Ruto-Kiunjuri

[RV Pundit]

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The rest really are details; chief minister; sijui who?

https://soundcloud.com/starvoices/the-news-brief-how-ruto-could-share-positions-in-2022

[Arcadian_Dreamer]

This is a dream ticket for anti Ruto forces 

A shrubbing uthamakistani & a Kipsigis nationalist vs man of the people baba wa taifa Amollo Odinga.

We pray he picks Kiunjuri.

[RV Pundit]

We know Raila will be forced to pick PK - and that is when we floor him. He is salivating for Mt Kenya vote - who hate his guts.  Ultimately the next election will be decided by Mt kenya - who are the king makers - the rest are details. Attempt to bring Mt kenya candidates to split the vote might work but Mt Kenya are sophisticated.

Ruto has simple task to placate the mt kenya east and nip their rebellion in the bud...otherwise wakina Moses Kuria are aware mboga bado tosha.

As for Jaduong Raila - PK - then how do you placate Kalonzo or Madvd or Weta - Shida tupu. Njia panda. You got for 10% in Mt kenya - and you lose sure bet in Ukambani and Western (assuming they are willing to trust Raila the 3rd time in a row )

For Ruto to win - he just need someone like Weta to provide rigging proof margin,If Uhuru really gone all nuts out - he could get 20% of mt kenya (about 5% of the national vote).

Anyway Kiambaa will decide...if UDA win...Ruto will enter mt Kenya through the front door.

This is a dream ticket for anti Ruto forces 

A shrubbing uthamakistani & a Kipsigis nationalist vs man of the people baba wa taifa Amollo Odinga.

We pray he picks Kiunjuri.

[Nowayhaha]

The way 2010CK has structured Krnyan politics is thst  Raila will have to go with Kalonzo ss VP and most probably Mudavadi and Wetangula as flower Girls.

The so called Mt Kenya East is very Ruto most probably than even Kalenjin RV. Hence the reason Statehouse boys deviced a scheme to try and stop the tempo. It wont succed just like 92 ,97,2002 and 2007. They are very loyal people. Kagwanja thinks politics is theoretical , its not , Politics is emotional.

I think Raila advisors under estimated the hate of Kenyatta name, Coast is not only thinking of Rails betrayal but slso thinking that Ruto is genuine.
My valculation was Ruto will get 50% of coastal vote but now I think he will get 80 % of the vote.

We know Raila will be forced to pick PK - and that is when we floor him. He is salivating for Mt Kenya vote - who hate his guts.  Ultimately the next election will be decided by Mt kenya - who are the king makers - the rest are details. Attempt to bring Mt kenya candidates to split the vote might work but Mt Kenya are sophisticated.

Ruto has simple task to placate the mt kenya east and nip their rebellion in the bud...otherwise wakina Moses Kuria are aware mboga bado tosha.

As for Jaduong Raila - PK - then how do you placate Kalonzo or Madvd or Weta - Shida tupu. Njia panda. You got for 10% in Mt kenya - and you lose sure bet in Ukambani and Western (assuming they are willing to trust Raila the 3rd time in a row )

For Ruto to win - he just need someone like Weta to provide rigging proof margin,If Uhuru really gone all nuts out - he could get 20% of mt kenya (about 5% of the national vote).

Anyway Kiambaa will decide...if UDA win...Ruto will enter mt Kenya through the front door.

This is a dream ticket for anti Ruto forces 

A shrubbing uthamakistani & a Kipsigis nationalist vs man of the people baba wa taifa Amollo Odinga.

We pray he picks Kiunjuri.

[RV Pundit]

Don't see Raila leaving Mt kenya for Ruto entirely.
Their plan is 2nd round contest...just like they had in 2013 and 2017...this is what they mean by rigging.
They mean Uhuru won but should have won by 49.999 percent.
Then we have second round drama - where it now a binary choice - no spoilers - and you have seen countries which such  - where 30 percent guy beat a 40 percent guy - as other rally  against it.
Their plan was simple - it become Uhuru versus Raila - no flower girls - you run anti-kikuyu/Kenyatta campaign - you win!

