This is new - link to the polls?
Ruto has a grip on 40 counties? Can you discuss Maa for instance - what camp are Lenku, Senator Mpaayie in? Mau actually makes Maa & Kalenjin oil and water. Kalenjin MP's even try to deflect by threatening far- flung Kikuyus.
Ati some trouble only in Mombasa - how about Kingi and Mvurya? Samboja? Ngilu? Kibwana? Mutua? Oparanya? Otichillo? Ojaamong? There are many Jumwas following Ruto all over. PAWNS. But few Duales and Nanoks. As you saw Duale and NFD want parliamentary and expressly defied Ruto. Likes of Garissa Governor Ali Korane are in Handshake. And of course Senator Haji. Wajir Governor Mohamed Abdi is Handshake. NFD is 50-50 at best. Unbankable.
I don't mean to be forensic but parliamentary seem to unite everyone against Kikuyu and Kalenjin. Bottomline as it is emerging if Raila and Uhuru pull BBI 2.0 - full parliamentary - Ruto does not stand a chance. It a no-brainer really - inclusion vs another 50 years of Kalenjin-Kikuyu.
Spin on brother.
Btw Ruto and Raila outside GEMA - Ruto has huge edge. Don't take Robina word. Where Ruto has struggled lately has been Coast & Gusii but he has made headway in Western (14 mps recently held a meeting to support him), Ruto of course long conguered Matusa+Somali+related. That is like 2/3 of Kenya landmass. In fact I can name in one hand counties Ruto is struggling in - Luo Nyanza 4 + Gusii 2( Matiangi is new hope)+ maybe Busia & Vihiga - plus maybe Mombasa. Otherwise the rest of kenya's nearly 40 counties Ruto has serious play.
That is why opinion poll are showing Ruto with UNPRECEDENTED 40% in opinion polls 2yrs before elections. I don't recall anybody come that close in any opinion polls this early.Everyone can see Ruto is the clear front-runner - and they can see Raila has clearly lost his marble & has no chance -
I won't be suprised if Ruto win by 2/3 (63%) in 2022 ceteris peribus.