lazy people like Raila or Kalonzo - who want to lazy around and come the last minute - and win votes and voters.

Ruto learnt from Moi - you gotta work for this. You got to invest money, time and energy...if you want to be PORK of kenya - unless you're born with silver spoon like Uhuru and everywhere is named Kenyatta.

[RV Pundit]

You're an idiot.
1) Why is Ruto so strong you need to merge all opposition and gov - If ruto hardwork, resources and all that is useless - then Ruto would not be youngest and the most dangerous.

2) BBI is dead as dodo. Even Baba knows this now.

3) Koome is not the supreme court - she sits as supreme court judge - as an equal. Her role is limited to mostly administrative matters and constituting high court benches...BBI already passed there.

4) Koome to influence SCORK need to get 4 out 7 judges on her side on a particular issue.

5) Somethings cant be helped. If Koome brother kill a person in broad daylight - her sister cannot help him. If BBI is brought in such a condition it is in - it cannot be helped.

BBI is dead as dodo... - keep up this prayer. I have been asking you why they rigged Koome since they are so law-abiding - your answer is to tout her FIDA accolades and trust her "integrity." Why is Ruto constantly barking against dead BBI? You equally buffled me recently stating that IEBC crew will be picked on technical competence. You know better.

Yes Ruto does constant donkey work for 5 years - then Raila handshake decapitated his mean machine. All the hard work Ruto has done in Mt Kenya last 3 years is thanks to "lazy" Raila. Even the few Kamba Ruto had stolen - are now gone back to Wiper - thanks to Jubilee anarchy. By the way where is Mvurya - I thought hustler won over Kwale?

What is the use of all the hard work when it gets reset to zero every time? Do you know if BBI resurrects - UDA will collapse!! Because they will not be able to agree on a party position - like Jubilee. I know you wishfully blame Uhuru for all Jubilee woes - but it more complicated than that simplistic argument.

In short the race is wide open 1 year to go - from 55% 3 short years ago - ergo your stories about Ruto genius and hard work amount to nothing.

Ruto was keen to get into a contest with Uhuru earlier on - that explain his BBI passive aggression = but now - everyone knows BBI is dead - Robina it is DEAD AS DODO.

As for rallies - Ruto did the same in post 2013 - and Jubilee despite being gov - improved from 50 to 55% - just imagine that!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kibaki by his 2nd election was so unpopular - but Ruto had managed to sell Jubilee so much - it improved by whopping 5% - that is like a million votes.

Ruto understand that politics is war of attrition - Raila, Kalonzo and MaDVD networks or domain - will not easily give in - Ruto has to try improve the 55 percent to 60 percent - then eventually 65 percent.

It's not a war for lazy people like Raila or Kalonzo - who want to lazy around and come the last minute - and win votes and voters.

Ruto learnt from Moi - you gotta work for this. You got to invest money, time and energy...if you want to be PORK of kenya - unless you're born with silver spoon like Uhuru and everywhere is named Kenyatta.

[Nefertiti]

You get the 4 judges by adding Koome on top of what you have. Obviously just like here in US - SCOTUS has almost known outcome cause it handles POLITICAL cases. I don't know how you conclude Odunga's 20 rulings cannot ALL be overturned  - sorry he is just a judge and all those points are in dispute.

Why a compromised CJ and SCORK is so dangerous? Cases at SCORK level are IN DISPUTE - not straightforward debt or murder case that depend on evidence. It is widely published Maraga rulings on 2017 presidential elections and the 2/3 gender rule advisory - were ideologically motivated - rather than legal rationale. Ideological or bias leaning is very serious - I don't even like it myself but it is the reality.

Uhuru or "system" commands loyalty of SCORK by many accounts. They used JSC to line it up.

You have many cases that will be filed by Omtatas and Havis - eg say referendum act, etc - benches will be picked by Koome. Appeals will wind up at SCORK. If Ruto is rigged and runs to SCORK...

You're an idiot.
1) Why is Ruto so strong you need to merge all opposition and gov - If ruto hardwork, resources and all that is useless - then Ruto would not be youngest and the most dangerous.

2) BBI is dead as dodo. Even Baba knows this now.