Kalonzo and MaDVD will not back Raila except as 2nd Round Strategy - let all run to deny Ruto 50% - as change of strategy from 2013/2017.

Risky strategy - but with Uhuru - they will hope the gov can at least gurantee the 2nd round.

The 2nd round - there is really no explanation for stepping down for anybody - its no 1 and 2 to pick from.

This I believe is the only viable strategy to stop Ruto.

Theoritical Ruto is starting at 55 percent in 2017 minus - let assume Uhuru goes the full length - Uhuru impact - and Ruto new support base in areas like Coast, Turkana,Maa, Luhya.

How much will Jubilee retain? Will it go PNU or Narc way or KANU way.

We will soon find out. I believe Kiambaa by-election will give us clear clues...if Uhuru going with a fight or a whimper. Jubilee outside Mt Kenya is largely intact under Ruto and will all transition to UDA - but Mt Kenya is where we need to know how the split will happen - it looks like 70-80 to 20-30 percent now - but seeing how Mt kenya east have dumped Uhuru - it could end up being 95 percent versus 5 percent - and Ruto can measure the drapes.

Ultimately this election is Mt kenya to decide.....

The way 2010CK has structured Krnyan politics is thst  Raila will have to go with Kalonzo ss VP and most probably Mudavadi and Wetangula as flower Girls.

The so called Mt Kenya East is very Ruto most probably than even Kalenjin RV. Hence the reason Statehouse boys deviced a scheme to try and stop the tempo. It wont succed just like 92 ,97,2002 and 2007. They are very loyal people. Kagwanja thinks politics is theoretical , its not , Politics is emotional.

I think Raila advisors under estimated the hate of Kenyatta name, Coast is not only thinking of Rails betrayal but slso thinking that Ruto is genuine.
My valculation was Ruto will get 50% of coastal vote but now I think he will get 80 % of the vote.

[Nowayhaha]

Kalonzo Mudavadi and Wetangula will run into Railas corner.
They all dont have financial Muscle to run a campaign for Presidency.
In 2013 it took Moi and Deep state to Finance Mudavadi and it reached a place they stopped the finances all together after realising  it was not gaining tract.
 As at now they are together in the hope Uhuru and Moi deep state might finance them as you say for run off. Once they realise this strategy is not going anywhere Kalonzo will be the first to ask for a DP post from Raila.
Mudavadi as usual is confused to a level he has confused his electorate. He might end up supporting Ruto.

Wetangula will stick with Raila too.
They hoped for BBI so that the 2 tribe strategy is no longer effective.
As long as Luhya are not among Presidential or DP candidates the vote will split same for Kisii .

The kieleweke group and deep state have teied all manner of things to make sure  Mt Kenya wont vote for Ruto but its not working.
Ruto needs to maintain his support in Mt Kenya and the Presidency is his. We have only 12 Months to go.

Don't see Raila leaving Mt kenya for Ruto entirely.
Their plan is 2nd round contest...just like they had in 2013 and 2017...this is what they mean by rigging.
They mean Uhuru won but should have won by 49.999 percent.
Then we have second round drama - where it now a binary choice - no spoilers - and you have seen countries which such  - where 30 percent guy beat a 40 percent guy - as other rally  against it.
Their plan was simple - it become Uhuru versus Raila - no flower girls - you run anti-kikuyu/Kenyatta campaign - you win!

Kalonzo and MaDVD will not back Raila except as 2nd Round Strategy - let all run to deny Ruto 50% - as change of strategy from 2013/2017.

Risky strategy - but with Uhuru - they will hope the gov can at least gurantee the 2nd round.

The 2nd round - there is really no explanation for stepping down for anybody - its no 1 and 2 to pick from.

This I believe is the only viable strategy to stop Ruto.

