Noway can you predict Machakos?

[Nefertiti]

Lots of ifs and buts about fallout. "Uhuru, Raila pulled all stops to aid Kalonzo" shows Handshake is intact contra to your crossed fingers. BBI is a blank checkbook that enable Raila to form huge national coalition... that why Kingi can openly fight ODM but still sing BBI. Cause duhh he want to be MP/CS while Ruto offer him retirement. Ditto for Kivutha, Mutua, etc - it pure self-interest. PK will just get PM slot and GEMA will vote for their own... little to do with Raila. Welcome to trojan 2.

Wiper, ANC, Ford-K were always pure tribal parties,,, ODM has shrunk from 2007 Kanu-Jubilee 50% level to now - but still more than Luo party and second biggest party ... making Raila first among equals in BBI tent. Ruto Jubilee juggernaut is dead and buried. UDA upstart is struggling as momentum get deflated. OPTICS MATTER - losing Luhya, Gusii, Hell's Gate and now Kamba is baaad. They will be under massive pressure to score in Juja, Garissa and Bonchari... will they chicken out everywhere or brave it out? What does your 411 say?

Once you accept Kenya politics is still tribal-clan - and that hustler message is no match for BBI - you will appreciate Ruto dismal chance to beat Raila. You should also give up on courts killing BBI - it hopeless strategy.

Uhuru and his opposition groupies pulled all stops - including withdrawal of Mutua and most importantly arrest of Sonko on trumped up terrorism charges - to stop UDA.As for GEMA - toss up to where - Raila or who?  Ruto is competing alone because GEMA will not accept 1) Raila or 2) Gideon.

Leaving Uhuru having to get a Kikuyu candidate to run - deny Ruto 1st round win - and hope to make deal with rest of the tribal gangs. That only viable strategy as far as I can see..otherwise Gideon is DOA and Raila obviously has been DOA for 3yrs - and is basically been dropped.

The stop Ruto at all cost movement will eventually unravel because they will not agree - Raila definitely will not play 2nd fiddle to anybody.

[Nefertiti]

Pundit please don't cry. Realistically what i see is Ruto forming BBI-ish lineup of D/PORK-D/PM-CS - while remaining watermelon - which will make him laughing stock. How can he claim BBI creates positions for few dynasty - while offering the same positions himself?

Because of his kati-kati crisis - few will trust him to keep his word about power-sharing - while opposing or being lukewarm on BBI. None of the big kahunas will back him. He will have MK, Washiali, Mvurya, Nanok, Duale and such 3rd or 4th tier crew. It will be NARC vs Kanu redux.

2022 will be election-BBI combo.

[Nefertiti]

84 vs 16% - the comments are interesting esp about Muthama and his whisk

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-03-19-kavindu-wins-machakos-senate-by-election/

[RV Pundit]

Throwing different results; that would be where Uhuru was in 2017. The baseline.

84 vs 16% - the comments are interesting esp about Muthama and his whisk

https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/2021-03-19-kavindu-wins-machakos-senate-by-election/

[RV Pundit]

Time for deals will come but Ruto obviously long made up his mind - he is going with Kikuyu DPORK - and that is why the Katikati fellows - and Raila - are ganging up - knowing Ruto already settled on his team.

+cause he really has no path to victory.
 
Ruto has clear path to victory. I have sticky thread that should help you understand why Ruto is unbeatable..you can remove all Luhyas/Kambas..and Ruto still the man to beat.

Pundit please don't cry. Realistically what i see is Ruto forming BBI-ish lineup of D/PORK-D/PM-CS - while remaining watermelon - which will make him laughing stock. How can he claim BBI creates positions for few dynasty - while offering the same positions himself?

Because of his kati-kati crisis - few will trust him to keep his word about power-sharing - while opposing or being lukewarm on BBI. None of the big kahunas will back him. He will have MK, Washiali, Mvurya, Nanok, Duale and such 3rd or 4th tier crew. It will be NARC vs Kanu redux.

2022 will be election-BBI combo.

[Nowayhaha]

You know my stands on byelections, secondly by elections are not a yardstick to measure the outcome of General elections. With a voter turnout of more or less than 30 %.

General elections you have a presidential candidate and in 2022 Kalonzo will not be one .He doesnt have financial nor popularity muscle. Come 2022 Ruto will do better in Ukambani than Uhuru did.