3) Koome is not the supreme court - she sits as supreme court judge - as an equal. Her role is limited to mostly administrative matters and constituting high court benches...BBI already passed there.

4) Koome to influence SCORK need to get 4 out 7 judges on her side on a particular issue.

5) Somethings cant be helped. If Koome brother kill a person in broad daylight - her sister cannot help him. If BBI is brought in such a condition it is in - it cannot be helped.

[Nefertiti]

This was before Koome rigging

1. The chances of the Court of Appeal overturning the High Court five judges' judgment on bbi is less than 5%.

2. The chances of the Supreme Court of Kenya overturning the bbi judgment is over 75%.(5 to 2)

3. The Supreme Court is the WEAKEST link in the Judicial chain.

— Ahmednasir Abdullahi SC (@ahmednasirlaw) May 14, 2021

?s=19

[RV Pundit]

BBI was given 20-NIl by 5 bench judge - 5 bench is rare bench - normally serious issues are 3 bench - 5 bench is extraordinary - and BBI lost 20-Nil.

Come Court of Appeal - unless Uhuru negotiate for his personal responsibility - it gonna end 7-NIl. No sane judge leave alone SCORK can save BBI - the violations - 20 violations - are obvious to a layman.

Of course SCORK is 7 bench judge. I think majority of judges are intellectual of their own. Ojwang was a Luo and he was not going to just go with Raila. He was a conservative.  etc etc.

For 2017 - what killed UhuRuto election was IEBC fumbling - the report from registar - sunk it - its like BBI - even if Koome want to help you - you have to help yourself.

Do not ever think Kooome having worked all this way for his own legacy is your TEA GIRL - just waiting like  a school guide for call from statehouse telling her to jump.

You'll be suprised by Koome. Just like Raila was suprised by Mutunga - Mutunga had been imprisoned by Moi with Raila and expelled to exile - but when Raila gave him nothing - he gave Raila nothing.

You get the 4 judges by adding Koome on top of what you have. Obviously just like here in US - SCOTUS has almost known outcome cause it handles POLITICAL cases. I don't know how you conclude Odunga's 20 rulings cannot ALL be overturned  - sorry he is just a judge and all those points are in dispute.

Why a compromised CJ and SCORK is so dangerous? Cases at SCORK level are IN DISPUTE - not straightforward debt or murder case that depend on evidence. It is widely published Maraga rulings on 2017 presidential elections and the 2/3 gender rule advisory - were ideologically motivated - rather than legal rationale. Ideological or bias leaning is very serious - I don't even like it myself but it is the reality.

Uhuru or "system" commands loyalty of SCORK by many accounts. They used JSC to line it up.

You have many cases that will be filed by Omtatas and Havis - eg say referendum act, etc - benches will be picked by Koome. Appeals will wind up at SCORK. If Ruto is rigged and runs to SCORK...

You're an idiot.
1) Why is Ruto so strong you need to merge all opposition and gov - If ruto hardwork, resources and all that is useless - then Ruto would not be youngest and the most dangerous.

2) BBI is dead as dodo. Even Baba knows this now.

3) Koome is not the supreme court - she sits as supreme court judge - as an equal. Her role is limited to mostly administrative matters and constituting high court benches...BBI already passed there.

4) Koome to influence SCORK need to get 4 out 7 judges on her side on a particular issue.

5) Somethings cant be helped. If Koome brother kill a person in broad daylight - her sister cannot help him. If BBI is brought in such a condition it is in - it cannot be helped.

[RV Pundit]

Youre desperate if you're hanging on every tweet you read there. Grand Mullah is on his personal wars with Supreme Court because he ate Uhuru millions and lost the case. SCORK have some of most intelligent judges - if something come 20-nil in 5 bench high court bench - and SCORK overrule it - then that serious indictment on the judiciary. It shows BIG disconnect. Just wait for court of appeal to give you another 7- nil.

Overturning 20-nil is impossible. What you can hope for is maybe 17-3 or something like that - some of the goals to be ruled offside - otherwise the final score remain - BBI is dead.