Theoritical Ruto is starting at 55 percent in 2017 minus - let assume Uhuru goes the full length - Uhuru impact - and Ruto new support base in areas like Coast, Turkana,Maa, Luhya.

How much will Jubilee retain? Will it go PNU or Narc way or KANU way.

We will soon find out. I believe Kiambaa by-election will give us clear clues...if Uhuru going with a fight or a whimper. Jubilee outside Mt Kenya is largely intact under Ruto and will all transition to UDA - but Mt Kenya is where we need to know how the split will happen - it looks like 70-80 to 20-30 percent now - but seeing how Mt kenya east have dumped Uhuru - it could end up being 95 percent versus 5 percent - and Ruto can measure the drapes.

Ultimately this election is Mt kenya to decide.....

The way 2010CK has structured Krnyan politics is thst  Raila will have to go with Kalonzo ss VP and most probably Mudavadi and Wetangula as flower Girls.

The so called Mt Kenya East is very Ruto most probably than even Kalenjin RV. Hence the reason Statehouse boys deviced a scheme to try and stop the tempo. It wont succed just like 92 ,97,2002 and 2007. They are very loyal people. Kagwanja thinks politics is theoretical , its not , Politics is emotional.

I think Raila advisors under estimated the hate of Kenyatta name, Coast is not only thinking of Rails betrayal but slso thinking that Ruto is genuine.
My valculation was Ruto will get 50% of coastal vote but now I think he will get 80 % of the vote.

[RV Pundit]

1) They are not running for presidency - they are running to become kings of their regions - retain what they have - 2-3 counties each - and use it to negotiate in 2nd round contest.

So theoretically they don't need a lot of finance - and maDVD can confine his kamikaze run to 40kms radius from Mululu...Kalonzo can do a triangle btw the new Kibwezi Kitui road and occasionally Machakos.

Weta - I don't know what he is doing. Raila treated him shabbily by kicking him out of Minority Leader. I don't see him going with Raila - that one is out - which is why Raila attempted to kick him out of Ford-Kenya.

I think if there is someone who will bolt to Ruto easily - it has to be Wetangula.

The risk of course for Kalonzo and MaDVD is once again - we might have no second round

2) First round - we have two camps - Raila versus Ruto - and the battle really for Raila is to deny Ruto a first round win.  Raila has no path to even getting 30% without support of MaDVD and Kalonzo. He will max out 20-25% - maybe 30% if he get huge traction in mt Kenya ( I am talking 30% of Mt Kenya).

3) Mt Kenya will decide. That is where all the action really is. Ruto has no option but to give Kikuyu DPORK. I believe Raila is also going to try to go for such an arrangement. Ruto is doing well in Mt Kenya - but he has yet to close the deal. If UDA win Muguga and Kiambaa - he has to go big on Mt Kenya and enter through the front door. Uhuru will either accept to be lameduck retiring PORK or fight like a corner cat by going to war with Ruto( - but generally Ruto has to take back Kieleweke crew who are not Raila diehards - those who went in for money - likes of Sabina and Laikipia motor mouth - even Ngunjiri Wambugu being the opportunity - will run fast. We already have seen how Kiraitu has manufactured an exit strategy through Muturi the speaker to get out of Jubilee.

4) Politics proper will start soon. By December - Uhuru and Jubilee will be history going by the current trajectory - where they keep digging the ODM hole. If Kenyattas sense it going downhill - I still see them running ahead of GEMA and endorsing Ruto - and pretending all this was Raila/NASA containment strategy  - for politics is about interest. I reall doubt that a Kenyatta will trust an Odinga - after what has happened all these years. The fake smiles will soon disappear. Even the Mois would rather negotiate with Ruto - than trust Raila. At least they know Ruto is after the money - not their flesh.

Kalonzo Mudavadi and Wetangula will run into Railas corner.
They all dont have financial Muscle to run a campaign for Presidency.
In 2013 it took Moi and Deep state to Finance Mudavadi and it reached a place they stopped the finances all together after realising  it was not gaining tract.
 As at now they are together in the hope Uhuru and Moi deep state might finance them as you say for run off. Once they realise this strategy is not going anywhere Kalonzo will be the first to ask for a DP post from Raila.
Mudavadi as usual is confused to a level he has confused his electorate. He might end up supporting Ruto.

