Kibicho versus ndindi

[hk]

2018/2019 - was 6.3 per cent. This year the target is 5.6%. Medium term Treasury is 3%. We are not doing any leveraging. Just refinancing. This year I think we are set to repay 6-7B dollars and borrow 6-8B dollars. Our gdp this year will be 99-100B dollars.

The last financial year budget deficit was 7.7% and it was probably higher if we factor in things like pensions. This will only exacerbate since jubilee government keep raising budget size without commensurate kra collection to finance the budget. 

Budget deficit was 7.4% to 7.7% (need to verify the numbers from cbk) https://www.businessdailyafrica.com/economy/Interest-rate-law-seen-blocking-bid-to-cut-fiscal-deficit/3946234-5274538-10buu2t/index.html or https://af.reuters.com/article/kenyaNews/idAFN6N1HI02B?feedType=RSS&feedName=kenyaNews . The rest are just projections that hasn't materialized .

[MOON Ki]

2018/2019 - was 6.3 per cent. This year the target is 5.6%. Medium term Treasury is 3%. We are not doing any leveraging. Just refinancing. This year I think we are set to repay 6-7B dollars and borrow 6-8B dollars. Our gdp this year will be 99-100B dollars.

You keep going on and on about this figure. What is so special about 100B dollars?   That figure is well above the GDP of, say, Luxembourg.    But I doubt that you will find anyone claiming that Kenya is somehow really richer or economically better off than Luxembourg.  What is the difference?  Read on.

We did this one in Standard 6.   (You must have been absent that day.)   Instead of looking at raw GDP, it is more meaningful to look at GDP per capita, especially when adjusted for purchasing power.    How does Kenya do when one looks at that?   You can easily find the latest figures from the IMF and the World Bank, but you will have to scroll far down the lists to locate Kenya.   Go here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

When the figures are properly interpreted, Kenya isn't doing that much better than Tanzania, which you have sometimes derided here, or, say, Zambia, which has an even smaller GDP.   And the growth in the meaningful figures isn't that great.   You need to give up this idea that there are economic wonders taking place in Kenya that will soon lift Kenyans to some economic heaven.   

[RV Pundit]

Because 100B dollars is huge threshold for an economy that was around 12B dollars in 2003. That in 15yrs we have turned 12B to 100B is worth celebrating.If we keep the tempo - we could easily become a trillion dollar economy before 2040. Treasury projections are in 2023 when Uhuru exist - we will be 150B dollar economy (gdp per capita around 3K usd). That Jubilee grew the economy of average 6% is
also commendable. Our gdp per capita has hit 2000 dollars. We long became a lower-middle class economy - and we certainly will become a upper middle class (Like South Africa) before 2030.

Now what were you going on and on about - std 6? per capita (ppp)? This GDP has grown because gov is nailing many things. Electrification is at 75% from 15% 10yrs ago? We have doubled the paved roads from 11K in 2013 to nearly 20K now.

You keep going on and on about this figure. What is so special about 100B dollars?   That figure is well above the GDP of, say, Luxembourg.    But I doubt that you will find anyone claiming that Kenya is somehow really richer or economically better off than Luxembourg.  What is the difference?  Read on.

We did this one in Standard 6.   (You must have been absent that day.)   Instead of looking at raw GDP, it is more meaningful to look at GDP per capita, especially when adjusted for purchasing power.    How does Kenya do when one looks at that?   You can easily find the latest figures from the IMF and the World Bank, but you will have to scroll far down the lists to locate Kenya.   Go here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

When the figures are properly interpreted, Kenya isn't doing that much better than Tanzania, which you have sometimes derided here, or, say, Zambia, which has an even smaller GDP.   And the growth in the meaningful figures isn't that great.   You need to give up this idea that there are economic wonders taking place in Kenya that will soon lift Kenyans to some economic heaven.   

[MOON Ki]

Because 100B dollars is huge threshold for an economy that was around 12B dollars in 2003. That in 15yrs we have turned 12B to 100B is worth celebrating.If we keep the tempo - we could easily become a trillion dollar economy before 2040. Treasury projections are in 2023 when Uhuru exist - we will be 150B dollar economy (gdp per capita around 3K usd). That Jubilee grew the economy of average 6% is
also commendable. Our gdp per capita has hit 2000 dollars. We long became a lower-middle class economy - and we certainly will become a upper middle class (Like South Africa) before 2030.

Sigh.   You missed it again.    Let me try in a simpler manner: it's not just the amount of money you have in your pocket that matters; it's what you can get with it. 

Trillion dollar economy by 2040, eh?  Sounds great.   I hope that at the time Kenya will have moved from the bottom of the GDP per capita (basic or PPP) to at least a number smaller than 140.    As things currently stand, you can celebrate and jerk off all you want over Jubilee miracles and x% and trillions of dollars by whenever, but the ranks are what they are:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

Paved roads ... can't eat them.    But even if you could, many of them tend to disappear with every rainy season.   Amazing electrification: that I can see more myself, because industry and manufacturing are really humming along nicely from all that electrical juice.  :-)

[RV Pundit]

You keep shifting goal posts as kenya progress forward and scores again. All indicators have seen - from poverty to infrastructure to social safety net - are all looking up. In East Africa - we are the only Low Middle Income Country. We only country that has medium HDI. I can go on and on. Kenya is on the right path.

But obviously somebody who thinks roads should be ate to be of importance is surely waste of my time and energy.

Sigh.   You missed it again.    Let me try in a simpler manner: it's not just the amount of money you have in your pocket that matters; it's what you can get with it. 

Trillion dollar economy by 2040, eh?  Sounds great.   I hope that at the time Kenya will have moved from the bottom of the GDP per capita (basic or PPP) to at least a number smaller than 140.    As things currently stand, you can celebrate and jerk off all you want over Jubilee miracles and x% and trillions of dollars by whenever, but the ranks are what they are:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)_per_capita

Paved roads ... can't eat them.    But even if you could, many of them tend to disappear with every rainy season.   Amazing electrification: that I can see more myself, because industry and manufacturing are really humming along nicely from all that electrical juice.  :-)

[Nefertiti]

Kenya is doing ok but only relatively. It basically C- compared to TZ D plain. Rwanda B plain. Burundi E. It is hopeless to compare developed vs 3rd world. If Jubilee had a whiff of sense past their below average - Kenya would be on its way to an emerging market. Which means you're emerging from the rock bottom of the pyramid into something noticeable. For now we are not even considered a "market" - cause we are not. There is a big chasm between 3rd world to emerging - which is much bigger than emerging to developed. The demographic dividend is a big deal that can get us there.