This was before Koome rigging

1. The chances of the Court of Appeal overturning the High Court five judges' judgment on bbi is less than 5%.

2. The chances of the Supreme Court of Kenya overturning the bbi judgment is over 75%.(5 to 2)

3. The Supreme Court is the WEAKEST link in the Judicial chain.

— Ahmednasir Abdullahi SC (@ahmednasirlaw) May 14, 2021

?s=19

[Nefertiti]

I am saying: Ruto hardwork and genius - is no more potent or "dangerous" - than Raila Handshake & BBI card. All those big fish run from dangerous Ruto to Raila cause he strings them along. If he was not smart - Ruto would have him for breakfast, lunch and dinner. If you agree the race is open - then you agree neither Ruto nor Raila has managed to close the deal.

Unless you really believe Ruto is "sleepwalking to PORK" which is just silly.

You're an idiot.
1) Why is Ruto so strong you need to merge all opposition and gov - If ruto hardwork, resources and all that is useless - then Ruto would not be youngest and the most dangerous.

[RV Pundit]

It quite simple. If Raila is not backed by anybody; he will struggle to get to 20 percent. Ruto will probably struggle to get to 50 percent without a merger.

Raila is not in Ruto league. Ruto people are just edging him so he can run....and make their work in Mt kenya easy.

Raila MUST have Kalonzo, MaDVD, Weta and Uhuru to be competitive.

Ruto nope - he can even today wake up - and appoint random Wanjiku in Mt kenya - and still get to 50 percent of national vote.

Ruto has the core of Jubilee - more or less - the hard work outside GEMA is to deal with turn out and fallout - otherwise he is starting from Jubilee 55 percent - lameduck if he want to take a few - Ruto is busy filling it outside GEMA.

Raila while he was busy in Jubilee - forget to keep NASA united. Big blunder. First get Kaloi. That should take you to 30 percent. Then maDVD should take you to 40 percent. Then Weta to 45 percent. Then ask Uhuru for top up. You cannot start from top up

I am saying: Ruto hardwork and genius - is no more potent or "dangerous" - than Raila Handshake & BBI card. All those big fish run from dangerous Ruto to Raila cause he strings them along. If he was not smart - Ruto would have him for breakfast, lunch and dinner. If you agree the race is open - then you agree neither Ruto nor Raila has managed to close the deal.

Unless you really believe Ruto is "sleepwalking to PORK" which is just silly.

[Nefertiti]

I am not sure how you determine margin of loss from bench vs case. 20 rulings by 5 judges... is it 20-nil or 5-nil?

[RV Pundit]

It 5- nil times 20. There are 20 issues - and you lose all of them. Judges can choose to give scores different. One judge can give you 18-2, 20-nil, 10-10.

I expect the Court of Appeal will make such interesting decisions - just to show they thought about it - and are bigger boys than high court

Some may go 18-2, 16-4 - but ultimately they cannot overturn all the 20 adversary findings against Uhuru, IEBC, Raila, Assemblies, etc
 
One mistake - same effect - null and void. Just like Uhuru lost - in 2017 - coz IEBC conceded goals. Uhuru did not rig - but IEBC were so incompetent it became hard to justify it mess.

For example - BBI - IEBC verify signatures in a week - gave kenyans 5 days including weekend - and publish it only on their website. HOW DO YOU CURE THAT. Their own regulation talks of 2 weeks with publishing in newspapers.

BBI promoters do not even both to print their draft in KISWAHILI - HOW DO YOU DEFEND THAT? Kenya constitution clearly say Kiswahili is the national language.

BBI is DEAD AS DODO - completely dead like Jubilee. Almost nothing was done right - 20 violations.

I am not sure how you determine margin of loss from bench vs case. 20 rulings by 5 judges... is it 20-nil or 5-nil?

[Nefertiti]

First, no Ruto cannot appoint random Wanjiku as DPORK. In fact he will have to let them square out in UDA primaries to avoid big fallout. Second his runningmate MUST be Gema - which denies him leeway to string Mdvds without ideological somersault. He has boxed himself by rejecting BBI as dynasty project.

Raila ALREADY HAS NASA in his corner. The noises are just positioning. Their strategy is to corner their respective tribal cocoons - so everyone must pretend to run for PORK - to keep Kamba or Luhya hopeful. Worked like a charm in recent by-elections. This is the blunder Kiunjuri fool made - running to be runningmate - which has let lazy Uhuru keep 50% easy. Muturi approach is better. DPORK doesn't excite people so Kalonzo and Mdvd and Muturis will run for PORK until April 2022 - when they will meet at Kasarani or State House or Uhuru Park - and announce BBI lineup.