Wetangula will stick with Raila too.
They hoped for BBI so that the 2 tribe strategy is no longer effective.
As long as Luhya are not among Presidential or DP candidates the vote will split same for Kisii .

The kieleweke group and deep state have teied all manner of things to make sure  Mt Kenya wont vote for Ruto but its not working.
Ruto needs to maintain his support in Mt Kenya and the Presidency is his. We have only 12 Months to go.

Don't see Raila leaving Mt kenya for Ruto entirely.
Their plan is 2nd round contest...just like they had in 2013 and 2017...this is what they mean by rigging.
They mean Uhuru won but should have won by 49.999 percent.
Then we have second round drama - where it now a binary choice - no spoilers - and you have seen countries which such  - where 30 percent guy beat a 40 percent guy - as other rally  against it.
Their plan was simple - it become Uhuru versus Raila - no flower girls - you run anti-kikuyu/Kenyatta campaign - you win!

Kalonzo and MaDVD will not back Raila except as 2nd Round Strategy - let all run to deny Ruto 50% - as change of strategy from 2013/2017.

Risky strategy - but with Uhuru - they will hope the gov can at least gurantee the 2nd round.

The 2nd round - there is really no explanation for stepping down for anybody - its no 1 and 2 to pick from.

This I believe is the only viable strategy to stop Ruto.

Theoritical Ruto is starting at 55 percent in 2017 minus - let assume Uhuru goes the full length - Uhuru impact - and Ruto new support base in areas like Coast, Turkana,Maa, Luhya.

How much will Jubilee retain? Will it go PNU or Narc way or KANU way.

We will soon find out. I believe Kiambaa by-election will give us clear clues...if Uhuru going with a fight or a whimper. Jubilee outside Mt Kenya is largely intact under Ruto and will all transition to UDA - but Mt Kenya is where we need to know how the split will happen - it looks like 70-80 to 20-30 percent now - but seeing how Mt kenya east have dumped Uhuru - it could end up being 95 percent versus 5 percent - and Ruto can measure the drapes.

Ultimately this election is Mt kenya to decide.....

The way 2010CK has structured Krnyan politics is thst  Raila will have to go with Kalonzo ss VP and most probably Mudavadi and Wetangula as flower Girls.

The so called Mt Kenya East is very Ruto most probably than even Kalenjin RV. Hence the reason Statehouse boys deviced a scheme to try and stop the tempo. It wont succed just like 92 ,97,2002 and 2007. They are very loyal people. Kagwanja thinks politics is theoretical , its not , Politics is emotional.

I think Raila advisors under estimated the hate of Kenyatta name, Coast is not only thinking of Rails betrayal but slso thinking that Ruto is genuine.
My valculation was Ruto will get 50% of coastal vote but now I think he will get 80 % of the vote.

[Nowayhaha]

The only way to force a Run off is to have a strong Mt Kenya Candidate Run for the office. This is where Uhuru Raila and deepstate failed.
As long as we have 2 Tribe Presidency the biggest voting tribes on the same ticket there is noway we will have a runoff.
All the 2 Tribe Presidency ticket need to do is top up from North Eastern part of Coast Western and Kisii and thats  a homerun for presidency.

It also doesnt make sense to run alone for Kalonzo or Mudavadi if you are not guaranteed to get a post after the election. Kalonzo risked in 2007 and was rewarded with Vice Presidency that was the then Constituion . Mudavadi tried to ape the same in 2013 he never got anything as the new constituion has made sure DP is the running mate in elections no changing of DP after elections .Thats why BBI proponents wanted that to be removed.

