IEBC unveil 2022 operation plan

[RV Pundit]

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Key dates
1) Mass registration - expected to net additional 7 million voters. In 2017 we had 19.6M - up from 14.5m in 2013. We will have close to 26 million voters. This is when elections will be won or lost.

2) Civil servants have until Feb - roughly six months to resign. Matiangi is strongly advised to keep his day job

3) Presidential nomination - somewhere around June.

[Omollo]

If June presidential nominations then I can understand the ferocity of Uhuru's reaction to the BBI debacle.

Court of Appeals will probably deliver judgment in September. The loser will appeal.

Assuming Uthamaki CJ Koome (she will be thrown out by the next president) speeds it up, the SCOK will deliver theirs in December/January

So BBI has to pass within 6 months and in time to do a series of court cases to allow Uhuru Kenyatta to be nominated. That's a tall order.

If he's still keen he may illegally extend his term.

[RV Pundit]

BBI appeal by September is tall order when it has not even started. A seven bench is yet to be constituted. The high court order of Nakuru mean COA of appeal is back to 13 judges scattered in 5 duty stations - so nearly impossible to get a bench in Nairobi that big - unless the other judges abandoned their duty station - and come to deal with this hot potato. I don't see COA seeing it as that urgent...it already hopeless and Gok has shown bad faith by going for judges who handled BBI...so many judges already in COA may even refuse to sit on the bench....making the case delayed even further.

So BBI appeal judgement by Dec is more reasonable.

Now when it come to Uhuru - he may convince NASA crew to extend parliament tenure for six months. That will be serious hot potato. Remember kenya has 2,000 elective seats. Each attract minimum of 10 candidates. You're talking 20,000 kenyans with resources who cannot stomach extending election by even a week. It will be brutal for Uhuru.

So yes I think six months extension is still on card - but what happens - when it end in court - where parliament ought to have been dissolved long time ago according to the same judiciary.Can such a parliament even extend their mandate? When they are struggling with dissolution order from JSC.

But 12 months extension is still on the card for Uhuru...ostensibly to pass BBI. He need NASA to get it done - plus he need to keep Jubilee Mps - to get 2/3 numbers. It will be hard  but not impossible.

I\t depend on the ground - if it too hostile - Uhuru will be told to finish and go.

And he needs to find a country to go to WAR with - corona by then - should be tamed - going by developed world trends. Maybe he can wage war against electronic waste or any such wars

If June presidential nominations then I can understand the ferocity of Uhuru's reaction to the BBI debacle.

Court of Appeals will probably deliver judgment in September. The loser will appeal.

Assuming Uthamaki CJ Koome (she will be thrown out by the next president) speeds it up, the SCOK will deliver theirs in December/January

So BBI has to pass within 6 months and in time to do a series of court cases to allow Uhuru Kenyatta to be nominated. That's a tall order.

If he's still keen he may illegally extend his term.

[Omollo]

My September date was very conservative and based on recent trends where no case takes less than 3 months. But as I noted previously a case where a delay would represent a victory for one side is just not the kind judges in Kenya have the capacity to deal with. We have seen advocates feign illness, other matters in other courts and suddenly discovering a certain document was never served etc.

They can arrange these things with court personnel for a small fee. The litigants are not less than 18 plus amicus, interested parties etc. It's not just that all must be heard but the sheer size makes it impossible not to miss serving all papers to all of them.

So I agree that December is plausible but then when you remember the high court took 9 months...🤔

The COA has twice as many documents to pass around and for judges to read for real. I know in such cases a bright one like Musinga does the donkey work then other lazies like Nambuye simply sign. This appeal is complex. The issues aren't the usual is was matters. It will tax even the most learned of judges

That said, if it takes 8 months or 9, and same time at SCOK Uhuru would be gone by then. Probably Raila too. BBI died with the high court verdict.

I expect Consigliere Kihara to apply for a stay once the bench is constituted. But he did withdraw that from the 3 bench which had the power to grant it. So I'm doubtful.

10 months minus 9 is simple arithmetic. He should forget extensions and focus on buying land in Zimbabwe. It's quite beautiful over there most of the year.

[RV Pundit]

Big challenge is getting 7 bench - with appeal looking hopeless (high court covered all the bases) and with Uhuru threatening judges - many will recluse themselves citing fake reasons; It may as well die for lack of a bench especially if high court in Nakuru has injuncted the new judges.

Uhuru has 12 months to go - but realistic he has until dec this year - before everyone resigns from his gov - and run to political spaces. Nairobi will be empty. Most Mps will have relocated to duck it out.

Remember for Mps - nomination happens in April - and you miss a popular party ticket you can as well go home.

So for most Mps - Jan - April is very critical - every day you have to be covering somewhere.Getting an MP in Nairobi that period will be hard.

The same is true for cabinet - many will resign and go for governorship - so Mps/Senate/Mcas/Governors - that period is critical - coz by April - it will be over for most of them.  April - June is presidential drama. And the home run in july/august.

Politically - he has mismanaged Jubilee and killed his leverage - so if he loses Kiambaa - he become lameduck as from next month.

Maybe he can quit Jubilee like he did KANU while he as opposition leader - and join NASA post-Kiambaa or maybe he can rejoin KANU

My September date was very conservative and based on recent trends where no case takes less than 3 months. But as I noted previously a case where a delay would represent a victory for one side is just not the kind judges in Kenya have the capacity to deal with. We have seen advocates feign illness, other matters in other courts and suddenly discovering a certain document was never served etc.

They can arrange these things with court personnel for a small fee. The litigants are not less than 18 plus amicus, interested parties etc. It's not just that all must be heard but the sheer size makes it impossible not to miss serving all papers to all of them.

So I agree that December is plausible but then when you remember the high court took 9 months...🤔

The COA has twice as many documents to pass around and for judges to read for real. I know in such cases a bright one like Musinga does the donkey work then other lazies like Nambuye simply sign. This appeal is complex. The issues aren't the usual is was matters. It will tax even the most learned of judges

That said, if it takes 8 months or 9, and same time at SCOK Uhuru would be gone by then. Probably Raila too. BBI died with the high court verdict.

I expect Consigliere Kihara to apply for a stay once the bench is constituted. But he did withdraw that from the 3 bench which had the power to grant it. So I'm doubtful.

10 months minus 9 is simple arithmetic. He should forget extensions and focus on buying land in Zimbabwe. It's quite beautiful over there most of the year.

[Omollo]

I can see reality starting to sink in for Uhuru from early next year if not November this one. Moi drove on Uhuru Highway 4 months to his bye bye and found a sea of people. He remarked that it must be a popular evangelist.

His security said nothing. At state house they told Kiptanui who refused to be the one and they fetched Kulei who refused and finally Mercenary Too was brought in to tell him it's an opposition rally! Moi was stunned.

Then the defections started rolling in right upto the last day of Nominations. At some point I was told they'd stay all day with only DCs calling but no politicians. A few came to beg for cash but pesa nane politicians. Every time someone like Kamotho or Ntimama turned up they'd be a near celebration. They didn't want him to leave.

They began organizing for visitors to come because having a large group in the waiting and outside the gates be it in Nairobi or nakuru