BBI lineup is well known.

It quite simple. If Raila is not backed by anybody; he will struggle to get to 20 percent. Ruto will probably struggle to get to 50 percent without a merger.

Raila is not in Ruto league. Ruto people are just edging him so he can run....and make their work in Mt kenya easy.

Raila MUST have Kalonzo, MaDVD, Weta and Uhuru to be competitive.

Ruto nope - he can even today wake up - and appoint random Wanjiku in Mt kenya - and still get to 50 percent of national vote.

Ruto has the core of Jubilee - more or less - the hard work outside GEMA is to deal with turn out and fallout - otherwise he is starting from Jubilee 55 percent - lameduck if he want to take a few - Ruto is busy filling it outside GEMA.

Raila while he was busy in Jubilee - forget to keep NASA united. Big blunder. First get Kaloi. That should take you to 30 percent. Then maDVD should take you to 40 percent. Then Weta to 45 percent.

I am saying: Ruto hardwork and genius - is no more potent or "dangerous" - than Raila Handshake & BBI card. All those big fish run from dangerous Ruto to Raila cause he strings them along. If he was not smart - Ruto would have him for breakfast, lunch and dinner. If you agree the race is open - then you agree neither Ruto nor Raila has managed to close the deal.

Unless you really believe Ruto is "sleepwalking to PORK" which is just silly.

[RV Pundit]

Siasa hujui
Before Kiambaa - I would say RUto needed to appoint strong mt kenya candidate like Kiunjuri - who'd prove to GEMA he was not a poddle.
Right now Mt kenya have entered UDA directly - front door - sio backdoor.
They are ready for anything - liwe liwalo - so Ruto can decide to make anybody in Mt kenya DPORK
That is why Kiunjuri should simply fold camp and run to UDA - his OWN PEOPLE HAVE oVERTAKEN HIM - while they were overtaking Uhuru kenyatta,
Politics is dynamic.

In 2007 Kalenjin overtook its leaders and said RAILA TOSHA - Kalenjin were so angry with Kibaki they were looking for his anti-dote - the man Kibaki would hate - and Raila was the man.

Ruto and kalenjin leaders were in Kalonzo corner.

When they saw Kalenjin were ahead - they quickly went and lead them to Raila. Raila of course knew this and let kiburi enter his head...in 2010 by thinking he could go directly to the people.

What happened in Juja was good for Kiunjuri but Kiambaa - UDA entered Mt kenya directly - and Ruto enjoy Mt kenya support DIRECT - no proxy.

Kiunjuri should fold up - Ruto should avoid Kiburi. Mt kenya are so angry with UhuRaila - they do not want to hear about sijui long detour to punish Uhuru-Raila - they want it NOW.

Raila doesnt have NASA'; stop believing in your own propaganda.

Ruto can easily make up with Uhuru; before Kalonzo and MaDVD accept Raila.

First, no Ruto cannot appoint random Wanjiku as DPORK. In fact he will have to let them square out in UDA primaries to avoid big fallout. Second his runningmate MUST be Gema - which denies him leeway to string Mdvds without ideological somersault. He has boxed himself by rejecting BBI as dynasty project.

Raila ALREADY HAS NASA in his corner. The noises are just positioning. Their strategy is to corner their respective tribal cocoons - so everyone must pretend to run for PORK - to keep Kamba or Luhya hopeful. Worked like a charm in recent by-elections. This is the blunder Kiunjuri fool made - running to be runningmate - which has let lazy Uhuru keep 50% easy. Muturi approach is better. DPORK doesn't excite people so Kalonzo and Mdvd and Muturis will run for PORK until April 2022 - when they will meet at Kasarani or State House or Uhuru Park - and announce BBI lineup.

BBI lineup is well known.

It quite simple. If Raila is not backed by anybody; he will struggle to get to 20 percent. Ruto will probably struggle to get to 50 percent without a merger.