Wetangula has no muscle and I believe this time he will be on the opposite side of Mudavadi. Bukusus seems they have deep rooted problems with Kalenjins .I dont know why maybe you can tell me. Its easier for  Mudavadi Luhyas to vote Ruto than Wetangula Luhyas.
I read in the star today Ruto will create a position called Chief Minister for Western voters.
Take this to the bank Kalonzo will be Railas running mate.
Uhuru main interest now is to loot. Pretendance of supporting Raila and Nasa is just a cover to loot the coffers dry.

1) They are not running for presidency - they are running to become kings of their regions - retain what they have - 2-3 counties each - and use it to negotiate in 2nd round contest.

So theoretically they don't need a lot of finance - and maDVD can confine his kamikaze run to 40kms radius from Mululu...Kalonzo can do a triangle btw the new Kibwezi Kitui road and occasionally Machakos.

Weta - I don't know what he is doing. Raila treated him shabbily by kicking him out of Minority Leader. I don't see him going with Raila - that one is out - which is why Raila attempted to kick him out of Ford-Kenya.

I think if there is someone who will bolt to Ruto easily - it has to be Wetangula.

The risk of course for Kalonzo and MaDVD is once again - we might have no second round

2) First round - we have two camps - Raila versus Ruto - and the battle really for Raila is to deny Ruto a first round win.  Raila has no path to even getting 30% without support of MaDVD and Kalonzo. He will max out 20-25% - maybe 30% if he get huge traction in mt Kenya ( I am talking 30% of Mt Kenya).

3) Mt Kenya will decide. That is where all the action really is. Ruto has no option but to give Kikuyu DPORK. I believe Raila is also going to try to go for such an arrangement. Ruto is doing well in Mt Kenya - but he has yet to close the deal. If UDA win Muguga and Kiambaa - he has to go big on Mt Kenya and enter through the front door. Uhuru will either accept to be lameduck retiring PORK or fight like a corner cat by going to war with Ruto( - but generally Ruto has to take back Kieleweke crew who are not Raila diehards - those who went in for money - likes of Sabina and Laikipia motor mouth - even Ngunjiri Wambugu being the opportunity - will run fast. We already have seen how Kiraitu has manufactured an exit strategy through Muturi the speaker to get out of Jubilee.

4) Politics proper will start soon. By December - Uhuru and Jubilee will be history going by the current trajectory - where they keep digging the ODM hole. If Kenyattas sense it going downhill - I still see them running ahead of GEMA and endorsing Ruto - and pretending all this was Raila/NASA containment strategy  - for politics is about interest. I reall doubt that a Kenyatta will trust an Odinga - after what has happened all these years. The fake smiles will soon disappear. Even the Mois would rather negotiate with Ruto - than trust Raila. At least they know Ruto is after the money - not their flesh.

Kalonzo Mudavadi and Wetangula will run into Railas corner.
They all dont have financial Muscle to run a campaign for Presidency.
In 2013 it took Moi and Deep state to Finance Mudavadi and it reached a place they stopped the finances all together after realising  it was not gaining tract.
 As at now they are together in the hope Uhuru and Moi deep state might finance them as you say for run off. Once they realise this strategy is not going anywhere Kalonzo will be the first to ask for a DP post from Raila.
Mudavadi as usual is confused to a level he has confused his electorate. He might end up supporting Ruto.

Wetangula will stick with Raila too.
They hoped for BBI so that the 2 tribe strategy is no longer effective.
As long as Luhya are not among Presidential or DP candidates the vote will split same for Kisii .

The kieleweke group and deep state have teied all manner of things to make sure  Mt Kenya wont vote for Ruto but its not working.
Ruto needs to maintain his support in Mt Kenya and the Presidency is his. We have only 12 Months to go.

Don't see Raila leaving Mt kenya for Ruto entirely.
Their plan is 2nd round contest...just like they had in 2013 and 2017...this is what they mean by rigging.
They mean Uhuru won but should have won by 49.999 percent.
Then we have second round drama - where it now a binary choice - no spoilers - and you have seen countries which such  - where 30 percent guy beat a 40 percent guy - as other rally  against it.
Their plan was simple - it become Uhuru versus Raila - no flower girls - you run anti-kikuyu/Kenyatta campaign - you win!

