Your understanding of politics is pedestrian as usual - Jubilee/Uhuru has definitely managed to save face here - but translating that to ODM's Raila is crazy as it comes. But like I earlier said - this was the final in many other by-elections and Ruto's UDA is doing great.
As for Ruto - I dont think he imagines a situation where Mt Kenya would join UDA directly - that is kind of coupling I could not see it.This is biggest victory in the polls - I was expecting Mt kenya would go into their own parties - and negotiate with Ruto ala Kiunjuri TSP style.
As of now, Ruto has offered Mt Kenya nothing but they are willing to join UDA - BURE
This having ended in stalemate - the battle continues in the next few months - I expect to see more hemorrhage from Jubilee to UDA
Raila-Uhuru handshake plan is to give Gema PM post... this 50-50 is Uhuru with Raila baggage. Gema in the end will vote for their own. Ruto DPORK (Kiunjuri) vs Raila PM (PK). It will not be bare Ruto vs Raila.
Raila has not bothered to venture Mt Kenya unlike omnipresent Ruto. Save for few trips with PK, Kamanda, Kanini or Kiraitu - Raila has left Ruto to fight with Uhuru. Ruto has shown his only card (Gema DPORK) and it is 50-50. Raila has not played his card -he is waiting for Musinga and Koome.
People know Uhuru is retiring and backing Raila. 50-50 split is the reality. Your "Jubilee laity are with Ruto" boils down to this.
Sure Raila now has 50% of GEMA That some crazy thinking if any; But as long as Raila is on the ballot; Ruto sleepwalk to PORK. The next few months - I see Jubilee remaining with former ODM members like Ngunjiri - and otherwise most are bailing out.
You are welcome to save face... but your hustler has LOST Muguga and barely won (by 1%) in Kiambaa. To Jubilee who are in merger talks with ODM.
UhuRuto 99% is going 50-50. Handshake has endeared Baba who will bag big slice. NASA sticks together your boy is dead.