Raila is not in Ruto league. Ruto people are just edging him so he can run....and make their work in Mt kenya easy.

Raila MUST have Kalonzo, MaDVD, Weta and Uhuru to be competitive.

Ruto nope - he can even today wake up - and appoint random Wanjiku in Mt kenya - and still get to 50 percent of national vote.

Ruto has the core of Jubilee - more or less - the hard work outside GEMA is to deal with turn out and fallout - otherwise he is starting from Jubilee 55 percent - lameduck if he want to take a few - Ruto is busy filling it outside GEMA.

Raila while he was busy in Jubilee - forget to keep NASA united. Big blunder. First get Kaloi. That should take you to 30 percent. Then maDVD should take you to 40 percent. Then Weta to 45 percent.

I am saying: Ruto hardwork and genius - is no more potent or "dangerous" - than Raila Handshake & BBI card. All those big fish run from dangerous Ruto to Raila cause he strings them along. If he was not smart - Ruto would have him for breakfast, lunch and dinner. If you agree the race is open - then you agree neither Ruto nor Raila has managed to close the deal.

Unless you really believe Ruto is "sleepwalking to PORK" which is just silly.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit - Kalonzo and Oparanya are leading NASA negotiations to share party funds, etc. Despite all the noise about Raila betrayal and gossip about joining Ruto. Next you will hear ODM agree to m-pesa them few millions - and they agree to do joint nominations or consensus on who to be PORK. Everyone will continue to insist they will be Handshake candidate. If you expect Kalonzo to declare he will be VP today you are just another Herman Manyora.

ODM invites registrar to unlock Nasa partners' funds stalemate
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/amp/national/article/2001418519/odm-invites-registrar-to-unlock-nasa-partners-funds-stalemate

[RV Pundit]

My friend I have read politics while you were in diapers.
Kalonzo and NASA are just doing what Jubilee Ruto and likes are doing - nominal stuff.
The real negotiation will happen in April next year.
Biggest opportunity all of them see is in Uhuru giving them whatever crumbs in Mt Kenya
Otherwise they know NASA or CORD or whatever is proven and failed expirement
So failed they did not even bother to run after Magara rulling.
They betrayed the supreme court.
Nothing will make NASA run - unless there is a new breakthrough.
Uhuru and BBI were to be the breakthrough.
Uhuru is weakening.
BBI is dead.

Pundit - Kalonzo and Oparanya are leading NASA negotiations to share party funds, etc. Despite all the noise about Raila betrayal and gossip about joining Ruto. Next you will hear ODM agree to m-pesa them few millions - and they agree to do joint nominations or consensus on who to be PORK. Everyone will continue to insist they will be Handshake candidate. If you expect Kalonzo to declare he will be VP today you are just another Herman Manyora.

ODM invites registrar to unlock Nasa partners' funds stalemate
https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/amp/national/article/2001418519/odm-invites-registrar-to-unlock-nasa-partners-funds-stalemate

[Nefertiti]

Kwesson

1) Why the 50-50 outcomes if people are so angry with Uhuru?

2) Are you saying Ruto can survive on his own if say Kuria, Kiunjuri, Gachagua part ways with him?

NASA is not at war. But you can believe what you want. Ruto is UNABLE to nail any of them - despite lots of effort, peddling rumors, cash, etc.

Siasa hujui
Before Kiambaa - I would say RUto needed to appoint strong mt kenya candidate like Kiunjuri - who'd prove to GEMA he was not a poddle.
Right now Mt kenya have entered UDA directly - front door - sio backdoor.
They are ready for anything - liwe liwalo - so Ruto can decide to make anybody in Mt kenya DPORK
That is why Kiunjuri should simply fold camp and run to UDA - his OWN PEOPLE HAVE oVERTAKEN HIM - while they were overtaking Uhuru kenyatta,
Politics is dynamic.

In 2007 Kalenjin overtook its leaders and said RAILA TOSHA - Kalenjin were so angry with Kibaki they were looking for his anti-dote - the man Kibaki would hate - and Raila was the man.

Ruto and kalenjin leaders were in Kalonzo corner.

When they saw Kalenjin were ahead - they quickly went and lead them to Raila. Raila of course knew this and let kiburi enter his head...in 2010 by thinking he could go directly to the people.