Kalonzo and MaDVD will not back Raila except as 2nd Round Strategy - let all run to deny Ruto 50% - as change of strategy from 2013/2017.

Risky strategy - but with Uhuru - they will hope the gov can at least gurantee the 2nd round.

The 2nd round - there is really no explanation for stepping down for anybody - its no 1 and 2 to pick from.

This I believe is the only viable strategy to stop Ruto.

Theoritical Ruto is starting at 55 percent in 2017 minus - let assume Uhuru goes the full length - Uhuru impact - and Ruto new support base in areas like Coast, Turkana,Maa, Luhya.

How much will Jubilee retain? Will it go PNU or Narc way or KANU way.

We will soon find out. I believe Kiambaa by-election will give us clear clues...if Uhuru going with a fight or a whimper. Jubilee outside Mt Kenya is largely intact under Ruto and will all transition to UDA - but Mt Kenya is where we need to know how the split will happen - it looks like 70-80 to 20-30 percent now - but seeing how Mt kenya east have dumped Uhuru - it could end up being 95 percent versus 5 percent - and Ruto can measure the drapes.

Ultimately this election is Mt kenya to decide.....

The way 2010CK has structured Krnyan politics is thst  Raila will have to go with Kalonzo ss VP and most probably Mudavadi and Wetangula as flower Girls.

The so called Mt Kenya East is very Ruto most probably than even Kalenjin RV. Hence the reason Statehouse boys deviced a scheme to try and stop the tempo. It wont succed just like 92 ,97,2002 and 2007. They are very loyal people. Kagwanja thinks politics is theoretical , its not , Politics is emotional.

I think Raila advisors under estimated the hate of Kenyatta name, Coast is not only thinking of Rails betrayal but slso thinking that Ruto is genuine.
My valculation was Ruto will get 50% of coastal vote but now I think he will get 80 % of the vote.

[RV Pundit]

Yes ultimately the "Jubilee" coalition is an unbeatable proven coalition. Uhuru is the only enemy within but he is retiring and no longer carries the vision of the Jubilee coalition - now UDA.

I think it is almost given we will have Ruto-Kiunjuri ticket. This was deal agreed btw Uhuru, Ruto and Kiunjuri in 2016- so hapo we are settled.
The threat is dealing with radarless uhuru.

As for NASA - I don't see Kalonzo agreeing to deputize Raila again - it will almost be ridicolously. Ngilu who is very bitter with Ruto (for not stopping his firing by Uhuru) is pushing Kalonzo to become Raila running mate but I don't see it happening.

Western crew - maDVD like Kalonzo still believe - they are "safe pair of hands" and cannot understand why Mt Kenya are choosing btw Raila and Ruto - they are like we are HERE

Bukusu-Kalenjin (Nandi) animus indeed seem like Kisii-Kipsigis one - look like historical beef or rivarly that not easy to bridge.  These two small tribes now cannot believe Kalenjin are playing in bigger leagues.

The only way to force a Run off is to have a strong Mt Kenya Candidate Run for the office. This is where Uhuru Raila and deepstate failed.
As long as we have 2 Tribe Presidency the biggest voting tribes on the same ticket there is noway we will have a runoff.
All the 2 Tribe Presidency ticket need to do is top up from North Eastern part of Coast Western and Kisii and thats  a homerun for presidency.

It also doesnt make sense to run alone for Kalonzo or Mudavadi if you are not guaranteed to get a post after the election. Kalonzo risked in 2007 and was rewarded with Vice Presidency that was the then Constituion . Mudavadi tried to ape the same in 2013 he never got anything as the new constituion has made sure DP is the running mate in elections no changing of DP after elections .Thats why BBI proponents wanted that to be removed.

Wetangula has no muscle and I believe this time he will be on the opposite side of Mudavadi. Bukusus seems they have deep rooted problems with Kalenjins .I dont know why maybe you can tell me. Its easier for  Mudavadi Luhyas to vote Ruto than Wetangula Luhyas.
I read in the star today Ruto will create a position called Chief Minister for Western voters.
Take this to the bank Kalonzo will be Railas running mate.
Uhuru main interest now is to loot. Pretendance of supporting Raila and Nasa is just a cover to loot the coffers dry.

[Omollo]

I'm not saying Raila will be rigged in. No.

I'm saying until there's a credible voters register and until the IEBC stops interference yours is speculation

[RV Pundit]

50K polling stations each maxing out at 500 votes - and each Final KICC/BOMAS - make "command center" rigging so granular to be nearly implausible.

The only way to improve the transparency and credibility of the election - improve agent network especially in stronghold where local iebc and community might collude - improve the technology for reporting throughout the day of voting - and of course ensure max 500 votes per station is enforced in all systems.

As for IEBC - As much as possible avoid in-breeding - Maybe have all presiding officers be non-local - this will increase the cost of election - but at least have the presiding officers at every polling station - come from another constituencies.

The biggest rigging will happen in presidential vote - where local collusion is the norm in stronghold. Here when it come to presidential vote - all the 500 votes are simply added to the community candidate - with acquiescence from all the parties present - and IEBC at Nairobi is helpless there.

A solution has to be found to avoid this presidential ballot stuffing due to local community collusion.

1) Solution no 1 - IEBC - Time - count presidential votes first - before darkness - before everyone is tired - otherwise community starts from MCA/MP/Governor - and the presidential is left for anybody to tinker with- most of the time past midnight.

2) Solution 2 - IEBC - IEBC staff diversity - especially in strongholds - find a way to send non-locals to man such elections.

3) Parties - really have strong network of very loyal and committed party agents in your opponent stronghold - with evidence gathering gadgets - body cams and the work - all wired to send evidence to a cloud server.

I'm not saying Raila will be rigged in. No.

I'm saying until there's a credible voters register and until the IEBC stops interference yours is speculation

[Omollo]

You got good points. The weakness with it is you think these are genuine mistakes that can be corrected. One of the tactics of shithole countries is to pretend that they are just stupid not malevolent. No it's always the opposite. That propaganda works on mzungu and middle class Kenyans.

All so called mistakes are willful bro. Did they make a mistake to fire IT staff give them offices downtown and forget to cancel their login rights? It's called deniability. The bastards rigged in MPs for 20m a piece but the concern of IEBC and KDF was to help reelect Uhuru. The rest was mere bagatelle

[RV Pundit]

IT staff cannot rig election - unless there is serious collusion in many levels - you can rig the server in Nairobi image - but form signed by agents will differ - election at polling stations are FINAL FINAL - so rigging has shifted from Nairobi to individual polling stations.

Polling station is final - and rigging therefore has to happen in there.

Rigging starts with registration. The kikuyu registered votes are incredulous almost.  60% of the population are registered....elsewhere it's 30% - with NEP at 18%. It mean for every 10 Kikuyus - only 4 are kids under 18 who did not register. That is hard to believe - in a country where average age is 20yrs  - even developed nations  where the average age is 40rys - registered votes barely get to 40% of the total population

Once you've rigged the registration numbers - the next battle is to rig the polling station - through community collusion or confusion.

Mt kenya votes are almost, therefore, packing twice the punch - compared to their raw pop figures.

That is why they are important. After the mass registration results in early next year - I will predict with high precision who will win as always.

You got good points. The weakness with it is you think these are genuine mistakes that can be corrected. One of the tactics of shithole countries is to pretend that they are just stupid not malevolent. No it's always the opposite. That propaganda works on mzungu and middle class Kenyans.

All so called mistakes are willful bro. Did they make a mistake to fire IT staff give them offices downtown and forget to cancel their login rights? It's called deniability. The bastards rigged in MPs for 20m a piece but the concern of IEBC and KDF was to help reelect Uhuru. The rest was mere bagatelle