What happened in Juja was good for Kiunjuri but Kiambaa - UDA entered Mt kenya directly - and Ruto enjoy Mt kenya support DIRECT - no proxy.

Kiunjuri should fold up - Ruto should avoid Kiburi. Mt kenya are so angry with UhuRaila - they do not want to hear about sijui long detour to punish Uhuru-Raila - they want it NOW.

Raila doesnt have NASA'; stop believing in your own propaganda.

Ruto can easily make up with Uhuru; before Kalonzo and MaDVD accept Raila.

First, no Ruto cannot appoint random Wanjiku as DPORK. In fact he will have to let them square out in UDA primaries to avoid big fallout. Second his runningmate MUST be Gema - which denies him leeway to string Mdvds without ideological somersault. He has boxed himself by rejecting BBI as dynasty project.

Raila ALREADY HAS NASA in his corner. The noises are just positioning. Their strategy is to corner their respective tribal cocoons - so everyone must pretend to run for PORK - to keep Kamba or Luhya hopeful. Worked like a charm in recent by-elections. This is the blunder Kiunjuri fool made - running to be runningmate - which has let lazy Uhuru keep 50% easy. Muturi approach is better. DPORK doesn't excite people so Kalonzo and Mdvd and Muturis will run for PORK until April 2022 - when they will meet at Kasarani or State House or Uhuru Park - and announce BBI lineup.

BBI lineup is well known.

It quite simple. If Raila is not backed by anybody; he will struggle to get to 20 percent. Ruto will probably struggle to get to 50 percent without a merger.

Raila is not in Ruto league. Ruto people are just edging him so he can run....and make their work in Mt kenya easy.

Raila MUST have Kalonzo, MaDVD, Weta and Uhuru to be competitive.

Ruto nope - he can even today wake up - and appoint random Wanjiku in Mt kenya - and still get to 50 percent of national vote.

Ruto has the core of Jubilee - more or less - the hard work outside GEMA is to deal with turn out and fallout - otherwise he is starting from Jubilee 55 percent - lameduck if he want to take a few - Ruto is busy filling it outside GEMA.

Raila while he was busy in Jubilee - forget to keep NASA united. Big blunder. First get Kaloi. That should take you to 30 percent. Then maDVD should take you to 40 percent. Then Weta to 45 percent.

I am saying: Ruto hardwork and genius - is no more potent or "dangerous" - than Raila Handshake & BBI card. All those big fish run from dangerous Ruto to Raila cause he strings them along. If he was not smart - Ruto would have him for breakfast, lunch and dinner. If you agree the race is open - then you agree neither Ruto nor Raila has managed to close the deal.

Unless you really believe Ruto is "sleepwalking to PORK" which is just silly.

[RV Pundit]

1)  Politics is local - Kiambaa-Muguga is 50 percent local -50 percent UhuRuto. Jubilee having had a string of losses tried to get strong candidates. Kariri himself was Ruto man but they gave him party ticket and millions.

So to be on safe side - just assume Ruto won 75 percent - and Uhuru got 25 percent on his home county. Now if you put Raila in the mix - make that 5 percent - improvement from usual 2 percent.

I will study the figures in depth - to remove local issues - diaspora - kiambu is mini-nairobi - and see if there is a trend - considering opinion polls have died.

2) Yes if UDA catches fires - Ruto can appoint anybody in Mt kenya - and any complainant will be seen as sore loser - obviously Ruto is smart enough to not to do that. But i think Kiunjuri TSP and Kuria PDP will be force to merge with UDA. They can no longer negoitate with UDA as equals - it undo all UDA efforts to strongly couple with mt kenya.

3) I don't believe what I want. The reality my friend is NASA is dead as dodo...together with BBI. NASA died long time ago - what keeps them awake is Uhuru...hating Ruto..and each of them hoping Uhuru will come through for them.

Kwesson

1) Why the 50-50 outcomes if people are so angry with Uhuru?

2) Are you saying Ruto can survive on his own if say Kuria, Kiunjuri, Gachagua part ways with him?

NASA is not at war. But you can believe what you want. Ruto is UNABLE to nail any of them - despite lots of effort, peddling rumors, cash, etc.